Brace Yourself for Indy Ref 2

[LunaLoveg00d]

Now given the EU referendum result, it's guaranteed. I can almost hear the sounds of Sturgeon celebrating from here.

So we have not only 2 years of protracted negotiations with UK and the EU to get through, we have an almost immediate resurrection of the Indy Ref calls and more years of divisive campaigning hell.

Yes, EU, sorry. Referendum brain can't remember which one I'm talking about

I'm doing a fair amount of self censoring at the moment with all the "I just want independence already" comments from people assuming we'll be sauntering back in to the EU, carried aloft like folk heroes...

there are talks about Scotland being put in a transitional holding pen whilst UK brexits, and I think would then regain full EU status once it gets independence. There are a few articles about it online. I think i could see this working.

I can't see it working because without the rest of the UK, Scotland is fucked. The simple fact is that we spend more than we have coming in, no-one wants to pay any more and everyone wants more and better services without for a minute thinking about where the money is coming from.

Is there any country in the UK not spending more than they have coming in? Everyone doesnt want to pay anymore isnt strictly true neither. Id happily pay a bit more tax . And there is a large portion of people annoyed at SNP for freezing council tax, so I assume these people are also happy to pay more.

Scotland doesn't have any EU status though, I don't see how we could be put in a transitional status.

The issue with Scotland minus the rest of the UK is, IME, less to do with the current overspending (wibblewobble is correct that we're all overspending) but to do with the lack of diversity our economy would have. There's more breadth of industries across the UK than in Scotland. We'd be dependent on a relatively small number of industries which makes it much harder to weather any economic storms. We'd have been in a fair bit o' shit if we'd become independent right before oil prices tumbled, for example, whereas that didn't have that big an impact on the UK as a whole.

I'm not up for paying any more tax tbh, I pay enough as it is!

Im not an expert and dont know the ins and outs of it but it certainly being unofficially discussed within EU chambers according to reports.

this is where i read it

wibble - yes, it's not everyone, I would also be happy to pay more and am one of the ones complaining about the council tax freeze. There are 40,000 council tax payers in my council, if we'd all paid even just one extra pound per month that would have raised nearly half a million pounds yet they are cutting small services that cost about 30k a year to run that are important to people. If we stopped giving free school meals to children whose parents can afford to feed them then we could afford to make the meals better for those that do need them and maybe even be able to offer a free meal during the school holidays for those children.

Scotland is still a net receiver of money from the UK overall and can't balance the books and has no prospect of doing so without people paying more and getting less. The SNP are constantly promising more and I have no idea how that is going to work in or out of the EU.

The UK is a net receiver of money from the rest of the world as the UK is currently running a deficit (ie it spends more than it receives - before even thinking of paying down the debt, which iirc is currently 37% of GDP but I might be wrong) and Osborne has just announced that he's no longer going to predict balancing the books (as in, stop increasing the deficit) by 2020.

It's hardly surprising that he's not predicting to balance the books any more tbh - we're probably heading in to a recession or at least a significant slowdown, there's a reasonable chance we're going to see a bunch of highly paid jobs and tax paying firms leave, our debt has just become more expensive to service and it won't be cheap to actually leave the EU.

So do you think that the rest of the world will be so quick to lend Scotland money as it does the UK? I don't think so.

Have the powers that be at the EU not made it quite clear that Scotland, as part of the UK is out. Anything ive seen has indicated IF we were independent wed need to apply but it would take years and by the look of it there's several countries would vote against us

All else being equal I'd probably expect an independent Scotland to have a lower credit rating than the UK. If it was somehow in the EU and therefore filled with financial services firms seeking an english speaking haven then it could be equal or higher of course.

I don't see us getting an easy ride in though, I reckon if Sturgeon had got even the faintest hint of a come-on we'd have heard it crowed from the bloody rooftops

I disagree but then I would about Nicola crowing it from the rooftops. She's a canny operator (some on here call it sleekit), prepared to play the long game and this is very much the early and very delicate stage of discussions. I wouldn't even go as far as saying negotiations - this was about establishing relationships and understanding positions (sooooo much easier face to face)

In past sales/purchasing/strategic relationship roles (in both private and public sector), I've never gone into a meeting and closed a deal immediately. It's always been an initial dance: understanding each other's needs, establishing if there is a mutual benefit before even thinking of contract negotiations. The ability to see the bigger, long term picture of both parties was essential to being successful.

I do agree though - it will be a tremendous achievement if she does pull it off against all the odds. **

I think she's canny, but having met her I don't think she's that canny tbh. At the moment she needs all the political capital she can get, I would have expected at least a "we had some positive discussions" type ambiguous comment had she got even the vaguest hint of positivity.

I'm well aware that you don't close business deals immediately, I didn't in any way suggest that it's one discussion and over

" I reckon if Sturgeon had got even the faintest hint of a come-on we'd have heard it crowed from the bloody rooftops"

Yy, Statistically I think you are right.

The EU doesn't want to encourage any 'splintering off' atm.

Canny and sleekit don't mean the same thing prettybird

Canny is having or showing shrewdness and good judgement, especially in money or business matters.

Sleekit is slimy, sly, weasel-like, deceitful and/or duplicitous, it's a brilliant word.

I know they don't mean the same thing: I was half sarcastically, half in an attempt at humour acknowledging that some on this thread would see what I might consider to be canny actions (not shouting from the rooftops prematurely, keeping confidential discussions confidential ), instead as sleekit because she's not being totally open about the status of the discussions because it would be premature to do so

(And I've met her too, on multiple occasions)

Now Blair, there's someone I would describe as sleekit

and I'm someone who was happy when Labour won in 1997, having voted for them all my life

...just checking. She's not quite as odious as Salmond - that's as close to a compliment you are getting from me.

She's not as odious as Salmond (also met, behaved like an utter twat!) and she often dresses well. But jeez she doesn't half turn it on in front of the cameras (it's like watching a switch being flicked), oh and she dislikes both dogs and large cats which always makes me suspicious of someone

oh and she dislikes both dogs and large cats which always makes me suspicious of someone

That's because she's scared one of them will rip open the human suit she wears over the alien lizard thing that she is underneath and reveal the truth to the world.

*oh and she dislikes both dogs and large cats which always makes me suspicious of someone

That's because she's scared one of them will rip open the human suit she wears over the alien lizard thing that she is underneath and reveal the truth to the world.*

I've met her just once about a year ago. We went into a pizza place by Holyrood at around 4.30 one afternoon with our kids for an early tea. Only ones there as an odd time. 3 mins later NS and her husband come in. I deliberated but thought it was a chance for kids to say hello. We'd just been at Holyrood having 'the tour' and we'd been talking all day about NS / politics. I kind of lurked a bit so she could ignore me easily if she wanted but she came over, spoke to the kids, posed for a pic with them and was generally charming. Dammit!