Do you think now the world has it's eyes opened to the true horror unfolding in Syria, they will now actually do something about ISIS?

[Whoknewitcouldbeso]

I know efforts are being made by some nations to try and counteract ISIS with the aid of drones and counter intelligence but I wonder if the refugee crisis may serve to instigate some direct action by more of the World's heavyweights?

I have just read the story of how Aylan's father has traveled back to Kobane to bury his family and has no intention of leaving the country again. It is his home and he was only leaving to try and save his family after 11 of his extended family were murdered by ISIS. There has been so much talk about migrants and asylum seekers and trying to help those who are fleeing, but most of these people would not be fleeing if it wasn't for the fact that they fear for their lives.

Surely we should be doing more to make their own country safe or do you think that's not possible and the only solution is to allow the ethnic cleansing to carry on taking place.

World War 3

'is this is really scary what will happen next> they have really trod on US toes giving them an hour to get out etc..'

No, Russia and Putin have called the US's bluff. Obviously the meeting between Obama and Putin couldn't have gone very well and Putin wanted to humiliate Obama by acting without notifying him first, if it is true what is being reported. We don't really know if Obama was notified first.

It is all over now, because bluff has been called. Russia will now help Assad sort out Isis who America have been bombing for a year but who have grown stronger during that period and who have taken more of Syria.

'could this lead to all out war '

Very doubtful. Depends what America does next. I think bluff has been called and it is over, but I may be wrong.

'Why does Russia want to keep Assad'

Because Assad and his army are the only on the ground troops who can combat Isis and stop the spread of the terrorists who will behead Christians, Druze and Kurds if they take over the whole country. America's bombing has failed to stop Isis, so Russia will now help Assad finish them off. Obviously they are funded by outside forces, but since Iran and Iraq are joing Russia in intelligence and Iranian volunteers and Hezbollah will fight Isis, then the backers of Isis will have to drop the game in case the war spreads.

Russia wants to stop Syria turning into the failed state that Libya turned into after Cameron and Sarkozy bombed it.

The real reason it is all finally coming to an end after 5 years is that Germany has put its foot down and said it wants it over to stop the refugees coming to Germany. I think they have probably doen a deal with Putin asking him for help to end the war and that is what he is now doing.

'they have really trod on US toes giving them an hour to get out etc'

They didn't tell the US to get out. They just informed them that they would start bombing in 1 hour's time. Not much notice, not much respect, humiliating but that obviously shows that relations are not good between them and Russia has had enough and is prepared to humiliate the US and flex its muscles.

Finnish politician, Alexander Stubb, was on Channel 4 News and said that there is a lot of face saving going on and Europe needs the refugee crisis sorted because it is critical for the EU. Reading between the lines, Russia will sort it and end the war getting the EU out of a hole and there will lots of phoney face saving by blaming Putin but secretly the Germans and the EU need the refugee crisis sorted or the entire EU may face its biggest crisis yet as European people abandon the political class who are failing to get a grip of the problem.

There is a danger of war if there is an accident where a US plane or a Russian plane is accidentally shot down by the other side if they don't coordinate attacks.

"FOX NEWS National Security Expert: “Accident” In Syria Could Lead To Conflict Between Russia And The U.S."

radio.foxnews.com/2015/09/30/fox-news-national-security-expert-accident-in-syria-could-lead-to-conflict-between-russia-and-the-u-s/

If any side wants war, and warmongers do exist, then an "accident" could be made to happen and that is dangerous because it could escalate to all out war because of the humiliation and the need to save face. So it is dangerous and it depends what the power brokers want to happen.

But surely both sides know that there can be no winners, M.A.D has kept the peace all this time. I'm getting a bit scared tbh.

Article by Simon Jenkins in the Guardian

"Why the west should listen to Putin on Syria
Putin is right. Everyone knows Putin is right, that the only way forward in Syria, if not to eternal slaughter, is via the established government of Bashar al-Assad and his Lebanese and Iranian allies.

That is the realpolitik. That is what pragmatism dictates."

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/sep/29/west-vladmir-putin-syria-us-assad

Everyone knows it and the important thing is that Germany knows it and Germany needs the refugee crisis sorted out and that is why Putin will now be listened to. There will be lots of bluff, bluster and face saving, but everyone knows it is the only solution and everyone knows that the backers of the Jihadis have failed in their 5 year attempt to topple Assad.

Is Germany in NATO?

'But surely both sides know that there can be no winners, M.A.D has kept the peace all this time.'

No, one side is always stronger and may possibly risk it. These thinsg are planned and worked out for years in advance. We don't know if someone would risk it. Conspiracy theorists say that what really drives the decision to war is the economy and the state of financial markets. Sometimes war is a way out of financial collapse. Hopefully we aren't near that, but some conspiracy sites say we are getting closer.

I think everyone knows there is no other solution and the Germans are secretly happy that someone will finally sort Isis out and end the war and end the refugee crisis, so I think there won't be a wider war because behind the scenes everyone has agreed that there is no alternative nut to end the war that has caused teh refugee crisis.

