Farage has announced that he'll be making an announcement...

[Westfacing]

... an 'emergency' announcement, no less.

Presumably to announce he's finally plucked up courage to put his money were his big mouth is and stand for Parliament, after bottling it!

I know there are plenty of reasons, language based why people want to come here, like people from the French speaking colonies want to go to France.. But honestly!. I absolutely love the UK and I'm proud of our country, but leaving France??
It's huge! The roads are clear, the countryside is vast and beautiful, their language is beautiful, the culture and the food... Why!! Learn some of French!!..

You do know that the majority of migrants stay in France?

A big pull factor is the belief that its easy to work here in the black economy, prob true, no ID cards, no enforcement of employment laws and almost a zero chance of being deported.... FFS we even wouldn't send back a known terrorist to Libya.....the Reading killer.

If you want to come to the UK via very risky methods but you ve a chance of being sent back, that is a deterrent and even you cannot escape the simple fact that once we left the EU, boat crossings shot up.

You obviously hate the idea that leaving the EU has downsides but that doesn't mean there aren't any, brexit was a big Fuck off to the EU and they've acted accordly.

So why didn't that 'deterrent' ever prevent people arriving in the back of lorries while we were in the EU? Why have they switched from lorry to boat?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-67528110

"The number of attempts to stowaway at Channel ports have declined as hauliers and authorities take measures.

Figures obtained by the BBC show stowaway cases plummeted from about 83,000 in 2015 to 18,000 in 2021.

There has been a huge increase in attempts by migrants to cross the Channel by small boats in recent years after millions was spent improving security for lorries around the ports."

But Brexit.

You're just coming across as deranged in your determination to blame Brexit.

Brexit IS directly responsible for the increase in boats. Due to the removal of checks the other side of the channel and refusal to work with France. They offered to still work together on it but the conservative government refused this offer. People are also still arriving in lorries.
The real issue is that against international treaties, there is no way to apply for asylum here until you get here and there are no safe legal ways to arrive without permission. The only winners here are the people smugglers and the contractors paid by the government.
It's performative cruelty that prevents people from contributing to our country at a time when we desperately need more workers in skilled and unskilled roles (over a million).

Calling me deranged isn't a great argument is it? & totally unprovoked.

You just don't like it that Brexit hasn't led to a drop in migration but in numbers coming here, both legally and irregular tripling, 764k in 2022 via visas and 100k by boat.

You re quoting attempts at crossing by lorry, 83k, there are 100s of '000s of attempts to cross by boat...

We have broken relations with mainland Europe and that has an impact, the EU see x channel migration as an English problem, not a French or EU one.

We're paying the French £500 million to stop the boats.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64916446.amp

But all they appear to have done is laugh as migrants drown.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63728830

"In one exchange, an operator appears to mock the caller after the line is cut, saying, "Oh well, you can't hear me, you won't be saved. 'My feet are in the water' - I didn't ask you to leave." "

Do you consider that to be 'performative cruelty'?

It doesn't matter how much you want it to be due to Brexit, the migrants have switched to boats because lorries are no longer the easy option that they were.

Illegal migrant numbers have actually reduced since Brexit.

83k by lorry in 2015, before the Brexit vote, vs 48k in 2023 (18k by lorry + 30k by boat).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53699511

Please explain that reduction in terms of the 'loss of deterrent due to Brexit'.

You're attempting to argue using your prejudiced Brexit conceits and feelz, with a total disregard for the facts.

Just a few weeks ago when there was talk of NF one day being Tory leader I remember thinking how stupid to even think that, the guy's not even an MP.

It now seems very likely that he will become a Reform MP for Clacton, then if the Tories do spectacularly badly at the general election, there could be a clamour for him to be re-admitted to the party, as like it or not he is a vote-winner.

Then the members, who gave us Truss, will vote for him as leader!

The 83k was attempted crossings, not the number who crossed in lorries.

Unlike boats, crossings by lorry, if successful, don't have any numbers.

We are going around in circles, but pre brexit = very few boat crossings, post brexit 10s of '000s, there were no real security changes at Calais to account for this

That 500m is over several years and apparently, we haven't yet sent them any extra...... the new migrant detention centre wont be built for many years either, if at all.

The only way to limit crossings is by international co-op and returns agreements, stupid, costly Rwanda schemes will not help, that has so far cost almost 500m without a single migrant returned.

Farages idea is to tow back boats into French waters..... that'll end well.

Do you think Farage will win in Clacton?

I think Reform will do very well and get a lot of MPs, Farage will then look to replace the Tories with Reform, rather than become a Tory.

I do think Truss will win and she may well become their leader again.

Farage could win in Clayton - it's the only place that ever elected a UKIP MP. I think he wants to cause trouble in the Tory party as @Westfacing says. He's already started by joining the people criticizing Sunak for leaving the D-day events early to film an ITV interview that won't even be broadcast till next week. Sunak has now said leaving was a mistake.

Farage took his own trip to a French beach yesterday. Not invited to official events he was on a Normandy beach with the re-enactors. Tweeting and giving media shots.

I have just been handed Reform campaign by a Ukrainian refugee: the irony

If he does win, do you suppose he'll stand down again like he did after the referendum? 😉

In a way, I hope he does win for two reasons. As someone said above, his bullshit will be called out in Parliament, and secondly it will take votes away from Conservatives.

Having just looked at the reform website, there is very little about their actual policies, just sound bites and a few targets.

People can be manipulated into voting against their own best interests. Eg Brexit, low income people voting Tory.

Did the Ukrainian come over on a dingy and throw away his passport?