Autumn 2018/Winter 2018/19

[GloriaSmud]

TheWeatherOutlook have some early thoughts on Winter 2018 here and Autumn here.

That’s him. Iv watched him in this morning and predict quite far ahead, the forth coming winter/summer at the time and he’s always been right. As I said he didn’t predict this summer! He doesn’t think we’ll have a hard winter but in the news they think it will be Baltic from beginning of November but the news always seem to catastrophise!

Interesting thoughts from Brian Gaze at TheWeatherOutlook ~ and probably along the lines that I've been thinking when it comes to this winter.

In other parts of the world - the IceHotel in Sweden has had its first snow of the winter and Calgary has had record amounts for October!

And Rovaniemi (Finland) has a slight covering as well now.

Useful website here ~ Snow cover in Europe.

Quick question. People keep telling me it is going to snow for Halloween. That is our half term and I was going to book to go away (UK but with long distance driving) are we likely to have snow and probably best not to book in advance or are people scare mongering and exaggerating and it should be find to get organised in advance?

Ok with either or but would be nice to have some sort of indication of expectation (eg YAY going away can't wait, vs might happen could be nice, we'll see)

HillsBesideTheSea ~ (Hope it isn't too late to reply) It's a bit far into the future to be sure but at the moment, it's looking chilly for the whole country from next weekend onwards and there could be snow for the hilly areas of Scotland and possibly snow showers for the Peak District.

If you want somewhere not-so-cold, perhaps head for the south, SW or SE, especially for later on in the week (1st/2nd November) when it looks like it could warm up slightly (again, this is waaaay into the future to be certain!)

TheWeatherOutlook's latest thoughts on the coming Winter ~ they're going for an increased chance that it's going to be a cold one.

Ooooo that is good news and totally allows some planning ahead. Will just plan to throw snow chains and the ofrs in car in case of adverse weather. Thank you Gloria

Hoping for a cold one.. so i am happy

How did I not see this thread when I started one? sorry Gloria.

Anyway, there's potential for some sleet and snow showers even in the south going into next Saturday.

I’d like to put in a request for no snow in the south east this year please. Last year I got cut off from my horses, was an absolute disaster. Contemplating snow chains for the car this year.

OYBBK ~ I started the thread when I noticed TheWeatherOutlook had posted some initial thoughts on winter. I can't believe that was as long ago as August!

Wiggler ~ your request has been noted! I'd like occasional snow/cold snaps and for this winter to be not as long as the last one!

Yes please to a bit of cold/occasional flurry but not as bad as last winter. Snow chains would be an idea. If they were in the garage you'd know it would turn out quite mild 

Thank you for the link OYBBK.

So...it's not naffed off? I didn't expect that! Dh & I were talking & neither of us can remember sleet/snow falling (or settling) before very late Nov/early December where we are.

def not naffed off! I'll put a pic on the snow thread :)

Blimey Gloria!

Wait there is a snow thread. And bollocks to snow this weekend. Seriously was this weather break just waiting for me to book my holiday?! Wait for it, wait for it... Holiday booked - quick drop the temperatures and snow... All the snow.

Been blooming trying to hail here today

Can I ask about the swirling lump of cloud out in the Atlantic right now - do the weather gurus think it will cause disruption here or will it fizzle out to just normal autumn rain/bit of wind by the time it gets here (possibly in 2-3 days?)?

I'm slightly fearful for 2 reasons -
1 - just dealing with winter storms in general when I am too busy for disruption.
and
2- dealing with heavy winds when I am supposed to be training on Saturday for sailing in races on Sunday - our coach is one of the ladies who is all gung-ho for adventure, but I am still a beginner compared to most of them.

Biddy that's ex hurricane Oscar. I'm not worried about it. It will get quite windy in the west, especially Wales and north west England into northern Scotland in the early hours of Saturday, but nothing too dramatic. Where are you sailing though? Could be disruptive from that point of view.

Dun Laoghaire - across the Irish Sea, directly west of Holyhead

Oh well, I'll remind myself of rigging and decline to go out if it's too hairy for me....probably better as I had already rearranged the hairdresser for that morning before the sailing was added to the calendar, and it would be nice not to spoil the cut as soon as its finished!!

Ex-hurricane Ophelia was quite disruptive last year - (I think that was after Storm Brian) - some stupid not quite sensible coach decided to take out youngish kids sailing and some boats got destroyed (1 was brand new that morning!), while 2 sets of older kids in 2 other classes did shore-based work instead (all 3 groups had international coaches over that weekend, and 1 didn't want to lose the opportunity). Hopefully exH Oscar will be kinder than that!!

Fog Warning for Northern Ireland tonight.

The weather looks set to become very benign through the first half of November, with some warm temperatures by day - touching the mid teens in places. A large high over scandinavia looks set to block the atlantic.

The latest GFS and ECMWF models reverse this some and bring in quite wet and windy weather this week. Both are contrary to the met office forecast though.

The met office contingency planners forecast paint a complex picture. At the moment they are saying the next three months are slightly more likely to be warmer than average rather than colder than average and that overall it is more likely to be wetter than average with the potential for stormy wet weather being higher than average. November's forecast is particularly problematic - as we sit between high pressure to the east and the atlantic weather systems to the west. How influential one is over the other depends on the strength of the jet stream and the exact position of the blocking high.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-ndj-v1.pdf
www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-ndj-v1.pdf

Looks like 5 Nov is going to be very mild, up to 15°C, like last year. It will be the second year in a row that it's unusually warm, as it's normally quite cold at 7-8°C max... We also haven't had the run of October storms in the same way...