To save face, Obama and Cameron need Assad to go, but Russia and Iran hold all the cards and I think Obama is big enough to not be worried about it.

'Is Germany in NATO?'

Yes, and so is Turkey and Turkey are anti-Assad and lots of reports say that they have helped Isis etc secretly, but I think that even Erdogan realises now that there is no alternative and the war must end.

Russia is saying that the Assad’s who for 40-years ruled Syria with terrible Human Right record can still control Syria, but needs more land than the current 20% of Syria it occupied – but instead of attacking the huge ISIS area on one side of the country, it is attacking the moderate Syrian forces on the other side of Syria.

Russia says that Alawite/Shia President Assad who religiously represents 18% of the population (in an region where that really matters) would hold an election at any time – knowing that about 12 million people (about half the population and mainly moderate Sunni Syrians) are displaced from their homes – so may not receive their election forms in the post!

Putin/Iran have been getting their anti Sunni Muslims/Western ducks in a line, as western leaders are letting Shia Iran off sanctions and allowing them in to help the now post Sunni Saddam, Shia Iraqi government.

*The danger to the West is this Russia-Iran-Iran-Jordan block threatening the other (rich) Sunni Gulf States - more than Iran influence via Shia citizens in other countries is already doing - but also Turkey and Israel will feel threatened as well..

In the Yemen (on another Saudi Arabian border) Iran support the Shia/Shiites rebels there, and in Sunni monarchy Bahrain on another Saudi Arabian border (connected by a Causeway) Iran has been supporting the Shiites there – and Bahraini authorities have just found explosives, no doubt to step up civil/religious disobedience there.
townhall.com/news/world/2015/09/30/bahrain-police-find-15-tons-of-explosives-make-arrests-n2059348

So the lines are being drawn, if Putin gets his Assad way and this new Russian/Iranian block of Middle East influence forms, there WILL HAVE TO BE a massive rearming of the western allies (Gulf States, Israel and Turkey etc) as a COUNTERBALANCE – sadly just like the old days – with Americans bases increasing. IMO

Russia has had enough and is prepared to humiliate the US and flex its muscles.

Russia is not a democracy like the U.S. so can move much faster, and Putin is shown up every day to his own people due to Russia's economic problems, much of them due to western (Ukraine related) sanctions - the problem via Russian citizens would have been needing to put troops on Syrian soil and getting the casualties they received in Afghanistan - but Russia even have THAT BASE COVERED, bringing Afghanistan mercenaries to fight Syrian free rebels and ISIS.

”Iran Pays Afghans to Fight for Assad”
ttp://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304908304579564161508613846

”The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, recruits and trains Shiite militias to fight in Syria. Details of their recruitment efforts were posted this week on a blog focused on Afghan refugees in Iran and confirmed by the office of Grand Ayatollah Mohaghegh Kabuli, an Afghan religious leader in the Iranian holy city of Qom. A member of the IRGC also confirmed the details.”

”Both Iran and Hezbollah have openly taken credit for their efforts in Syria. Gen. Hossein Hamedani, a senior Guards commander involved in planning war strategy in Syria, said last week that with God's help, Iran had trained an extra 130,000 soldiers ready for dispatch.”

'there WILL HAVE TO BE a massive rearming of the western allies (Gulf States, Israel and Turkey etc) as a COUNTERBALANCE'

There won't. Their bluff has been called and it is all over. Saudi Arabia are in trouble and I don't think the Americans are going to help them which is why they did the deal with Iran. There is a complete realignment in the Middle East as the US intends to pivot to Asia to counter China which it sees as its real future threat. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and all the rest will have to do as they are told by America.

America does not want to put troops on the ground to defeat Isis. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and that lot can't be relied on because there have been reports that they have been secretly supporting the Jihadis. So the US is going to let the only ground troops motivated to finish the funded Jihadis off and that is Assad's army, Hezbollah and the Iranian volunteers. Russia will supply them with intelligence abd back them up with air strikes and the Jihadis will meet their match and be finished off.

Saudi Arabia has told Putin not to get involved but Saudi Arabia is a minnow in the big scheme of things and all the money they use to fund Jihadis won't help them.

I repeat; The danger to the West is this Russia-Iran-Iran-Jordan block threatening the other (rich) Sunni Gulf States - more than Iran influence via Shia citizens in other countries is already doing - but also Turkey and Israel will feel threatened as well.

Whats all over fool, at the moment we go through the Russian-Ukrainian play, where Putin pretends to listen, denies, while doing exactly what he wants - until all of a sudden, like in Afghanistan, the Free Syrian rebels suddenly start shooting Russian aircraft out of the skies - and don't need the CIA to do that, the rich Gulf States will buy/supply.

America may be near energy reliant but it realises that there CANNOT be an unstable Middle East and its affects on the world economy and a Syria (that invaded the Lebanon for 20-years and kept attacking Israel) allied with a militarily active/expansionist Russia and Iran, will be capable of anything.

