How is winter looking?

[DesolateWaist]

Will it be properly cold?
Will there actually be a frost?
I've not had the winter duvet out in an age, just didn't need it last winter.

I am really liking this chap's weather forecasting skills. He professes to only pay attention to natural signs for his long range forecasts, and pays no attention to more conventional meteorology techniques such as observing jet stream position and the like other than after the event to compare his style with the more mainstream forecasts.

I stand with a foot in both camps - I need to use extremely accurate short term weather forecasts for work and rely on them for my own safety and the safety of hundreds of people at a time. But we also pick up a 'feel' for what is going on by observation of what is going on around us - a professional weather forecaster will happily make a prediction from their office based on the data given to them from instrumental readouts, but a pilot can (and does!) take that data and compare it with what they see out of the window. We are allowed to override the data we are given if what we see is different to what is forecast. Eg if we are not permitted to take off in less than 125m of fog, and we are told that the visibility is less than 125m but we are able to count sufficient runway lights that in our opinion the visibility is greater than stated we are allowed to make the decision to take off based on our observation.

Anyway. I've been away and haven't scrutinised any long range forecasts yet, but I have had a read of David King's observations and tend to agree with him - the wind has been out of the east for a while now, birds have migrated earlier, there are cooler weather conditions inland and north over the Eurasian land mass.

I am getting out my emergency water barrels for the stables and making sure my 'frozen pipe' set up still works. I set it up in 2010 and haven't had to use it since! However I have also put in place more mud-contingency plans. Please no more mud though!

Btw he is particularly opinionated about the 14-16th November being a time of very strange and possibly disruptive weather. Should be a good indicator as to whether he is accurate for the rest of the winter.

That's interesting stuff, backinthebox. I've got an engineer booked in for the 15th, so I may need a plan b in mind...

I've heard la niña is going to bring very cold weather and snow.

I'm flying a heavy jet out of and back into the UK on 2 of those days! Wouldn't be the first time I've had to land in weather the news is warning people not to travel in though. Or the last.

La Niña is very weak and there are other stronger factors that will be influencing our weather this winter.

Interesting backinthebox - I'll have a look at what he says.

I know you like observing stuff, OYBBK - time to take up birdwatching?

Please not another dark, damp, warm winter! I want crisp and cold and bright. I want to wear my glamourous, elegant winter coat with a great big faux fur trim which looks so stylish but smells like wet dog in the rain I don't want another winter trudging through a miasma of relentless drizzle, wearing my super practical waterproof parka. Bring on winter! Halloween was 18 degrees here, that's a balmy spring day - I am longing for proper cold!

The piece by Dave King is really interesting. If he's right we're in for an interesting winter!

In London. The last time we had a proper cold snowy winter was 2012. I was so happy that year.

Last year it seemed to be 14c and raining all winter. Rank.

Marking place! I love these threads and you are all my people.

(that's a hot port) for OYBBK.

Frost on the cars in Dublin this morning!! But another dry and bright day which is lovely - cold and brisk but dry and sunny!! Not even too much breeze.

The leaves have only really started to fall here in the middle of last week, which is weeks later than usual. There was a DISTINCT drop in temperatures overnight on Halloween, we went to London for the weekend with no rain coats or heavy gear (hats, gloves, scarves), just sleeveless puffas (and DD spent half of the trip in a tshirt, not even her hoodie over it!).

I would very happily take cold and dry prevailing conditions!!

lol backinthebox - my neighbours birdwatch and their forecasts from their observations are abysmal!!

OYBBK saved our Christmas in 2009! By listening to her warnings, we got the flight of a 'rather difficult' exchange student brought forward, and she was on the last flight home before Heathrow closed.

I don't think birds are any better at long-range weather forecasting than humans are (that's based on being an obsessive life-long birder). When migrant birds show up early and/or in bigger numbers than usual it is (IMHO) down to past rather than future events - a great breeding season for the birds, or a bad summer for the berry-bearing plants on which they depend for autumn food, etc. 'Dave the weather' is wrong about most of the bird/wildlife-related things he says in his report...

Gerund, that is my feelings too. I think it may have been more accurate in the past when weather patterns were more predictable perhaps, but my perception is that climate change has made long term patterns more chaotic.

AJ, I remember that

Nice report done by John Hammond here about the possibility of a cold winter.

I have been warned by my dad that it's going to be a harsh cold winter, due to the rowan berries on the rowan tree. Aparantly the more berries the worse the winter. I don't mind cold but not a fan of snow as we live in the sticks.
We will have to wait and see

You tend to get a really good berry crop after two successive years of ideal temperatures/rainfall during the growing season. I don't think there's any evidence rowan trees can predict the future though!

First frost of the winter here in Hampshire. I'm hoping for a cold, dry winter. Hate snow.

Nice link Gloria!

Just a slight frost overnight here (Leicester) ~ 1C at 8am.

Just noticed on one of my favourite webcams ~ Rovaniemi (Finland), the Christmas tree has gone up this morning!

Seem to have had such reasonable,unexciting ( and dry! ) weather for months in Edinburgh that I almost forgot about the weather section. However the weather seems to have decided with the clocks changing and the start of November that it's winter. It's bitter out there with a North wind and snow forecast for over the hills.

Please may we have some snow this winter. I've been missing it

Tis cold here.

I've got my winter coat out and I was just in body warmers until January last year. I remember a few threads around Christmas time moaning about the unseasonal heat.

Fwiw, my mother predicts the worst winter since records began every year based on folk tales.

Look at this here

Best dig out my thermals.....