How will we measure Brexit’s success or failure?

[Bearbehind]

I’ve been pondering this for ages now

In any ‘normal’ project you’d have targets, objectives, deadlines, reviews etc but for Brexit beyond 2 deadlines of 31/1/20 and 31/12/20 there’s nothing

People talk about politicians being accountable now but what do we expect them to deliver and by when

Really interesting question! Bear

I'm sure people will be keen to do this and claim "success" or "failure", probably much more quickly than they really should but I don't actually think doing that will be very helpful.

My starting point would be, Brexit is a decision, things will change, some of those changes will be good, some of them will be bad (and I'm certain there will be both)

Good changes? I think evaluating those we might begin by working through the outcomes around "taking back control" of "law"; "trade"; "borders" and "money". So the end of open ended financial contributions = good change, reduction in the influence of EU law = good change, new immigration system developed and implemented = good change, etc

Bad changes? Well there are some obvious things like the EU maybe making new laws that no longer apply to the UK where we think "wouldn't it be great if we had that?" However, I suspect I disagree radically with lots of people on the Brexit boards about what sort of new laws I personally would view positively....and of course the follow up question to the sense of disappointment would be "we why shouldn't we, what's stopping us?" So it could be speed that's the only difference.

Thanks louise

I think a periodic update would be good listing all the changes that have been main only because we’ve left the EU

I suspect what will actually happen is lots of things, good and bad, will be attributed to Brexit when they had nothing at all to do with it

Absolutely sure you a right about that Bear whether the economic outlook is good or bad, job numbers, immigration numbers. People will want to refight 2016 over and over again.

The question is not "how will we" but "will we" and the answer, I fear, is "no".

It might be quite hard to determine what can actually be ascribed or not to Brexit, though.
OTOH, figures like the ones showing that Brexit has already cost almost as much as the UK's total contributions over the last 47 years are quite eloquent.
here
Although some might think it's a price worth paying for whatever it is that's coming next.

It might be quite hard to determine what can actually be ascribed or not to Brexit, though

It shouldn’t be though should it?

Conceptually we should be able to say we have trade deal x, y and z and have changed laws a, b and c and we couldn’t have done these whilst in the EU because ..........

Yes.
Whether they then represent success or failure might depend on your POV. Like the Dubs Amendment...

This is a great question...

I know what matters to me, but I guess I'm more interested in what matters to the people with any power (ie, not me). How will they judge success? And will they get it.

"The People" who voted for Brexit, might want

• Thriving fishing industry
• Few foreigners around (say, < 5% visible foreign origin people in whole popn)
• High employment
• Low income inequality
• High quality, very accessible health services
• Civil order (not unrest)
• Low house prices (or lower than now, anyway)
• Inexpensive forms of basic entertainment (eg., professional sport)
• Winning the World Cup (footie)
• Politics to be rarely discussed or on their radar
• Lots of people working in what they view as traditional industries

They won't care about
Arts, Science, banking services, miscarriage of justice, climate change, checks and balances on legal power of Parliament, UK constitution, technology, UK possibly breaking up, protection for minorities, anything theoretical or philosophical, gender / race / religious equality

Conceptually we should be able to say we have trade deal x, y and z and have changed laws a, b and c and we couldn’t have done these whilst in the EU because...

But isn’t this conceptually difficult because something as complicated as international trade law has been simplified so far it’s become a meaningless sound bite?

So ending up with virtually identical laws to the EU might be defined as a success or failure depending on your viewpoint but the reality might be different. Have we really gained much if we’re just making a whole new set of laws based on the rules of a different trading organisation?

I agree Bear that we will be able to say we have "x trade deal" or have changed law "y", etc, etc. The bunfight will be about whether people consider these to be good or bad changes, and I'd expect those arguments to be virtually as polarised as 2016 was.

Whether they then represent success or failure might depend on your POV

Agreed but I guess for me the success of Brexit depends on how much we change as a direct result of being outside the EU

Whether I think those changes are a good thing or not is irrelevant really - in my head it’s now just about what we do moving forwards that we couldn’t have done in the EU

Otherwise it’s not Brexit driven is it?

The above applies to louises post too

My opinion on whether or not we should have done it is something entirely different though! 😆

Feelz

Well, if your bellweather is just "change", I think you will be able to count Brexit a success.
Unless BJ is very, very cleverly hiding BRINO behind a devilish smokescreen (and Sajid Javid is a loose cannon soon to be shot down by a Cummings-activated drone).

auld it’s not just change per se, it’s specifically changes that could only have happened outside the EU

Otherwise why did we / are we bothering.

Will of the people innit.

(I'd still love to see that Russia report, but realise that Megxit is more pressing to many than possible interference in democratic procedures)

Even without Megxit you wouldn't be getting your eyes on that report Auld, not til it's forced out and even then they'll be taking a chunky marker to it.

Cummings surely must be up to his nasty neck in it..

Don’t start me on Megxit! I just heard on the news H&M are now suing the press because of the photos they took of her today - yet she was carrying Archie at a wonky angle because if he’d been in the sling straight his head would have blocked hers and ruined the photos!

Madness

Arse. Sorry.
I really, really didn't mean to do that.

Take it as a generic reference to the complete and utter shite that people get exercised about when really there is so much more important stuff to focus on.
Can we forget I said the Mword and not mention her again?

Ha!

Definitely auld 😂

I'd like to see improved regulations on things like animal welfare, emissions and climate change generally. I'd also like to see farming subsidies changed into focusing on sustainable production reducing imported feed and promoting the most efficient, environmentally friendly methods of production. I'd like to see locally produced food subsidised and the promotion of livestock breeds which produce less methane. Also the encouragement of changing the use of land to broad leaf forestry, bogs and wetland plus a hedgerow incentive.
I'd also like to see major research funding increased for the improvement of batteries for all forms of electric transport and methods of storing wind and solar power.
I feel Brexit is an ideal chance for the country to be a real front runner in so many environmental projects.

Interesting double - I tend to think environmental issues are going to be way down the list except for a few ‘flagship’ type gestures but we’ll see

Thing is, those are issues that you can address if your economy is chipper.
OTOH, maybe everyone can follow the Hull's example and just introduce universal income so the really serious problems can be dealt with.
(Probably unlikely under a Tory gvmt, esp one with JRM wielding odd influence and Cummings blathering on about the need for chaos)