When was the last time due to perceived Middle East threats was there NOT a massive counterbalance put in place - for Israel, Christmas(?) has just come early.

Russia has made the first moves, it ain't over to the fat Assad sings, and he may not feel secure enough to do that for a while.

P.S. An that is an Israel WARNING the West they could not trust Iran not to have nukes and should not relax sanctions.

I wonder how much it costs each for a bees-pyjamas-state-of-the-art fired from shoulder anti aircraft rocket - as I'm sure they are already winging their way to the Syrians moderate citizens, apparently being bombed by accident.

How many highly expensive Russian planes can a near bankrupt Russia afford to lose?

'but also Turkey and Israel will feel threatened as well'

Of course they will feel threatened which is why Netanyahu addressed the Senate invited by Republicans without agreement from Obama. But Obama has already started the realignment and done a deal with Iran and Saudi arabia are very worried indeed because all their money to pay for Eqyptian air strikes against Yemenis won't help them against Iran in the realigned Middle East.

'Whats all over fool"

It;s over for Saudi Arabia because America has done the Iranian deal and is starting its pivot to Asia. The Saudis are no longer sure anyonbe has their back and the Jihadis they fund are going to be wiped out so can't help them.

' the Free Syrian rebels suddenly start shooting Russian aircraft out of the skies'

Get real. If they do that, what do you think Putin is going to do? He is not politically correct.

'the rich Gulf States will buy/supply'

They will be in big trouble if they don't stop funding the Jihadis.

'America may be near energy reliant but it realises that there CANNOT be an unstable Middle East '

That is why America has done the deal with Iran. Iran will begin to be the force that provides stability for America in the Middle East. That is why the Saudis are so worried about Obama's pivot to Asia and the Irainian nuclear deal. As Trump says, America have spent trillions in teh region and they are not going to do all the work there. They will let others sort out stability for them.

"Trump on Putin Controlling Syria: ‘OK, Fine,’ Him Fighting ISIS ‘Wonderful Thing,’ ‘Very Little Downside’

When asked what he thinks Putin is doing in the Middle East, Trump stated, “Well, we spent $2 trillion, thousands of lives, wounded warriors all over, and Putin is now taking over what we started, and he’s going into Syria, and he frankly wants to fight ISIS, and I think that’s a wonderful thing. You know, I said that a year ago and everybody said oh, that’s terrible. If he wants to fight ISIS, let him fight ISIS. Why do we always have to do everything. But he wants to go in. He wants to fight ISIS. Now, he wants to keep, as you know, he wants to keep your leadership, your current leadership, Assad in Syria. Personally I’ve been looking at the different players, and I’ve been watching Assad, and I’ve been pretty good at this stuff over the years, cause deals are people. And I’m looking at Assad and saying, ‘Maybe he’s better than the kind of people that we’re supposed to be backing.’ Because we don’t even know who we’re backing.”

www.breitbart.com/video/2015/09/29/trump-on-putin-controlling-syria-okay-fine-him-fighting-isis-wonderful-thing-very-little-downside/

US policy is changing and the Saudis are worried.

'When was the last time due to perceived Middle East threats was there NOT a massive counterbalance put in place - for Israel, Christmas(?) has just come early.

No, the difference is that America is changing its policy and pivoting to Asia. It's over and Saudi Arabia is going to have to get used to a very different world and if they keep funding Jihadis, they will be in big trouble.

'How many highly expensive Russian planes can a near bankrupt Russia afford to lose?'

That's propaganda. They aren't bankrupt and they will defeat the Jihadis by helping Assad to do it.

Fears of financial crisis rise as Russia’s economy shrinks
www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a4b9944c-3f77-11e5-b98b-87c7270955cf.html

And the worst is yet to come, via oil down a $20 a barrel and a Russian banking crisis - aren't you being given the memo?

You have to be able to distinguish fact from fiction.

A few weeks ago, Cameron said Assad had to be removed by "hard military force". The fact is he is going nowhere.

IF I was a strategic thinker, I'd say that the purpose of this Russia-Iran-Iran-Jordan axis of Human Right evil, already controlling vast oil gas/reserves, IS to 'corner the market' by expanding into the Kuwaits (Iraq knows the route) of the Gulf - and driving the energy prices up.

If you think the west will allow that move by the Russian Chuckle Brothers by NOT putting in place a huge military counterbalance - you are being misled by your handler.

Whats the point watching China, when the rest of the world can go to hell in a hand cart?

A few weeks ago, Cameron said Assad had to be removed by "hard military force". The fact is he is going nowhere.

'A week is a long time in politics', especially in democracies that move a tad slower than democracies.

But good, Cameron smoked the Russian Bear out of its cave of pretence, and now old grizzly overtly has shown its intend - bombing the Assad forces/Syrian Rebel lines, not ISIS - no doubt being co-ordinated with the Iranian/Afghanistan troops on the ground fighting Russia's (previous) secret war by proxy.

.....'A week is a long time in politics', especially in democracies that move a tad slower than dictatorships.* .....