Missing Woman Nicola Bulley 4

[ofwarren]

www.lep.co.uk/news/crime/nicola-bulley-day-13-latest-updates-as-search-for-missing-mum-continues-4017066

Lancashire Evening Post has just posted this update.

i doubt it. They are sticking to the fallen in the river theory no matter what.

The guy who chased the woman at the canal has been spoken to by the police.

For people saying that she would never leave her children/dog etc etc and she's just a normal mum like them she couldn't possibly have done this, or that, or the other - people can and do up and leave their lives quite frequently.

There's a first time for everything, and assumptions of one thing or another leads to crucial theories being overlooked or dismissed.

Someone who wanted to leave their life behind in this day and age would have to have done some watertight planning as to how they were going to do it - and making it look like an accident/abduction is a good way to buy yourself some time to get away safely. Not necessary likely, but not impossible.

There was a very interesting thread on MN last year where a few posters talked about walking away from their old lives and starting again. There were lots of reasons given as to why they did what they did and why it was best not to let their families know where they were.

The case is perplexing - but posters asserting that a person they don't know 'would' or 'wouldn't' behave in a particular way based on their own world view is just daft. There is balance of probability, that's all. The police don't have unlimited resources, they have to investigate the most probable line of inquiry first.

As I understand it, gaining access to data from phone/ internet companies is not something that is rushed through - the bureaucracy around data protection moves incredibly slowly even in high profile cases. The gathering of evidence takes a while.

I've got no skin in the game, I'm just interested at the assertions that NB 'would definitely' have done XY or Z.

@LadyOfTheCanyon

I agree.

It is not possible for anyone to rule out that she staged her own disappearance.

It's at least as possible as any of the other options.

It's rare but women can and do walk out on their families.

@ofwarren exactly, it could be either random or pre-planned. There was definitely an available window of time to have done something without being seen, given that it was 10.50 before police were called. So really it’s all entirely possible, the only part that’s really puzzling is where she is now but unless she was somehow taken away from the scene by one of the 700 passing cars, she has to be in a building locally. I so hope they find her

I really thought Peter would find her.
The whole situation feels scarier than ever. The family and the villagers must be beside themselves with worry.

If she was in one of the 700 cars willingly, that footage is never going to be available

I thought exactly that when I saw the photos today.

I'm not a local at all, but are tensions rising between locals and the police?

She must be somewhere. No matter what she will be found.

I don't live there any more, I'm the next village over so am not seeing what's happening on the ground.

I may be misunderstanding you here. The bit that's not covered by CCTV is the entrance to the path at the bridge (Blackpool Lane) yes? The broken CCTV is at either Rowanwater or Wyreside site?

Is there another broken CCTV at Blackpool Lane?

Sorry, didn't realise the post had been deleted, mods could you delete my post replying to it please?

So if the police weren't called till 10.50 what was happening between 9.33 when the phone was found and when the police arrived? Doesn't the window look a bit bigger than the 10 minutes the police believe? The 10 minutes is all predicated on Nicola putting the phone on the bench herself.

Take that requirement away then the time window suddenly looks much bigger.

Is there an elephant in the room that she may have chosen to end her own life rather than start another one?

Are the police possibly aware of a vulnerability?

@LadyOfTheCanyon

I understand what you're saying, in that you never know whats going on behind closed doors and how people feel. It just seems vanishingly unlikely though.

Even if we assume she wanted to do that, how would you do it. I just don't think its possible in 2023. There are cameras everywhere and facial recognition software. You'd never be able to walk down a street anywhere, particularly as her face has been on the front page of BBC News for 2 weeks. You'd have to leave the country, and that would leave some sort of financial trail behind, you'd need to get a new passport somehow which means you'd have to confide in criminal gangs who'd know who you are and would probably use that to blackmail you knowing what you were doing.

Plus on top, if you were planning on doing it think how nervous you'd be stressing over the details, you'd struggle to not give off any signs to any of your friends or family.

The probability of it is so small it can practically be discounted I think.

Last time I said somewhere about her pre planning leaving I got my head ripped off by a local who 100% knew she would not do that at all!!!

Just like all those families who 100% knew they loved ones wouldn’t walk away or commit suicide. These people go about their normal lives to not raise suspicion and then when they feel it’s right/planned enough they do it. Leaving behind everyone shocked with only a picture a day or two before beaming smile with family or friends normally too.

It is interesting (not wrong, not right but interesting) that if this was a young dad then we would probably be much more open to the idea that he just decided he'd had enough and made himself vanish but we can't seem to imagine that a woman could do this. I agree it's less likely but it isn't impossible

So an hour and forty minutes between last sighting and police being called?

Her friend Tilly Ann has done a public post on Facebook
m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid0L1aEjWGTUrrcY3XfXSCFtsqqZWk2wyVYYLNFGg5d3YBBdeiyPqo22KCQwYRTyjBal&id=554602984

That is my understanding but I stand to be corrected, there is so much conflicting info around.

The police have put their entire theory on Nicola leaving the phone on the bench.

If you are willing to change your appearance vastly and have a good plan it’s not impossible to vanish still. Stashed cash somewhere safe safe but off grid ish for a long time or possibly even help from a friend or family member who’s keeping quiet. Using an old call and text type only phone on pay as you go for communication prior if you are having help. Hide long enough and nobody would probably been looking for you either really. How many mums on the school run are almost identical in their identical school run outfits.

People who have spent time planning to disappear don’t leave in the middle of a dog walk, be sensible.

Why would the first dog walker tie willow up with string if she had the lead and harness??

Exactly.

I posted about this last night on the last thread, here www.mumsnet.com/talk/in_the_news/4737640-missing-woman-nicola-bulley-3?page=14

In one of the interviews yesterday PF said "they (the police) were here, straight here that day when Nicola went in"

Below is the video and the comment was at around 38-40s not the video. I posted about this and half an hour or so later, I watched the video again and they had removed the bit where he said "that day when Nicola went in".

You can see a jump in the video where the edited it from around 35-38s into the video.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11723099/Diving-expert-leading-hunt-Nicola-Bulley-asks-partner-enemies-stalkers.html#v-4751013328855254554

I think they asked the Daily Mail to remove his comment about NB going in the water.

Obviously today he's talking about the original entry point twitter.com/TalkTV/status/1623316193468719104

He knows that the police know she entered the water. There must be some clear evidence.

He is, however, confused why she cannot be found in the water and believes she isn't the river now. It's a bit cheeky of him to reiterate his comments about her entering the water as I presume the police doesn't want this information out for some reason even though they believe she is in the water. It's all very, very odd.