Realistically, how close are we to a deal?

[Woahisme]

I have read multiple articles on this, some more up to date than others, saying we could get a deal. Now it looks as though we might not. How likely is it that we will?

Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement didn't split N Ireland from the rest of the UK. IMO that was better than what Johnson is trying or not trying to achieve.

The EU are absolutely determined to make an example of the UK incase a good deal emboldens/angers other countries in the block.
No
The EU wants to uphold its own law
The UK wants to break EU law while still benefiting from its protections

OldeTrout
Your idea would work were it not that UK owners sold their quotas to foreign owners many years ago

Remember that the UK is quite happy to break International law.

The EU are absolutely determined to make an example of the UK in case a good deal emboldens/angers other countries in the bloc.

That was doubtless true some time ago.

Most states that were paying attention noticed a while back that the UK is entirely capable of making an example of itself without outside input.

Raab, Frost, Cleverly, Williamson, Truss, Patel, Hancock, Eustice, Jenrick, Shapps...
The incompetence and ignorance of current ministers is striking if you occasionally look beyond the standards they 'set' and spot that in other places, not so far from Westminster, there are actually politicians who can handle ideas, concepts and words and who are not all part of a chumocracy.

It's amazing anyone can think the IMB is just a detail. It's a clear illustration of how rogue Johnson's gvmt has gone.

Your idea would work were it not that UK owners sold their quotas to foreign owners many years ago

This^

I watched on Channel 4 news tonight that BoJo is to have one on one talks with Ursula Von Der Leyen(?) and they seemed to be hinting a deal was on the cards. I think they until wednesday to get a deal in place. To be honest, I would not send BoJo in to negotiate with anyone one on one. He will just make a hash of it.

I think we are making an example of ourselves with the third rate bollocks we put into bat. I despise the Tories but at least they used to have the odd grown up in Parliament. The grown ups got purged to make way for a soggy biscuit sesh. And, surprise, surprise, they are hopeless at actually doing their job.

It makes you wonder if anyone is truly happy with Brexit. Remainers won't be, and I can only imagine Leavers are not happy too at the mo.

To be honest, I would not send BoJo in to negotiate with anyone one on one. He will just make a hash of it.

He's not negotiating. The negotiating is done. It's a political question now, just like it was with the withdrawal agreement a year ago: will he sign on the dotted line, or not.

A year ago he threw the DUP under the bus and signed a deal that many of his backbenchers - who cheered him on at the time - now hate.

It comes down to whether Johnson is more afraid of the consequences of no deal, or of signing a deal. I don't mean the actual consequences, obviously - I'm talking about the political consequences to him and his party. He doesn't give a stuff about his country.

He's not negotiating. The negotiating is done. It's a political question now, just like it was with the withdrawal agreement a year ago: will he sign on the dotted line, or not.

I thought he was in further talks to carry on negotiating? I also read an article today on BBC website saying that the EU are will to further talks in 2021 even after Brexit. Boris is still banging on about sovereignty though and controlling the rights to our waters (not allowing France easy access to them).

I thought Bozo said he didn't want any further talks after this year. This is probably a good thing - they have farted around for four years, so what would another add.

Except we can remember the relationship between Switzerland and the EU - which is one constant round of talks.

I thought he was in further talks to carry on negotiating?

Negotiating a trade deal is an extremely detailed process and even if Johnson was interested in detail he doesn't have the right background.

When trade talks get stuck, it's not because they need to negotiate more details, it's because there is a fundamental incompatibility between the two sides' positions that their negotiators cant resolve.

Resolving this is a political job, that has to be done by the person who is ultimately responsible for setting the red lines within which negotiators work - ie the prime minister (on the U.K. side). He is the person who can say "I am prepared to move my red lines to get a deal".

@Mistigri

I thought he was in further talks to carry on negotiating?

Negotiating a trade deal is an extremely detailed process and even if Johnson was interested in detail he doesn't have the right background.

When trade talks get stuck, it's not because they need to negotiate more details, it's because there is a fundamental incompatibility between the two sides' positions that their negotiators cant resolve.

Resolving this is a political job, that has to be done by the person who is ultimately responsible for setting the red lines within which negotiators work - ie the prime minister (on the U.K. side). He is the person who can say "I am prepared to move my red lines to get a deal".

Ah I see, thanks for clarifying.

Still as Pergrina said, what's the point in more waffle after 1st Jan? We have already wasted 4 years. It's all a sodding mess. Reading another thread about Macrons stance re fishing rights etc. and it would be comical if it wasn't real life.

I can only imagine Leavers are not happy too at the mo.

The question of what actually would make leavers happy was never resolved.

The only thing I’ve figured out is that the thickos in this country don’t like being called thick.

I haven't rtft in full, although I have sensed the tone as being the usual for the Brexit boards. Lots of Leave bashing and Tory hating.

