How is winter looking?

[DesolateWaist]

Will it be properly cold?
Will there actually be a frost?
I've not had the winter duvet out in an age, just didn't need it last winter.

We've got loads of ladybirds too this weekend. I want a really cold one to kill all the bloody rats.

I've just had a nosey and it's a bit early to say for sure as there are so so many factors:
NAO
Solar sunspot activity
Ocean sea surface temperatures
Arctic sea ice coverage
Northern/Eastern/Scandinavian snow levels.

Well solar activity is really low at the moment and the surface ocean temperature maps look slightly La Niña at the moment. Arctic Sea Ice is a bit low at the moment and the scandinavian snow is at high altitude only at the moment although levels are decent. Certainly points to a cooler winter than last year but not the extreme that the express would have you believe. It will be much much more obvious mid November!

well obviously. Even more evident early december. ''Tis ever thus with forecasting.

Of course- but the sea ice has a blocking effect so awaiting its development can really help with the forecast as can the development with the NAO. My knowledge/understanding is only to degree level so hopefully someone much more adept at reading g the 'signs' will be able to give a better prediction!

Thanks oybbk, I shall await developments then. Personally I would love a snowy winter in London, so I can pretend I'm in Love Actually instead of huffing through the rain to work and having a boringly balmy Christmas day.

snow in London is ace until people ruin it by walking all over it. Remembering 2009/10 when dd and I almost got stranded in central london overnight when snow fell and fell and fell while we were at a show. The next winter it threatened the same so we booked ourselves into a hotel.

Yes, no buses home that year, I remember walking home up the hill and all the abandoned cars left to rot. Roads closed, pub still open, it was fabulous.

IIRC there were three snowy winters on the trot. One actually had a snowy Xmas day, that was amazing. The snow started in early December and just kept on going...

Sorry but I'm hoping for mild and dry. It's bad enough that the clocks go back tight, I just want mild dry weather and a bit of winter sunshine and an early spring.

yeah :) round here everyone waited for it to melt, only it didn't. Eventually it started to dawn on people that perhaps the snow needed moving. Then came the issue of where do you actually put shit loads of snow? Stockpiling it in the garden meant we had giant amounts.

there are some forecasters I know and trust that think there are a few hints that this winter might, just might, follow the same pattern

Ohhh kitten I await your snow watch posts with much excitement, love this run up to winter

I hope you are wrong, OYBBK.

I love you dearly but I do not share your enthusiasm for snow!

I'm not saying it's likely :) just that there are more hints for the possibility of decent cold than we've seen for the past couple of years.

Mixed feelings this year as dd has a long way to travel to college and there would be no easy way of rescuing her if there were buckets of snow. It would also have a significant impact on my business.

OK, I am definitely starting to think I need to stock up on burgers and chicken wings in the freezer then, and check the gas bottle for the BBQ. For the traditional "we're snowed in, all muck in together" BBQ on the green if enough white stuff to cover the grass falls.

As far as actual prepping for an actual cold winter and dealing with the weather properly, meh, I have my thermals and walking boots, wood for the fire and wine - although I might get a few new books in the hopes of having some quiet days at home doing not a lot!

yaktrax - perfect for those snow days that have turned into ice!

actually, since I bought those, it really hasnt been very snowy

Oybbk, I have similar but they were a mistake for me as commuting means you have to remove them before going into the station, on a bus etc fine for a journey with no changes i guess. Also odd when you get to bit of pavement that's clear.

Another reason I hate snow, can't walk anywhere. Ugh.

I bought yaktrax after we were snowed in for two weeks the year DD was born. It hasn't really snowed here since. I think I might put them in the bin...

I was just contemplating binning my yaktrax. Got caught out when there was that spate of snowy winters, not a flake since I'll keep them til then end of this winter then. DS3 is due at the beginning of December, would be nice if the midwife can get through. shouldn't ever be a problem in London but my god this city can be brought to a halt by a bit snow

Can't wait for OYBBK's proper thread. One of the highlights of the year

NotaPuffin If your YAktraxs are size Medium I'd buy 'em from you.

awww, Imp :)

metoffice going for increased risk of below average temps with a blocked scenario. (so basically high pressures mean that we don't get wet and mild coming in off the atlantic)

It also therefore has an increased chance of being drier than average.

Since I first started looking at the contingency planner reports I've not seen such a strong suggestion of cold weather. That may mean nothing of course.

Presumably that means snow? December?

at the moment it means that chances are it will be drier and colder than average, but that's for no means certain.

Blocked scenarios can mean that snow doesn't arrive too. Think about how dry it has been in general recently. Snow, like rain needs weather fronts with or without associated low pressures to form.

First frost of the autumn/winter ~ looking slightly white on the roof of the shed and car this morning. A chilly 2C at the moment.

Cold and dry sounds great to me. No fussed about snow. Could use a proper cold snap though! Warm and wet just feels so unhealthy.

IIRC there were three snowy winters on the trot. One actually had a snowy Xmas day, that was amazing. The snow started in early December and just kept on going...

This happened at a crucial, impression forming age for our sons who were ~3/4 years and ~18 months the first of the snowy years. It was DS1 saying "I am really excited about Christmas because I love snow so much" that led to a crushing (for them) conversation where we explained Xmas=/=snow and that it rarely happens at the same time, if there's any snow at all in our part of the UK. They were gutted.

There's frost on the houses here too, but we're at 7° at the minute.