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Brexit

Westminstenders: Governing by U-Turn

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2020 01:45

Johnson's determination to get brexit done and to have 'a clean break from Europe' on terms which involve other countries happily returning fishing rights they bought from us (without recompense for the said previous purchase) in addition to the EU accepting terms they don't feel create a level playingfield and risk their economic future make any deal impossible. Our demands simply aren't achievable.

The alternative is adherence to the Withdrawal Agreement in which we are unable to bail out businesses via state aid and to have no deal which creates huge trade barriers and tarriffs overnight and massive customs red tape which we simply are not yet prepared for because the systems for running this are running behind schedule. This would lead to massive food shortages and Brexit lorry parks throughout the country for the forseeable future.

Johnson's latest bright idea is that he seems to think he can avoid chaos by a strategy which would cause even more chaos by deliberately reneging on the withdrawal agreement which is an international agreement just months after throwing a hissy fit for China doing exactly the same thing. This wouldn't just be hypocritical but would make a mockery of our credibility internationally and potentially endanger every other international agreement we've currently in place because well, why should anyone else stick to an agreement with the UK.

We could face years of legal wrangles with god knows which countries and businesses suing the British government.

But y'know Johnson thinks this is a sensible strategy and a cracking plan to force Brussels to blink first rather than actually take the subject seriously and do something in the country's interest rather than prevent Johnson from damaging his internal reputation with leave voters and because he thinks this is the correct hill to die on to prove he doesn't govern by u-turn. Johnson's ego seems more important to him than feeding the nation and having an international reputation.

Or he could do another u-turn.

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DGRossetti · 12/09/2020 17:14

@ListeningQuietly

Emily Look at the ward by ward map. Its astounding how low the cases are in many areas.

Take Wiltshire - 364 deaths, 1,500 cases in total to date
in a population of 720,000

Or Dorset (excluding BCP) 162 deaths, 707 cases
in a population of 367,000

Low population density, affluent areas have not been hit hard

Bradford, population of 540,000 has had 6899 cases and 513 deaths

The parallels with disease and poverty never go away.
SwedishEdith · 12/09/2020 17:34

I just spotted the 'Sue Ellen' comment and was thinking that she's probably really called Consuela as her name previous name was Fernandes. But, no, she's really Sue Ellen Grin. And she went on an Erasmus exchange to France Hmm.

Mistigri · 12/09/2020 17:36

Take Wiltshire - 364 deaths, 1,500 cases in total to date

If these numbers are correct then that's a CFR of over 20% - which makes me think the case count probably isn't complete (if you assume that the IFR is 1% then the implication is that fewer than 1 in 20 cases in Wiltshire have been diagnosed).

Also, 364 deaths in a population of 720k is equivalent to a death toll of about 35k nationally

In the case, "low" is entirely a function of Wiltshire's small population.

Mistigri · 12/09/2020 17:37

I accept that Wiltshire might be less affected than Bradford but those are still HIGH numbers (my mum lives in Wiltshire and she keeps telling me there is no covid there, but she is wrong).

DGRossetti · 12/09/2020 17:39

Just (re)watched Mary Beards biopic of one Julius Caesar.

We're fucked. Well fucked.

We missed steps 1-4, we're now at the point where Caesar appealed to the masses directly, bypassing all the mechanisms of control.

And EOTHO seems analogous to the time Caesar paid for all of Rome to have a meal (off 22,000 tables).

HoneysuckIejasmine · 12/09/2020 17:40

Yep. Rough figures - here is Glos there's been 2000 infections in a population of 500,000. About 500 deaths. So that's a 0.4% infection rate and about 0.1% death rate.

There are some real pockets of deprivation here and lots of infections after the Festival Hmm but overall the wealth of the area has won out.

Emilyontmoor · 12/09/2020 17:41

Listening I take your point but I do think the true picture may be different, we may never know because early cases never got diagnosed. It was definitely in the low population density areas where it first started to spread in Yorkshire. Yes in the end it has exploited deprivation in the ultimate spread but just lets not forget that middle class / tory complacency was what let it take hold in the first place. I know people (Mumsnetters at that) with children in private schools In London. who are still suffering long Covid, (and have tested positive for antibodies) because people who came back from skiing in Italy sent children into school with coughs saying “It’s fine, we weren’t in the lockdown areas” ...... The initial spread in London was certainly an affluent phenomenon, private schools, central London pubs and restaurants, until it reached the areas of greater ethnic diversity.

When my parents, very rural village, had the classic symptoms in early March and I said it was definitely it, everyone thought I was mad, because supposedly there were only 4 cases in the whole county, now it is clear their village had many cases as a result of a doctor who came back from Italy and drank in the pub. It is only because I made them kick up a fuss and got the village talking that the GP has had to face up to the true picture though.

