Reform party seems to be ahead in my area.

[Moier]

Any of you voting Reform?
My area was always labour..( I've never voted labour).. but according to what I'm reading.. it's surprisingly gone the other way.
Will have to wait and see.
Did him being in I'm a Celebrity make him more popular..or is the extreme right the way to go?

The big problem for pollsters in the past was people not wanting to admit they intended to vote Tory. They adjust for that, however, it can still be an issue. I wonder whether it'll be the opposite for Reform, ie, people saying noisily that they will but then forgetting to cast their vote 😆 I hope so.

From that graphic, here are the places that Reform are projected by one or more pollsters to win:

Ashfield
Barnsley South
Basildon and Billericay
Clacton (most pollsters)
Boston & Skegness
Exmouth and Exeter East
Isle of Wight West
Louth and Horncastle
Mid-Buckinghamshire
Newark
North-west Leicestershire
Skipton & Ripon
South Basildon and East Thurrock

So, a few places.

I think they'll get Clacton and maybe Ashfield but not the others, and that assumes the current polls reflect that their vote on polling day.

In Barnsley South @TomPinch 11 of the polls predict Labour and 1 Reform.

Ditto for Isle of Wight West. (Where Tice lives, did they ask him?!)

In Newark it's 10 polls predicting Labour. 1 Conservative and 1 Reform.

And so on.

In 632 seats they have no chance at all

I'll give you Clacton. They must have picked it for a reason.

I agree, there's no chance of them winning all those seats. But the point is that some pollsters do project then ahead in some places.

Clacton might actually elect Farage - they elected Carswell who was UKIP in 2015. But on the other hand Carswell was an incumbent and while he was UKIP he was (I'm told) sincere, not at all Trumpesque, and well liked in the constituency. So Clacton might reject Farage, just like in the other places he's tried. I really hope so.

Perhaps they're more likely to win Ashfield, where they have the incumbent.

You can look up the aggregated MRP predictions for your constituency here:

inglesp.github.io/apogee/

Great link @verdantverdure !

Across the 12 different polling orgs shown the Tories have just 14 seats where all 12 currently predict the Tories will win, and just 15 more where in 11/12 predict them winning. In contrast to 354 seats for Labour where all 12 agree, and another 41 where its 11/12 ' and 21 go12/12 for Lib Dems, with a further 15 with 11/12. And none where all 12 predict a Reform (or Greens) win.

8/12 predict Reform to win Clacton, but no other seat has even half the polling orgs predicting a victory for them.

9/12 have the Greens for Brighton Pavillion; Bristol Central is a 6-6 split between Green and Labour.

and hope we wake up in a better situation on Friday.

I remain very confident that we will. Although I confess I do plan to stay up and watch the results. Just to make sure.😀

I plan to stay up and keep an eye on them too 😁

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for neither.

Reform have a vociferous social media presence, that's for sure.

Reform are on the rise due to the two main parties not being very attractive to vote for. Always how the hard right rises.

I think this could be a big problem after the election. If the conservatives suffer a historic defeat partly due to reform peeling off its voters it really does need a strategy to win them back. Does the Tory party then have to track to the right and maybe encompass ideas (and perhaps characters) people find impalatable.

I think we may see the same political pressures in France where it looks like National Rally are perhaps going to gain control and we can't ignore the far right as a political force. I think maybe given the snap nature of the election the background of a lot of Reform candidates has obviously not had the level of scrutiny deserved.

@mids2019 The issue is racists cannot be satisfied as clamping down on brown people hurts not caused by brown people will never salve those hurts.
Dissatisfaction with brexit and there being brown people are because of big problems with the logic of brexit and national deficit and inequality. Reform voters will just want brexit done properly and brown people punished enough that the super wealthy decide that they have enough and demand to give more back.

If Reform beat the Tories in one seat and the Lib Dems beat them in forty seats wouldn’t it make more sense to move away from far right populism?