Autumn 2018/Winter 2018/19

[GloriaSmud]

TheWeatherOutlook have some early thoughts on Winter 2018 here and Autumn here.

[GloriaSmud]

It is very persistent!
I've noticed that next Wednesday (the 16th), the GFS is being rather consistent when it comes to bringing some cold in. Could be the start of something colder?....

[nomorearsingmermaids]

Still lurking around here desperately waiting to find out if it's going to be gales and pissing rain on my wedding day (26 January). On tenterhooks!

[GloriaSmud]

You might have to prepare for both rain and to wrap up warm, nomorearsingmermaids! TheWeatherOutlook's thoughts on the rest of January. From the metoffice's latest Outlook as well...
As the rest of the month progresses and into early February there is an increased likelihood of colder weather to become established generally, which will bring an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. These notably colder conditions are by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are still possible.

So I wouldn't say cold later this month/early next month is an 'absolute 100% certainty' but it's 'more likely.'

[GloriaSmud]

(I'm probably going to regret posting this!) but been mulling things over when it comes to the past couple of model runs. I think at the moment, the 20th/21st January could be a turning point when we could see some proper snow. If it happens, whether it affects the whole country and the amounts involved, have to wait and see....

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

basically, none of us know.

[GloriaSmud]

That's about the sum of it!
Think I'll go back to knocking a few more green bottles off the wall!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Signals are growing for a cold spell in two weeks. That's something.

[Dockray]

The sledges I ordered have been delivered but I haven't taken them out of the boxes just in case I scare the snow away.

[GloriaSmud]

A wise move, Dockray

I'll just slip the latest metoffice Outlook in here....slight change but I'm sure it's nothing to get excited about!


UK Outlook for Sunday 13 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 22 Jan 2019:
A cloudy, windy day on Sunday, with some light drizzle over western hills and the best of any bright spells in the east. Some more prolonged spells of ran are likely in the far north/northwest where there's a risk of gales. By Monday it may turn colder and brighter with wintry showers across parts of the northeast. There is a trend towards more changeable conditions during next week, with spells of rain followed by colder and showery conditions, possibly turning to snow on northern hills. The best of any drier and brighter interludes will be towards the south. Temperatures overall close to average, but at the end of this period there may be a transition to colder weather with more widespread frosts and an enhanced risk of snow.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 23 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 6 Feb 2019:
During the last week of January and into early February there is an increased likelihood of colder weather conditions becoming established generally across all of the UK. This would bring an enhanced risk of frost, fog and also snow. These notably colder conditions are by no means certain though, and even if they do occur, they are will probably still be interspersed with some milder, wetter and windy interludes.

[GloriaSmud]

Interesting blog entry on Netweather ~ latest on the SSW.

Latest Outlook from the metoffice ~ some cold for the north next week but interesting few lines on what might happen late next week onwards....

UK Outlook for Monday 14 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 23 Jan 2019:
After a colder, brighter interlude for many areas on Monday, a return to milder, cloudier conditions is expected by early Tuesday. Through Tuesday, rain and strong winds will move into the northwest, with gale force winds possible in the northeast. Generally rather unsettled conditions are likely to continue for the rest of the period, with spells of rain interspersed with colder, showery weather. Snow is likely on northern hills, and perhaps to lower levels in the far north. The best of any drier and brighter interludes will be towards the south. Temperatures overall will be close to the seasonal average, but from late next week onwards there is a greater chance of cold spells giving more widespread frosts and an enhanced risk of snow, especially in the north and east.

UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Jan 2019 to Thursday 7 Feb 2019:
During the last week of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold conditions being established generally across all of the UK. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow and widespread frost, especially in the north. These notably colder conditions are by no means certain though, and even if they do occur, they will probably still be interspersed with some milder, wetter and windier interludes, especially for the south.

[nomorearsingmermaids]

I'd settle for simply dry though.

[GloriaSmud]

Whereabouts in the UK are you having your wedding, nomorearsingmermaids?

[nomorearsingmermaids]

Kent! So I imagine little chance of snow.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's impossible to know at the moment about any specific day that far in advance. What the models do show is series of cold pools moving from the west bringing cold and snow at times. It's unusual compared to our usual snow scenarios more recently that have bought snow from the north east or east.

[Whywonttheyletmeusemyusername]

I know exactly when it will snow.....next Thursday, 17th !!! I'm involved with something that is currently taking SO much planning and involving a lot of people....its been organised so well....and I can guarantee we'll have to cancel it

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Let us know where it is so we can turn up with our sledges

[GloriaSmud]

My sledge is well-polished and ready to go!

Interesting thoughts from Brian Gaze at TheWeatherOutlook.

[Whywonttheyletmeusemyusername]

[Delatron]

Ooh a snowflake has appeared on my highly unreliable weather app for next Friday.... won’t get my hopes up!

[GloriaSmud]

We have sleet showing up for next Thursday. I guess it's a start.

On a serious note, some areas of Europe has had huge amounts of snow, and there's more to come.

[Delatron]

Thanks Gloria. Yes huge amounts of snow in Austria, Greece and across Southern Europe. Just reading about it in the news!

[GloriaSmud]

Decent snowfall in Cyprus.

[GloriaSmud]

Precipitation type chart for Saturday, 19th January...
(Something like this would please DD2 greatly as her birthday is on the Sunday and she'd love a 'White' Birthday!)

[TokyoSushi]

Ooh @GloriaSmud 😁 ❄️

[GloriaSmud]

And a little something from the metoffice, TokyoSushi!

UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 Jan 2019 to Friday 25 Jan 2019:
Cloudy skies and a spell of rain will slowly edge southeastwards on Wednesday, clearing most places by the end of the day. Behind this it will turn clearer and colder from the north by Thursday, with scattered blustery showers, becoming wintry across northern areas. Winds will be strong with a risk of gales in the north at times. Thereafter, it looks set to remain mainly cold, unsettled and sometimes windy, with any milder spells tending to be brief and associated with longer spells of rain. The rain could turn to snow almost anywhere, but particularly across northern and central areas. especially later in this period. Some drier, brighter, quieter spells are likely, perhaps with snow showers, especially in the east. During such spells, frost could become widespread and severe.

UK Outlook for Saturday 26 Jan 2019 to Saturday 9 Feb 2019:
During the last week of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold weather being established across all of the UK. This would bring a greater risk of snow, ice and widespread frost, particularly across northern parts of the country. However, there remains uncertainty over the extent of the cold weather and how long it will last, and it is still possible that some milder and wetter interludes will intersperse this generally cold period, especially in the south.