Brace Yourself for Indy Ref 2

[LunaLoveg00d]

Now given the EU referendum result, it's guaranteed. I can almost hear the sounds of Sturgeon celebrating from here.

So we have not only 2 years of protracted negotiations with UK and the EU to get through, we have an almost immediate resurrection of the Indy Ref calls and more years of divisive campaigning hell.

I actually don't think she is celebrating. I think they will be absolutely bricking it as they don't yet have a clear majority, if at all. And with oil price falls and the effect on Aberdeen it couldn't come at a worst time.

She didn't want one until the polls were showing 60:40 in favour so it's too soon

It'll be interesting to see how she manages it.

I don't think there will be an appetite for it in the short term.

Not sure - the fact that all of the Scottish council areas voted Remain gives a certain momentum right now.

Yeh, I think now would be the time. Keep the lies of the Leave camp and the Better Together camp fresh in their minds.

Yep, she's said that indyref 2 is on the table and is likely. Here we go again.

I'm hoping it won't come to that, and somehow Scotland/NI can negotiate to remain in EU whilst rUk leaves, if it does come to it an indyref2 /indy Scotland is the right thing - the results last night made that very clear.

Copied from a friend on FB -
"Then we'd have a scenario where Scotland retains the trade deal, the open borders policy, dual passport, and perhaps even gains a second currency (think about it)...

We retain our trading status and currency with England, and we retain and enhance our trading status within the EU. England would need to pay for border checks smile emoticon:)

This would route most of the English EU trade via Scotland. Our shipping and harbours would get very busy, as would our banks.

Very happy to be moving to Scotland in Sept. The racist BS in England is poisonous and very, very scary.

Welcome Ocelot! Happy to have you!

Thank you Whisky. I was very happy to be coming back anyway. But now? Doubly so.

I don't think Sturgeon is especially triumphant about this tbh - like PP said, I think she's a bit more canny than Salmond and I think she wants to work towards the stage where the actual vote for independence is more of a formality/certainty.

Funnily enough I was just watching the news and the former Irish PM was on discussing an "inverse Greenland" option which I'd mentioned earlier to DH - iirc Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark (albeit with a bit of a different structure to the UK) but is not part of the EU whilst Denmark is. Given how autonomous Scotland is, I wonder if one thing Sturgeon will be trying to determine is whether there is any potential for Scotland to have some form of membership of the EU whilst still being part of the UK.

It's an unprecedented option, but this whole thing is unprecedented really so it's hard to know what is going to happen - both to the UK, Scotland and the EU as a whole and I wonder if we might see some looser/alternative membership options emerging in an effort to build some form of new EU, especially if more countries start calling referendums.

Given how autonomous Scotland is, I wonder if one thing Sturgeon will be trying to determine is whether there is any potential for Scotland to have some form of membership of the EU whilst still being part of the UK

If Sturgeon could pull that off she would go down as one of the greatest politicians we have ever had. Unfortunately she would have to drop the independence thing and actually be a concensus politician pragmatically striving for what is the best deal for all of Scotland's voters.

Agreed it's unlikely that she'll pull it off but the way she was talking earlier did make me think she's seeking some sort of option rather than straight to referendum.

She's smart enough to know that the next referendum on independence will be the last for a long time. I don't think she'll risk calling it until she is very, very sure it will be a yes.

I don't see it happening any time soon. It would be a massive risk. How would Scotland fund it? And is it happy adopting the Euro? I don't think they'd be able to chose not to.

Sturgeon did say she was talking with the EU ahead of anything else - Edinburgh as an alternative financial centre to London could be very attractive.

I voted Yes in the last Indy ref and would vote Yes again should Indy ref 2 go ahead. At this point I'm still not sure if it will.

I think Nicola sturgeon is correct in putting the wheels in motion for a second Indy ref but from the way she is talking I think she is looking to get a deal with the EU for Scotland to remain and still be part of the U.K.

Honestly it's still too early to say what will happen. I think if there is an Indy ref 2 we will get independence this time but again I think it will still be a close vote 45/55 the other way.

The EU leave voters on Scotland who voted purely on the basis of immigration and NHS funding (people such as my brother/ mother/ PIL) will need to see first hand that this is not what will happen. Only the. Will they think the best way forward is a break from the UK.

With regards to currency, it would be in the UK (or England and Wales) best interest for Scotland to keep the pound as it will help to stabilise it. The EU may require Scotland to join the Euro and as much as I would prefare to keep the pound I would take the Euro over brexit.

Scotland wont get any special treatment from the big EU countries. There are 30+ separatist groups in the EU and there is no way they are going to encourage them by breaking the rules for Scotland.

well, Nicola came back from Europe with her tail between her legs, didn't she?

According to a yesser I spoke to today Germany wants Scotland in so they will just tell everyone else what to do. This person however is blinded by nationalism.

well, Nicola came back from Europe with her tail between her legs, didn't she?

You traitor you!! :o

NS - "we can stop brexit by not signing.."

Reality - "naw hen ya canny"

NS - "were a special case, i'll just go have a chat and it'll all be fan dabby dozy"

Actually - "naw hen it isnae"

Press and SNP faithfull - "NS is the best thing since sliced bread and should be in leading the negotiations and generally just being leader of the universe..."

Reality - "Naw hen yis urny"

"fan dabby dozy"

ahem. outsize. tho outside (the EU) might be more accurate

Sadly there are a lot of people blinded by raging nationalism who won't listen to any hint of reason and think Scotland is so awesome that the UK will be begging to have us.

EU statistically?

I have to sit on my hands a lot on FB, DHs cousin posts everything and anything NS related and I'm not allowed to delete him and can't reply to anything in the interests of family unity.... He posted the other day about how the SNP are the only socialist party and how good a job NS was doing. NS herself has said that she isn't a socialist.