Once you get past all that, it is clear that most people are now united in wanting a sensible deal. Following yesterday's announcement regarding the Joint Committee, my feeling is that a deal will come soon.

My guess is that Fisheries will have a further 3 years to transition. This is acceptable to our fleet so long as there is investment in building up our fleet in the same time period.

On the level playing field but, I'm not as certain how it will be resolved but it if the EU cannot then they are showing themselves to be blind to democracy and that is not a good look for them either.

I agree with a PP that the semantics have probably been pretty much decided but the PM's visit will be to decide how they can announce a deal without either side losing face.

I hope it can be resolved this week.

Good luck with that.

Then I suggest that you read the full thread Mellongoose - the only mention of the Tories is in your post. As for Leave bashing, again the only reference is that Leavers don't appear to be happy. Why not? They have got what they said they wanted, which was to leave the EU.

One positive note is that the UK has now decided that it won't legislate to break international law - but that only puts us back to the status quo before.So more time wasted. Nor does it undo the lack of trust which that move engendered.

Then I suggest that you read the full thread Mellongoose - the only mention of the Tories is in your post. As for Leave bashing, again the only reference is that Leavers don't appear to be happy.

Some examples below of pointless Tory hating and leave bashing for you Peregrina, including from you yourself, and these are only from page 4. What sort of person do you have to be to contradict yourself so blatantly within a few posts?

I thought Bozo said he didn't want any further talks after this year. This is probably a good thing - they have farted around for four years, so what would another add.

I think we are making an example of ourselves with the third rate bollocks we put into bat. I despise the Tories but at least they used to have the odd grown up in Parliament. The grown ups got purged to make way for a soggy biscuit sesh. And, surprise, surprise, they are hopeless at actually doing their job.

Remember that the UK is quite happy to break International law.

The only thing I’ve figured out is that the thickos in this country don’t like being called thick.

Calling Bozo a disgrace is not Tory bashing. Think of the number of perfectly decent Tory MPs who were chased out of the party before the last election - a few names - Dominic Grieve, Rory Stewart, Justine Greening - with Nicholas Soames and Michael Heseltine denied the whip. Why moderate Tories are not up in arms about this is beyond me. I note that Johnson didn't take the whip from the rebels the other night.Why not? Because the ones chased out last year were Remainers and the ones who voted against him the other night were true Brexiters?

As for breaking International law. I am happy to stand by that as being a disgraceful action. Imagine the screaming if Labour had done that.

Being a remainder Tory doesn't make you moderate. Being a leave supporting Tory doesn't make you extreme. Its call disagreeing about our future relationship with the EU.

That plaster was ripped off last year. Most Tory MPs want a sensible deal. There are plenty still in the parliamentary party who voted remain but they get that the country voted several times to leave.

Negotiations and the tactics required are being deployed and, I think, they will be successful to a point. I expect some concessions will be made on both sides but nobody wants to walk away with no deal.

The IMB was a tool which has been successful in its mission. Hence the Joint Committee agreement yesterday.

The PM will be in trouble with the back benches if he gives too much ground but I hope everyone can be sensible and move forward positively and quickly!

The IMB was not a successful tool. It made us look like shifty idiots in advance of every other negotiation we enter into from this point. No one be will trust us because we said In Parliament that we were prepared to break international law.

And all we got out of it was egg on our face. No genuine concession from the EU - they don't need to - other than to stop laughing at us to our faces.

As for breaking International law. I am happy to stand by that as being a disgraceful action.
How do you know that wasn't a negotiating tactic? It has been withdrawn (unsurprisingly) to change the colour of the conversation. Unless you are on the inside, you know very little about how those negotiations are handled.

That plaster was ripped off last year. Most Tory MPs want a sensible deal. There are plenty still in the parliamentary party who voted remain but they get that the country voted several times to leave

There has been one referendum, GE's are not fought on a single issue plus johnson won based on a lie that he had a deal when he clearly did not.

Negotiations and the tactics required are being deployed and, I think, they will be successful to a point. I expect some concessions will be made on both sides but nobody wants to walk away with no deal

Do they? i wonder whether the latest talks are about reaching a face saving stance that both sides can say they did all they could but a deal wasn't possible.

The IMB was a tool which has been successful in its mission. Hence the Joint Committee agreement yesterday

Yes very successful, EU officials running the border in NI and it's totally separate to any FTA reached.

The IMB has been successful in starting the now almost inevitable reunification of Ireland and also the almost inevitable secession of Scotland from the UK.

Is screaming and screaming until I'm sick, negotiating or having a tantrum?

I think it would be far to say that the last GE was effectively another Referendum - but Johnson went to the country on an 'Oven Ready Deal'. A year later, we are still waiting.

The election before - May lost, and only carried on by cobbling together a deal with the DUP, who have now been thrown under the bus, now that they are no longer needed.