Autumn 2018/Winter 2018/19

[GloriaSmud]

TheWeatherOutlook have some early thoughts on Winter 2018 here and Autumn here.

Brilliant, thank you!

Thanks Gloria :)

Some thoughts on the weather for next month from Brian Gaze at TheWeatherOutlook ~ cold and settled for mid- December?

Metoffice Outlook seems to be going for the same as TheWeatherOutlook....

UK Outlook for Sunday 2 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 11 Dec 2018:
On Sunday bands of cloud and rain are likely to affect southern areas whilst further north it may be brighter with showers for a time before outbreaks of rain spread to most parts by the end of the day. This changeable theme is likely to continue throughout the following week, with spells of occasionally heavy rain accompanied by brisk winds, interspersed by brighter more showery conditions. Towards the end of this period there may be a transition towards more settled conditions in the south, with lighter winds and more in the way of drier weather developing. Temperatures should initially be milder than average, but are likely to trend downwards by the end of the period with a greater chance of overnight fog and frost.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 12 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 26 Dec 2018:
At the start of this period settled conditions should have developed across the UK, bringing some drier weather and lighter winds but also an increased likelihood of fog and overnight frost. However the second half of December will probably see a gradual return to breezier and much more unsettled conditions, with further spells of rain and strong winds, particularly in the north and northwest where there may be some hill snow. Temperatures should initially be below average, before trending back to normal and at times milder than average conditions by the end of the period.

Some thoughts from Netweather ~ their long-range winter forecast has just been issued.

It looks potentially quite wild next weekend after a brief cooler/cold interlude mid week. (with possible snow for northern parts on Tuesday and Wednesday)

it's certainly gusty in London, I live on a high floor and it's quite mad.

looking ahead I'm not seeing any scary cold snaps for 10 days at least - really hoping that this is a mild winter, with no snow or ice! Not least as I am currently helping my doddery mum who will be trapped indoors if there's bad weather.

I know it's probably too early but any thoughts yet on January weather - I'm getting married on the 25th!

Bit too early I'm afraid, the met office are muttering about the chances of a cold mid January.

In the meantime, as well as snow warnings tomorrow, there are wind and rain warnings for the SW for tomorrow as milder air arrives.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-12-15

I think this post belongs in this thread...

Looking at the latest GFS looks like a polar vortex split at the beginning of January is showing. The beginning of some very cold weather again ala Feb/March this year? We shall see....

The hope for my wedding day is freezing cold and sunny. It would be beautiful if it snowed but then half my guests won't make it .

I would love it if it wasn't windy and pissing it down with rain but accept that in January it's more likely than not that it will be.

That would be a perfect wedding day weather scenario :)

The models are still showing a polar vortex split and it's starting to seem more likely (but defnintely not guaranteed) that we will see quite a change in the weather mid to late January.

Hi OYBBK and Gloria,

Just wondering if either of you can give me any idea of the weather in and around Leeds on 7/8/9th Jan? More specifically is it going to be a bad idea to travel 6 hours up from the South? Looking at the forecasts it looks like that should be before anything interesting starts... but maybe only just. What do you think?

At the moment, it's looking cold for the north (possibly snowy for Scotland) and mild/wet for the south (and it's been looking that way for a few days now.)
I'll/we'll try and remember to keep an eye on things and do updates as all that will probably change in the next 10 days!

LadyFlump, it's pretty far out in forecasting time. At the moment, I'd say you are going to miss the start of any cold weather, but take that with a massive caution that it could change.

xpost!!
Happy Christmas Gloria!

A belated Happy Christmas/Happy Boxing Day to you, OYBBK

Latest Outlook from the metoffice continues with the thoughts that colder weather could be a-coming....

UK Outlook for Sunday 30 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 8 Jan 2019:
On both Sunday and New Year's Eve there's a chance of rain across parts of the north and northwest, but there'll also be a good deal of dry weather, especially in the south although here some fog may linger through the day. Windy in the north, and generally mild. Similar conditions are expected on New Year's day, and the same pattern is likely to predominate during the first week of January. Any bouts of wet and windy weather are most likely to be confined to the north where there could be some hill snow, with a risk these unsettled conditions may spread further south at times. It will be mild for many at first, with temperatures trending slowly downwards across the south with an increasing risk of frost.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 23 Jan 2019:

The second week of January will probably be settled and generally dry across the south, with variable amounts of cloud and overnight mist and fog patches. In the north there may be more changeable weather at times, with occasional wet and windy weather bringing a risk of gales and hill snow. By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, with these conditions probably continuing for the rest of the period. Despite the potential change to much colder weather during mid-January, some milder, wet and windy interludes remain possible throughout the period.

Mutterings are getting louder on social media that an SSW is under way.

I think it was forecast to happen about now ~ let's see if that has an effect on things...
Think the warmer temperatures are showing up here (if I've got the right section on the website!)

I don't know what would be normal for this time of year in terms of colours on that diagram. It's cool though!

It's rather pretty!
This gives an idea of temperatures but doesn't say how it varies when it comes to times of year.

ECMWF has the split occurring around 5th January.
look at the 30hPa charts you can see how the vortex stretches then splits.

Latest outlook from the metoffice ~ still mentioning the possibility of wintry stuff a-coming....

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Thursday 10 Jan 2019:
On New Year's Day there is the chance of some rain across parts of the northwest, but there will also be a good deal of dry weather around, especially in the south. However, there may be some fog lingering throughout the day. It will be windy in the north, and generally mild. This pattern is then likely to predominate during the first week of January. Any bouts of wet and windy weather are most likely to be confined to the north, with possibly some hill snow. These unsettled conditions could also spread further south at times. It will be mild for many at first, with temperatures trending slowly downwards in the north and east, and perhaps central parts, with an increasing risk of frost.

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Jan 2019 to Friday 25 Jan 2019:
The second week of January will probably become unsettled in most areas, giving heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is likely, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, and these conditions will probably continue for the rest of the period. Despite the potential change to colder weather during mid-January, some milder, wet and windy interludes remain possible throughout the period.

It does look very mild to start with.

They are being very consistent aren't they.