Realistically, how close are we to a deal?

[Woahisme]

I have read multiple articles on this, some more up to date than others, saying we could get a deal. Now it looks as though we might not. How likely is it that we will?

I think it would be far to say that the last GE was effectively another Referendum - but Johnson went to the country on an 'Oven Ready Deal'. A year later, we are still waiting.

You probably didn't vote for him anyway, so what's your problem? I did vote for him and am not that hung up on it, in spite of you wanting to believe that I should be.

I did vote for him

What's the weather like in Uxbridge at the moment ?

He won a thumping majority, people all over the place voted for him. Why Uxbridge? Must be one of your "in" jokes?

@mellongoose - I'm curious as to what might happen next re Brexit. I've hardly seen an Tory hating or Leave bashing on this thread.

As a separate point, why should something that effects everybody, whether they want it or not, be exempt from any form of questioning or criticism? Sounds almost like you bought all the Tory/Leave propaganda and now don't want anyone to question its merit. Are we living in 1984?

@Applesonthelawn

He won a thumping majority, people all over the place voted for him. Why Uxbridge? Must be one of your "in" jokes?

People "all over the place" need to learn how the electoral system in their own country works.

Maybe.

That said, I'd be more than happy to lose our useless so called "head of state" and have a chance to vote for the real head of state directly.

Basically chances of a deal are extremely thin. Divergence is massive on the big issues that remain unresolved.Boris meets von der Leyen tonight for dinner but very few people expect it to bring the necessary movement from the UK to secure a deal.

Maybe.

Maybe have a think about why some people need to resort to "in" jokes.

Have Boris and Ursula reached an agreement on the Irish border issue? If so, are fishing rights the only remaining sticking point?

I admit that I’m finding it all difficult to follow. I don’t know what’s genuine and what’s a bluff, double-bluff, counter-bluff etc.

The only thing that doesn’t surprise me is that negotiations are still going on at the last minute. British (male) MPs like the adrenaline of all-night debates, don’t they? I believe that several female MPs successfully campaigned for legislation to make Parliament more family-friendly, but this was later overturned. Sorry, going off-topic now.

There are two sticking points left. Fishing and level playing field.

One is easier than other, eventually an agreement will be made on the fish.

The level playing field is the real test.

Yet the funny thing with the level playing field is that Tory Governments have in the past shown little appetite for giving state aid.

2 issues I suppose - state aid to go to their friends and relatives; and employment, environmental and human rights to be thrown in the bin.

@Soupsetbythis

2 issues I suppose - state aid to go to their friends and relatives; and employment, environmental and human rights to be thrown in the bin.

Yes - they want to be able to dole out public money to tech/data companies, ie their friends.

@Peregrina

Yet the funny thing with the level playing field is that Tory Governments have in the past shown little appetite for giving state aid.

Spectacularly missing the point here.

What has happened to that judicial review case about awarding PPE contracts to friends? Still waiting for the judgement?

Surely a level playing field is in the best interests of most Brits? We want to keep our health, safety, employment, consumer and environmental protections, don’t we? What is Boris actually asking for?

I struggle to care about the fishing rights, though. This issue sounds more symbolic than practical. If some British fishermen have been selling their allocated quota to foreign trawlers, I don’t see how this is undermining British sovereignty.

Yes, we do want to keep those protections. But it's not about the interests of most Brits. It's about how a small minority can make most money.

soup I am not sure what thats got to do with the thread, maybe posted in the wrong place.

Cattenberg The level playing field is to do with state aid, the UK wants to help certain industries flourish especially after covid, and the EU not unreasonably do not want British companies to have an advantage. Thats the crux of it. The UK actually has been protections than many EU countries so that is not really an issue. The EU used the UK legislation around safety and employment laws to design the original footprint for the protections, so not a sticking point really, although some brexiteers would argue they should be able to do anything like as it is now an independent country, in reality I don't think it would cause too big a problem, but being able to support lets say farming is key to the future plans for the government.

Independent countries tend to set their own fishing quotas, and regulate their own waters naturally, so fishing is slightly more symbolic than it seems, and has become quite a cornerstone for representing the country as completely independent again. Not that I care about fish, but if I was jobless in Margate without any prospects of finding work, I may feel very differently.

Restricting State Aid was a key point that Mrs Thatcher pushed through the EEC

so much has changed

Yes it has listening It certainly has, beyond all recognition, which is why we find ourselves here now I guess.

@ListeningQuietly

Restricting State Aid was a key point that Mrs Thatcher pushed through the EEC

so much has changed

Probably best not to mention Concorde ...

There is no way the U.K. will trade with the EU on WTO terms in the long run. So at some point they will have to agree a trading deal. So it might as well be now even if it means compromises on both sides. The EU generally does not like compromises and does not compromise. However, U.K. becoming very poor etc does not help the EU at all. They do not need to make an example of the U.K. because other countries in the euro cannot really leave anyway (nor do they want to after this fiasco). So why risk everyone’s financial security etc. especially given the Covid situation. If I were the EU I would offer Bojo a short term deal he can’t refuse because it is that good. I would let that tie over until the next U.K. elections. The U.K. political situation is a problem which might be resolved in the future. Or does someone think the Euro will skyrocket if the U.K. leaves with no deal? I highly doubt it. It might not fall as badly as the pound but surely the aim is to cause the least damage at this point. I think Switzerland protects certain of its industries.

I think Switzerland protects certain of its industries.
That would be because Switzerland is not in the EU
and negotiates constantly for different deals

If I were the EU I would offer Bojo a short term deal he can’t refuse because it is that good.

I'd think of all the outcomes that is the least likely. The UK has had two extensions to A50 plus a years transition. It's not the EUs fault that we spent it all looking at our willies in the mirror.

No more short term deals. No extensions (by the force of law in the UK). Shit or get off the pot.

One thing that is absolutely a given here. The UKs post Brexit relationship with the EU will never, ever be as advantageous as being in the EU. That's an almost existential given.

I can't see what sort of Deal the EU could offer to people like the ERG because they don't want anything to do with the EU full stop.

@Applesonthelawn, it’s not really an in-joke. Look up Boris’s constituency.

Regarding state aid, I was once told that the Dutch horticulture industry was subsidised by the Dutch government (for example, by funding the heating of greenhouses). I don’t know if this is true, but it didn’t surprise me.

Would an end to all state subsidies result in a race to the bottom, rather than different countries specialising in different industries?