Realistically, how close are we to a deal?

[Woahisme]

I have read multiple articles on this, some more up to date than others, saying we could get a deal. Now it looks as though we might not. How likely is it that we will?

So why is it okay for Switzerland to maintain their sovereignty and not be perceived as arseholes but not for us?

Switzerland allow Freedom of Movement and are in Schengen, for one. They know that they rely on the labour which FoM brings.

Regarding state aid, I was once told that the Dutch horticulture industry was subsidised by the Dutch government (for example, by funding the heating of greenhouses). I don’t know if this is true, but it didn’t surprise me.

It does me.
I do not believe it unless you provide evidence.

To be fair I think it's more likely a deal will be reached on level playing field than fish. Fish is economically pretty insignificant compared to other things but politically its weighty so the Prime Minister is less likely to give ground because it's be less easy for the tory backbenchers to swallow.

The big issue on LPF, as Boris said in PMQs today, is the question of continued alignment with EU standards.

Must never forget either that any deal they can reach will be absolutely shit, removing only the most limited of barriers to trade and will be substantially worse than what we currently have.

@justanotherneighinparadise

So why is it okay for Switzerland to maintain their sovereignty and not be perceived as arseholes but not for us?

Well they did vote to dump the freedom of movement the single market requires, and end up having to get a second referendum to restore it before they were able to participate.

And the UK is entirely free to maintain it's sovereignty any way it likes. As long as it accepts that means it's unlikely to get many (if any deals). Even the much trumpeted Japan places restrictions on what the UK can and can't do.

The UK has always been an attractive place to live and work, due to the generous welfare state and child credit etc, good schools and also free healthcare that does not exist in many parts of the EU. The freedom of movement became one of the central reasons for the UK voting to leave. The same sentiment can be found in Switzerland (also a small wealthy country)

Listening quietly, I admitted that I didn’t know if it was true. It was merely a remark made several years ago, by a tutor at an agricultural college.

I’m still interested in what a level playing field would mean in practice. More innovation (e.g. high tech, environmentally-sustainable greenhouses, or more cost-cutting (e.g. harsher working conditions or less nutritious agricultural produce)?

Its the level playing field that matters to the billionaire backers. Without it we lose our consumer and employment rights and become the sweatshop of Northern Europe. Which is what JRM, Tice, Raab and the rest of the bastards want.

The level playing field matters more than you think, especially to farmers.

Yep I am quite sure that they want us to become the sweat shop of N Europe. However, one thing the Asian sweat shops have which we don't are large, young populations. ( I am not saying that sweatshops are good, just stating the demographics.)

How would they achieve that with an aging population?

Switzerland accepts freedom of movement. However, becoming a naturalised Swiss citizen can be an extremely long process.

@Peregrina

Yep I am quite sure that they want us to become the sweat shop of N Europe. However, one thing the Asian sweat shops have which we don't are large, young populations. ( I am not saying that sweatshops are good, just stating the demographics.)

How would they achieve that with an aging population?

It's my understanding the Covid vaccine contains a secret formula that means old people can work an extra 20 years ? That's why they started with the old.

Margaret Keenan is already down for 3 shifts a day at Primark in the New Year.

Don't think they've though that one through Peregrina, just like they didn't think through who would pick fruit & veg when all the Eastern Europeans decided to give the UK swerve. They are not strategic thinkers, they are extreme right wingers joined by a bunch of overpromoted sycophants.

Switzerland accepts freedom of movement. However, becoming a naturalised Swiss citizen can be an extremely long process

That depends on how wealthy you are.

@houseinthesnow

Switzerland accepts freedom of movement. However, becoming a naturalised Swiss citizen can be an extremely long process

That depends on how wealthy you are.

So like the UK then.

Not for much longer.

Listening to Johnson's bluster in HoC today, I'm going with 5% chance of a true deal before 2021.

Re Switzerland "free movement of people": to get housing there you need to be relatively rich, typically pay 6 months rent up front, really high costs of living, barriers to entry even in trade jobs (e.g of a regulatory nature).
So even if they have freedom of movement in theory, it is not like here where people can just come over and get a bedsit somewhere and start working the next day. At least not in the trade sectors, not sure what the care sectors are like. In practice, it means people tend to find jobs before they move to Switzerland unless they have a relative they can stay with. Many workers commute across the border from France and Germany to get paid the higher prices but they go back overnight/pay taxes in their countries/often do need special permits from the local Swiss authorities.

I imagine that one difference with Switzerland is that they haven't been playing the hokey cokey like the UK has: in out shake it all about.

@peregrina of course Switzerland was never in the EU but they have been forever negotiating different deals with the EU when they come up for renewal. That is the price they pay for their sovereignty/independence etc./protecting their food supplies/farmers/customs etc
Remember Switzerland has absolute democracy so constant referenda is the norm there. We will have to end up like this - constant renegotiations but without asking the people again each time: and that is going to be interesting. It works in Switzerland because they run referenda there all the time anyway. But constant renegotiations here in the UK is going to be more interesting because a party freshly coming to power might try and use it to win, much like DC did and look where that has led us.

There is no reason why we couldn't have a democracy which has regular referenda, but those countries which do use them have formulated rules for them. As far as I remember each and every referendum we have held has had different rules applied.

DC wrecked his political career but financially I don't expect to see him using a food bank any time soon.

I also understand that the EU doesn't want another Switzerland - it's quite time consuming to have to keep negotiating deals all the time.

@justanotherneighinparadise

So why is it okay for Switzerland to maintain their sovereignty and not be perceived as arseholes but not for us?

Are you being serious? Switzerland is in EFTA, signed up to the SM....

Unfortunately, the Tories refused point blank to join EFTA, so yes we are arseholes.

1960 The European Free Trade Association (EFTA) is founded by Austria, Denmark, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, to promote closer economic cooperation and free trade in Europe

How times have changed :(

So when will we know if Bozo has secured the "great deal" or we are going to prosper mightily without one?

Number 10 reporting that tonight has gone badly. Definitive decision to be made by Sunday.

There is no reason why we couldn't have a democracy which has regular referenda

I used to think that. Then I realised we’d end up with the death penalty, the repeal of Health and Safety legislation and Jeremy Clarkson as Prime Minister.