Realistically, how close are we to a deal?

[Woahisme]

I have read multiple articles on this, some more up to date than others, saying we could get a deal. Now it looks as though we might not. How likely is it that we will?

Oh I know @ListeningQuietly the hours of time wasted spent planning in uncertainty is mind blowing.

Just what was needed after a year of rephrasing weekly due to Covid.

And DH said the other day, 'WTO rules aren't actually too bad, it's only about 0.5% EBITDA in costs. We're lucky." How we got from £350m a week bonus to the NHS and a bonfire of regulation to set us free and save wasted cost to being sanguine about a permanent 0.5% hit is beyond me.

Michel Barnier
@MichelBarnier
·
1h
After one week of intense negotiations in London, together with
@DavidGHFrost
, we agreed today that the conditions for an agreement are not met, due to significant divergences on level playing field, governance and fisheries.

So the odds are not likely then? I don't think there will be agreement on the fisheries.

It's not looking good for an agreement it couldn't happen at a worse time.

At this point in time Barnier and Frost have paused talks because they are far apart on level playing field, governance and fish ING in UK waters. They are going to brief VDL and BJ. Personally I don't think there will be a trade deal and we will end up trading on WTO rules. Macron has said he will veto a deal if one is struck. I think I read we have struck deal with Switzerland today.

You’re deluded if you think there will be a deal.
Only once we’ve left the EU on wto terms will we finally have a level playing field

Yes, a deal with Switzerland which allows certain professions visa free access for 3 months. Compare that with an entitlement to freedom of movement with no visa. Unless I have totally misunderstood, that does not sound like a brilliant deal to me.

@MH1111

You’re deluded if you think there will be a deal. Only once we’ve left the EU on wto terms will we finally have a level playing field

Can you elaborate on this?

On WTO rules, we will be level with the other countries who trade only on those terms
none

we will be below all the countries that have working trade deals
all others

To be honest most of it is actually agreed, it’s just the key areas discussed left, so even with no deal, the reality is we actually have ninety five percent deal in place.

It’s going to be about tariffs now, but all the customs requirements are now known and companies set up, and the government has said they will wave through if it’s not hazardous substances rather than spend inordinate time checking everything, as otherwise th queues will be horrendous.

So the reality is no deal isn’t actually a big deal any more and not what the media is making out, it’s not like last time. Even the regulations for substances is agreed and the regulations published and agreed by all

What we will likely face is some delays. But not anything to cause big concern, and extra costs due to tariffs. But this works both ways.

The eu actually has as much as us to loose, so i imagine this nonsense will go onto the last moment, before one of them blinks, but it’s not catastrophic for anyone if no deal. Probably more catastrophic for the eu due to access to fishing.

@Parmesanfrenzy

Michel Barnier *@MichelBarnier* · 1h After one week of intense negotiations in London, together with *@DavidGHFrost* , we agreed today that the conditions for an agreement are not met, due to significant divergences on level playing field, governance and fisheries.

Is that it then? Or more to come

@ListeningQuietly

On WTO rules, we will be level with the other countries who trade only on those terms none

we will be below all the countries that have working trade deals
all others

Aye but that will be shite in comparison to what we currently have. Just in terms of trade with the EU we already have a level playing at present. We have a free trade agreement.

Leaving with no deal means we have a level playing field with all countries that don't have a free trade agreement with the EU. Which is definitely going to be shite.

Sorry, I just dont understand MH1111's point at all. It doesn't make sense.

As part of an LA, I'm aware of emergency planning ...or lack of it around food shortages in January. Even the DfE asked what the plans are for food shortages in terms of school meals....like everyone else, no plans because no one knows what to plan for.

It’s going to be about tariffs now, but all the customs requirements are now known and companies set up, and the government has said they will wave through if it’s not hazardous substances rather than spend inordinate time checking everything, as otherwise th queues will be horrendous.

Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me (smugglers, contraband etc).

If the deal is 95% done (granted I read that this is the last weekend for a deal as both parties need time to sign things off), and everything will be fine, why are they bothering wasting time re fisheries and a level playing field ? Do they need to satisfy the remaining 5% to come away with a deal? Or can they just say 95% is fine by both parties, let's just part on that??

It's so confusing.

Meanwhile the U.K. govt is leaning on Ghana to agree a deal that means Ghana would have to breach its own treaty obligations to ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) or face 40k plus job losses in its produce sector which is mostly geared towards exports to the U.K.
International arseholery of a whole new level.

Bluntness
So the reality is no deal isn’t actually a big deal any more and not what the media is making out,
Sadly that is utterly and completely not the case.
WTO rules will be shit for the UK
because the WTO rules are designed to be a backstop, not a system

Yeah I misphrased that, it should have been it will not be as big a deal as we would have had when we originally envisaged no deal.

Yes we will have increased tariffs and increased cost of living, I totally agree, but we will not be sitting starving and Unmedicated.

From what I've read and heard WTO rules will be shit for the UK.

Can anyone explain exactly why this is so please? And why is the government so blasé about No Deal if WTO rules will be so bad?

"Terms on access to UK waters all but finalised, but Franco-German demand over EU laws remains an obstacle."

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/06/major-breakthrough-on-fishing-rights-brings-brexit-deal-closer

The key issues are level playing field/state aid and governance/ dispute mechanism, tariffs are the consequence.

It’s WTO vs FTA.

If FTA, then that deal could include an agreement to keep tariff-free trade and same/adjusted quotas (though customs procedures and would still apply), as well as agreements on airspace, security, customs co-operation, environment, LPF/competition-laws/regulations, haulage, agri-trade, fishing rights, mutual recognition, public procurement, etc.

Would also need to include a joint committee with a disputes mechanism where they could e.g. easily impose tariffs on certain goods if UK breaks any terms of the deal.

Otherwise No Deal/WTO - but the EU would still attempt to continue negotiations with the hope of reaching a deal - which of course would then become a whole different ball-game once tariffs have been applied and other features/benefits have been lost.....

Fisheries appears to have moved forward as was always likely as it was only really leverage and symbol.

All the fisheries talk this afternoon doesn’t mean we’re nearer a deal. It’s just a sideshow token really.

I can confirm that almost no one in France is interested now, beyond those in coastal fishing communities.

Macron does actually have some quite set ideas about a range of topics, incl the EU. His views transcend the level of "what will win me votes at the next elections?"

If he was only interested in his domestic electorate, he definitely wouldn't have shoved through some of his recent reforms.

The info today on fisheries is not as sanguine as it was yesterday.

Some reports saying they’re no nearer a deal on that either.