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Weather

Autumn 2018/Winter 2018/19

265 replies

GloriaSmud · 14/08/2018 11:08

TheWeatherOutlook have some early thoughts on Winter 2018 here and Autumn here.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 27/12/2018 21:28

In the mean time fog warnings

GloriaSmud · 28/12/2018 07:48

They are indeed [being consistent]

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GloriaSmud · 28/12/2018 07:51

Thoughts from WeatherOnline (haven't looked at that website for a while.)

Month ahead - December 27, 2018
Valid from 01/01 to 28/01 2019

A murky, mild start then much colder later

There have been indications that the month may well end cold, after a mild start. Probably unsettled mid month with gales and rain.

1/1/19 - 7/1/19
A quiet start to the year. Mist and murky, some fog. Only patchy rain passing through. Mild overall.

8/1/19 - 14/1/19
Gradually more unsettled. Bands of rain passing east Mild at times, cooler later. Trending to more unsettled.

15/1/19 - 21/1/19
Unsettled. Wet and windy. Risk sleet & snow. Cooler.

22/1/19 - 31/1/19
Possibly much colder. Risk sleet and snow.

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Delatron · 28/12/2018 08:45

The met office have just tweeted that ‘temperatures have been sharply rising in the lower part of the stratosphere’ .
So I guess this ties in with it getting colder in a few weeks time?

OhYouBadBadKitten · 28/12/2018 08:59

It does :) good to have confirmation that it's started.

Delatron · 28/12/2018 09:00

Yay! Come on the snow! ❄️. Just for Jan though!

OhYouBadBadKitten · 28/12/2018 09:04

I'd like it to wait until dd is delivered back at university with all of her belongings. Grin I've suggested she packs her snow gear, if that says anything..... (other than me being an over cautious soul)

GloriaSmud · 28/12/2018 09:32

I'd just be glad of something to get rid of this 'meh' weather. 'Tis just one grey day after another at the moment ~ I can't remember when I last saw the sun!

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GloriaSmud · 28/12/2018 10:08

I think the weather might have heard my shout about 20 minutes ago of, "oh fgs, brighten up," as I've just spotted a break in the clouds and some blue sky Xmas Grin

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LadyFlumpalot · 28/12/2018 10:16

Thank you OYBBK and Gloria. :)

xsahm · 28/12/2018 11:20

I've found my home!! Thank you, looking forward to sharing the highs and lows of will it or won't it this winter with you all Grin

Delatron · 28/12/2018 14:00

Yes sick of meh here. Christmas Eve was so beautiful, frosty, sunny, cold. My favourite!

Forecast for 12 degrees this weekend? Too mild!! I’m going to a cosy pub, I want to warm up in front of roaring fires not be sweating!

GloriaSmud · 28/12/2018 15:27

Latest Outlook from the metoffice and the mid-January cold theme continues....

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Jan 2019 to Friday 11 Jan 2019:
There is the chance of some rain across parts of the north and west, but there will also be a good deal of dry weather around, especially in the south. However, there may be some fog which will be slow to clear. It will be windy in the north, and a few coastal wintry showers are possible in the far northeast. This pattern is then likely to predominate during the first week of January. Any bouts of wet and windy weather are most likely in the north, with possibly some hill snow. These unsettled conditions could also spread further south at times. It will be rather cold with fairly extensive frost at first, especially in the north and east, with a trend to milder and more unsettled conditions later.

UK Outlook for Saturday 12 Jan 2019 to Saturday 26 Jan 2019:
The second week of January will probably be unsettled in most areas, giving heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is likely, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, and these conditions will probably continue for the rest of the period. Despite the potential change to colder weather during mid-January, some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

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xsahm · 28/12/2018 15:59

I always have to read these things several times as they seem to cover all their bases. So cold snap in week 1 mostly restricted to the north, milder and wet / windy everywhere in week 2, week 3 onwards good chance of cold and more wintry weather everywhere...?

GloriaSmud · 28/12/2018 16:32

Think that's about it, xsahm

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whojamaflip · 28/12/2018 16:54

I'm supposed to be camping with our scouts the last weekend in January - 2 nights in a tent God help me!

So if the really cold snowy weather could just hold off until February I would be ever so grateful! Grin

GloriaSmud · 28/12/2018 18:11

We'll note that one down, whojamaflip!

Skynews on the SSW.

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TokyoSushi · 28/12/2018 18:35

I was just reading on Sky News about the SSW - Eeek! ❄️

OhYouBadBadKitten · 28/12/2018 18:56

There Is still a way to go but apparently it looks like there is coupling happening between the stratosphere and troposphere now. I won't pretend to understand all of this but I know it's a good sign that the SSW is having the right effect of being potentially about to induce a polar vortex split.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 28/12/2018 18:58

Sorry typing in the dark in the back of the car and I swear dh is practising rally cross while I fight with autocorrect

GloriaSmud · 28/12/2018 19:02

Should really emphasise though, these two bits from Skynews...

"While SSWs don't always result in this outcome, a cold snap follows more often than not - so the SSW greatly increases the risk of wintry weather" ~ so it isn't guaranteed that cold (and snowy) weather will follow

And...

"It will be another two weeks or so before weather forecasters will be able to tell what impact this event will have on the weather" ~ we have a little while to wait before we see what, if anything, happens....

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GloriaSmud · 28/12/2018 19:05

Yikes OYBBK

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 28/12/2018 20:30

safely home Grin

GloriaSmud · 28/12/2018 20:51

Hands over Brew and Gin ~ found a bottle leftover after Santa had been

ECM is quite interesting this evening ~ they've got quite excited on the netweather message board about it!

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 28/12/2018 21:31

oh it is, isn't it! Mind you it's so hard to imagine a big change at the moment given how warm much of Europe is.