On LBC a pollster is talking about an extinction level event for the Tories with a resurgent Reform.
The scale of the rout under this projection means many of the Tories' biggest cabinet figures are now under threat in this campaign.
Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, Alex Chalk, the justice secretary, David Davies, the Welsh secretary and Johnny Mercer, the armed forces minister in the cabinet are all on course to lose their seats under this projection.
Twelve of the 26 members of the cabinet who are running for re-election are at risk in total. In addition, the future of Steve Baker, Cabinet Office minister, and Bim Afolami, Economic Secretary to the Treasury, and Lee Rowley, housing, planning and building safety minister, are all hanging in the balance, the projection suggests. Twenty-two of the 45 ministers of the government confirmed to stand are at risk.