Makes no difference in the long term, you don’t dent the perceptions, attitudes and motivations that make people vote Tory that easily, not even with a record number of deaths ... You don’t change them with facts or logic, as Dom knows very well, blaming others, for being poor/old/BME is a much more powerful motivator.... and very much in play by Tory MPs www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-sparks-race-row-22450214.amp

HoneysuckIejasmine · 12/09/2020 17:45

Of course as Misti says, the CFR is a rather alarming 25% which implies case rate isn't right.

Do we have any proper data about what the CFR actually is?

I listen to a rather right wing YouTube "podcast" and they were calling Boris "the Betrayer" for the latest restrictions and suggesting that infection rate and case rate are different - supposedly a "case" requires there to be hospital treatment. They were upset that the two numbers were being conflated and used to infringe civil liberties. Anyone know the truth of IR/CR?

ListeningQuietly · 12/09/2020 17:51

Emily / Honeysuckle
The really interesting area is Christchurch.
Demographically the oldest borough in the country
but very affluent
LOADS of nursing homes
almost no excess deaths on a year to date basis (regardless of COVID) I see the burial registers

As DGR rightly says, lots of rich people caught it, but far more of those who died were poor.

Which suits the Government just fine Angry

SwedishEdith · 12/09/2020 17:52

@ListeningQuietly

Emily Look at the ward by ward map. Its astounding how low the cases are in many areas.

Take Wiltshire - 364 deaths, 1,500 cases in total to date
in a population of 720,000

Or Dorset (excluding BCP) 162 deaths, 707 cases
in a population of 367,000

Low population density, affluent areas have not been hit hard

Bradford, population of 540,000 has had 6899 cases and 513 deaths

Have you got a link to this ward by ward map?
Emilyontmoor · 12/09/2020 17:52

I am also quite sure that not upsetting Tory voters by messing up half term skiiing, as well as Cheltenham was a factor in delaying lockdown.

ListeningQuietly · 12/09/2020 17:56

SwedishEdith
The really localised data is on here
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19interactivemap/2020-06-12
The Local Authority data is here
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

Emily
I genuinely think that the half term skiing was cockup not conspiracy.
The Austrians were shocked too - and it was THEIR ski resorts that were key.

Emilyontmoor · 12/09/2020 17:58

Listening In early March I was told that social services in Poole were having to watch horrified, unable to stop people being released into care homes and nursing homes in Poole and Bournemouth but mysteriously some Care home owners (In Christchurch) had more power to resist..

ListeningQuietly · 12/09/2020 17:58

Emily
Those that take Council funded and those that do not .....
Money again

Emilyontmoor · 12/09/2020 17:58

Sorry lost a bit of text “unable to stop people being released into care homes from the NHS untested

yoikes · 12/09/2020 18:00

The only rich tories "suffering" due to brexit are City centre landlords and private landlords who haven't been able to evict tenants since March.

HoneysuckIejasmine · 12/09/2020 18:01

Yes in my ward there are 30 deaths. Not heard anything locally though - I rather suspect it's mostly the two large care homes in the village. Sad

SwedishEdith · 12/09/2020 18:01

Ah, thanks @ListeningQuietly. Very interesting.

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yoikes · 12/09/2020 18:10

6 deaths in my ward. All in hospital and the nursing home.

3 deaths in the large town we are going to in October half term.

However, 3 primaries and the secondary school went back 3 weeks ago so....let's see.

Ds1s college has already had a (large) year group bubble sent home to isolate.

Emilyontmoor · 12/09/2020 18:14

Listening Ilkley has a very affluent elderly population, amongst the 10% most affluent wards in the country. It should have been a Christchurch....

BigChocFrenzy · 12/09/2020 18:23

@HoneysuckIejasmine

Of course as Misti says, the CFR is a rather alarming 25% which implies case rate isn't right.

Do we have any proper data about what the CFR actually is?

I listen to a rather right wing YouTube "podcast" and they were calling Boris "the Betrayer" for the latest restrictions and suggesting that infection rate and case rate are different - supposedly a "case" requires there to be hospital treatment. They were upset that the two numbers were being conflated and used to infringe civil liberties. Anyone know the truth of IR/CR?

... CFR = case fatality rate - but that is confirmed cases, according to WHO i.e. depends on how many tests & other diagnoses you do !

More relevant is IFR = Infection Fatality Ratio, the % deaths for all those infected,
regardless of whether they have symptomsor have ever been tested

However, that is not known directly so needs to be modelled, or estimated from a detailed study of say a very small town population
flu IFR = 0.044% which is much lower than the 0.1% often quoted - the latter is probably CFR

COVID IFR estimates vary from about 0.3 to 1.3

IFR would be different for a developing country, which has far fewer elderly and usually an average age in the 20s
and probably also different for countries of very different population density, since a different % of the populations would be infected

HoneysuckIejasmine · 12/09/2020 18:34

Thanks BCF

ListeningQuietly · 12/09/2020 18:38

Emily
Ilkley is not a place that rich people move to from rich places
(I know Keighley and Bingley better admittedly)
Christchurch is a real outlier

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