Realistically, how close are we to a deal?

[Woahisme]

I have read multiple articles on this, some more up to date than others, saying we could get a deal. Now it looks as though we might not. How likely is it that we will?

At the moment I would say - finger in the air - 40% chance of a deal. If Johnson tables the finance bill next week with clauses that break international law, and brings back the IMB bill doing the same, that drops drastically to about 10% I reckon. Just my opinion though. I think we're nearly boiled frogs.

I dont know much about the IMB bill. Can it be put into law?

Yes, of course, if it gets voted through it will be domestic law. If it still contains the provisions that break international law that will put the Brexit talks into crisis though, and the European Parliament won't approve a Brexit deal.

I'm crossing my fingers for a deal soon 🤞 boris needs to stop arsing around

A deal will happen
because the UK will buckle
but it will be shit and too late

When do you think it will be Listening?

Woah
about when the lorries stop
it cannot go well from here
sadly

Agree the most likely scenario is a shit late deal.

@ListeningQuietly - how likely do you think is serious disruption in early January? As far I can tell none of our digital systems are ready and lots of importing/exporting businesses are unprepared, but we are going to relax import requirements and hope for the best

Irene
I've posted multiple, multiple times about how the import and export of of goods works

the UK can relax import requirements all it likes
but the lorries have to get back to Spain / France / Italy to refill
technical term is a backload

If the lorry goes back empty
then the import load has to pay both trips = more expensive goods

If the lorry goes back laden it has to wait to clear French customs
up to 4 days
which costs money

add in clearance fees
--if the UK does not do them then NO UK goods can be exported to the EU

ALSO
if the UK is on WTO terms
if it drops import rules from one country
it has to drop them from ALL COUNTRIES
which ain't gonna happen

Thanks @ListeningQuietly - I knew you were knowledgeable about this area but haven't been reading many Brexit posts recently, so apologies for making you repeat yourself.

Your post is as I had feared.

The Guardian says that France is threatening to veto a deal.
But it could be that this is being said for the French public's consumption.

Macron has been playing this game for ages. Suspect that, as you say, much of it is for domestic consumption.

Irene
The issues bear repeating because it is shocking how few people who should know
do not
and even more shocking how the leaders are hiding from the masses
what has always been the truth

Don't think they have the slightest inclination or urgency or want to get a deal. It's all for the cameras, making out they are even trying, and of course they will blame the EU when in the end there is no deal forthcoming. I so hope that I am wrong and that a deal is reached at the 11th hour. I really believe that the EU are willing to compromise and really want to get a deal, because they know what the fallout will be if we No Deal.

I’d say the sun is closer to us than the possibility of a deal in the next 3 weeks.

I really believe that the EU are willing to compromise and really want to get a deal, because they know what the fallout will be if we No Deal.

Why should the EU compromise?

It is the UK that is breaking International Law

I totally agree ListeningQuietly well the UK won't that's for sure.

I'm afraid I am in total agreement with you Feminist10101

If the sticking points are fishing and state aid subsidies and we leave with No Deal if we can't compromise on those - then does that mean trading terms have been agreed on other things if we & EU do compromise?

I mean have our negotiating teams come up with a deal - if we can agree on fishing etc we get this deal, if not we go to WTO rules?

@BowlerHatPowerHat

I mean have our negotiating teams come up with a deal - if we can agree on fishing etc we get this deal, if not we go to WTO rules?

That's my understanding. As I see it there are 600 pages odd of agreed text - but just three issues to decide on.

My guess is that the biggest sticking-point is the level playing field? Isn't a lot of the point of Brexit to screw employees, and so on?

To remove environmental protections, too.

Most of the big retailers wrote to suppliers this week to say that if their UK packs aren't EU compliant (ie have a registered office in the EU not UK) they may not be able to order them.

The big retailers usually operate one supply chain across UK and Republic of Ireland. It's as though they've just realised they can't separate stock.

So all this brinksmanship could land us so unprepared that Boots can't buy UK stock.

Or else they'll just stop shipping to Ireland?!

But it could be that this is being said for the French public's consumption.

I honestly don't believe that the French public give the slightest hoot, with the exception of fishing communities on the north coast. Literally no one here talks about Brexit except the Brits who are having to do paperwork for residency and swap their driving licences.

Agree with Mistigri
I am in regular email correspondence with LeClerc who used to post and lives in northern France.
Brexit is not an issue there.
He did his residency and will then carry on regardless
because France is still in the Single Market.

Thinkaboutit
UK Businesses have been royally screwed over
damned if they do prepare
damned if they do not
fucked either way