Brexit mega thread : part 9 : Winter is Coming

[Chevyimpala67]

Part 10 of our long running thread.

Not sure what to say, really, other than it is worse than I feared.

Strap in, folks. It's gonna be a rough ride...

Slimy bastards. The phrase "Tory Brexit" is probably Labours single biggest rally cry at the moment.

euobserver.com/opinion/156250

No Tories are now defending Brexit — and Truss is noticing

This is all making more sense now… it’s not Truss’s thinking or policies she doesn’t do either it’s the IEA’s. What is somewhat surprising is how open the IEA is being about admitting their influence. Not a great look atm given how badly markets reacted and govt spend had to go up.

twitter.com/ImIncorrigible/status/1574293351335075840

Good to know that we’re world beating at long last!

German Christmas Markets in Leeds will be cancelled forever due to visa requirements and Brexit red tape

www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/letters/the-cancellation-of-the-german-christmas-market-in-leeds-was-due-to-brexit-yorkshire-post-letters-3873272

I’d quite like to go on the Rejoin march, because I think (of course) that we shouldn’t have left the EU. However I also think that it’s too soon and too politically fraught to rejoin - if the EU would even consider it.
I may well go despite this to make the point that a better working relationship with the EU is important and Labour needs to soften its stance. (I think it will over time. I have a better understanding now of how Starmer operates.)

Sotd dior addict

I was going to go on the original rejoin march, but I can't make the new date unfortunately.

I know that rejoining is going to take a long time, but a big show of support will help both domestically and internationally.

Ooh, almost tempted to get one of these...

The wins keep coming.

“UK is only G7 economy not to have re-attained its pre-pandemic level by Q2 2022”

Ben Nabarro “Total Uk trade 25 to 30% below its pre Brexit trend”. Especially big loss of high value professional service exports to EU.

This is a big drag on the economy.

twitter.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1579764478937559041?t=yYI08gZ64yWs-MjIsrD1wA&s=19

Absolutely the IEA’s fingerprints are all over this. And Minford who seems to have far too much influence over Truss than he should given the lunacy of his ideas. Anyone who wants to read a good take down of Minford’s Brexit strategy should Google for the LSE piece on it.

Not saying it’s possible at this point, but we could increase GDP 4-5% just from EU membership, that’s what we’ve lost.

{Not saying it’s possible at this point, but we could increase GDP 4-5% just from EU membership, that’s what we’ve lost.}
Except that now comes into the 'opportunity costs' area so the UK will have to work much harder to get back to where it was. Besides at the moment there is no sign of a real PLAN but a constant stream of hopes and wishes, even less likely to materialise than Father Christmas. The Tories are still finding ways to make the mess the UK is in worse. Looking at worldwide news shows that there is a lot of turmoil going on so the fancy 'graphs' that might have had some credence say 7 years ago while the world was relatively calm simply don't match the global scene now.

The U.K. would have to work very hard to get back there. But not as hard as it would to try and make up that trade from rotw.

The fact is Brexit has lost us ~5% of GDP.

In the long term both parties will have to consider how to frame the rejoin narrative. They’re not even thinking about it now, but it will come simply from economic necessity.

Alternatively

eastangliabylines.co.uk/shock-as-britain-finds-eu-trade-suffers-because-we-choose-not-to-offer-what-it-wants/

(Brexiteers can ask a friend to read it to them).

Thanks SerendipityJane. That is a lovely article that (sort of) explains how and why in general, Brexit has hardly happened yet, or rather the deep seated problems have hardly started. I think Westminterenders flagged these sort of aspects around 4 years or more ago where equivalence and legal status of so many things (or lack of) will do some serious bum biting. And yet there are still some Brexiteers that go on about not having 'triggered Article 16' yet and worse that the UK is not 'Going WTO' which as that article explains would actually make matters considerably worse, as if now isn't bad enough. From (currently sunny) France it is difficult to talk with people about Brexit because in many ways it is done. only the issues of trying to get things to or from England get any mention at all so it is specific items rather than goods in general that might be missed. If anyone suffers from insomnia I can recommend trying to get your head around WTO trade rules as the sheer complexity is frightening. NO I don't understand much myself but the complexity to 'trade' in say 'Beef' has so many sub categories and with the intervention of all other countries that trade in beef having a say in whatever deal you may be trying to set up THEN factor in the same sort of process is applauded to everything you trade with just makes your head spin.

Am I reading this chart right? We are now to the right of Bolsonaro? 😱

Just had to share this...

🤣🤣🤣

Another armafuckinggeddon.

Last week I thought the Tories would get away with a leadership change. Now I think they will have to go.

I suppose a positive is that the UK isn't on Putin's bomb list. However having just written this, if he is going into 'revenge mode' he may twig that he is having difficulties with progress that it is 'errant' oligarchs that have stashed Russian funds in London banks and properties, then London could just be 'collateral damage.

@SerendipityJane that was a good ie clear, albeit depressing, explanation of the current trade situation.

Whilst another clear, albeit depressing, explanation of the current political situation comes from Chris Grey.

It seems that we’ve come to this Ironically, as well as being deeply depressing, the most hopeful thing about this government is how utterly hopeless at governing it is proving itself to be

World beating indeed.

chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/

With some added commentary from twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1576960371360813056

Another good one from the Papua New Guinea Courier...

Meanwhile, Braverman has single handedly borked the India trade deal.

www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/india-trade-deal-on-the-verge-of-collapse-following-braverman-comments-336790/

@SerendipityJane Suella de Vil, Suella de Vil, if Liz doesn't scare you, she certainly will...

I had to look twice ! a thread on Brexit , are we with all that's going on in the world still talking about the result of a referendum that happened 6 years ago, a referendum that was held democratically, we have Covid, The war in the Ukraine, a mad man that could hit the Nuclear bomb button at any time, an energy crisis that is effecting the whole of Europe , monkey pox, and yet still we have a seemingly deluded section of society that just cannot let it be, and by jove if anything goes wrong its all the fault of Brexit, the fuel shortage in France at the moment its Brexit, the Nord stream gas pipeline getting blown up Brexit, the Crimea bridge getting bombed Brexit, the ozone layer Brexit, the economy crashing not just here but in China and many other Countries as well Brexit.
OK blame it all on the Tories because when we had the chance to get rid of them at the 2019 General election they got elected again and crushed the Labour party convincingly how did that happen ?, OH yes we live in a democracy and the people of this country voted for them.So maybe its not so much Brexit that rankles you its the people of this country who just so happen to have a different opinion and they seem to be in the majority.
And yes you will say they are all wrong and you are all right.
And then you can start on another thread and another thread and another thread.