How will we measure Brexit’s success or failure?

[Bearbehind]

I’ve been pondering this for ages now

In any ‘normal’ project you’d have targets, objectives, deadlines, reviews etc but for Brexit beyond 2 deadlines of 31/1/20 and 31/12/20 there’s nothing

People talk about politicians being accountable now but what do we expect them to deliver and by when

I guess all things being equal it's where things improve or decline

I feel Brexit is an ideal chance for the country to be a real front runner in so many environmental projects

Didn't Johnson call activists Crusties who live in hemp smelling bivouacs?
So, we leave the EU, who are announcing some very ambitious carbon targets, the UK sets sail with a POTUS who is a climate change denier and seek FTA deals with Australia, China and India.....

Tory manifesto was way behind the LDs and Lab on green issues.

As to new laws, so the Govt introducers a new law/change of rule and says we can can do this now... but dig a little deeper and find we could have whilst in the EU anyway.
Who do we believe?

Huge downside with brexit is loss of FOM, it cuts both ways, esp in regard to scientific co-op. I also do not see how we can get a new immigration policy in place for the healthcare and agricultural sectors, especially if EU workers stop applying....i mean why come to the UK with costly visas and healthcare premiums when you can go to many other countries in europe or across the globe?

There won't be an agricultural sector like there is now... there will be a 'rewilding' sector. Cheaper imported food will undercut prices of foods UK currently grows. Imagine if 35% of the agricultural land is no longer profitable (not even for sheep) so highland bogs get regen'd, forests planted, as long as they are public amenity access, some land freed up for other development & housing...

I keep wondering if Uk might super invest in the education sector, so like Cuba, UK becomes 'the place' for the world to send their kids to university to get medical degrees etc. Competition with Bulgaria.

I predict that the UK fishing community will be thrown directly under a bus, or steam roller, really, as barter for easy access to EU for another sector with better lobbyists. June Mummery is gonna go ape...

I think Bear and Louise that you are part of a group of brexiteers (I think you were pro brexit bear - many apologies if not) - who actually thought about it, or think about it......but you are outliers amongst brexiteers.
For the most part it will be judged a success by Brexiteers because Boris and maybe Nigel tell them it's a success.....and that it.
The fact that they loose their jobs because manufacturing is screwed - well that won't be linked will it? Or it will because the nasty EU won't let us have our cake and eat it......

And if they think the EU is nasty and unfair - wait until we start dealing with trump ........ though I suspect while he is fucking us over , the press will be telling us thy it is a sweet living and consensual relationship......

Sorry mrs, I’m most definitely not a Brexiter

I’m a ‘begrudgingly resigned to it’ Remainer

If we’ve got to go through this, I’d like to understand what for and what ‘a good job will look like’

The other problem is timeframe. Just how long should we wait before assessing it? After all, trade deals take time and even the most ardent Brexiteer (JRM) will concede it will take time before we see success.

Unless you include ripping up worker and refugee rights, in which case it's already a resounding success.

Sorry bear - a so was typing it I couldn't remember . I think you were hounded because you were a Tory.

I don't know I would describe myself as a begrudging remainer. More unhappily resigned....

It can't be a success by anyway I would measure it. We would have to see a wealthier and healthier country - not for the few, but the many. (That was an election slogan wasn't it). And Boris is not in it for everyone- not sure what is driving him other than power.

I’m now a very reluctant Tory too!

The alternative was unthinkable but I have very little faith in this government to do what’s best for the country either

I just think that not having any goals or targets let’s them off the hook

We can always compare ourselves to the countries still in the EU, especially those with economies of a similar size to ours i.e. France and Germany.

For example, if over the next few years, the UK storms ahead of France and Germany economically, becomes more influential than them on the world stage, comes above them in the world rankings for education, healthcare and life expectancy, becomes carbon neutral and still protects employment and consumer rights, then Brexit will have been a resounding success.

On the other hand, if the opposite happens, Brexit will have been a dismal failure.

I suspect that it won’t be that extreme either way, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

I’m no customs expert but is it not the case that we either agree to EU level playing field commitments to enable us to stay closely aligned to EU and become a ‘rule taker’, or we refuse to be ‘rule takers’ meaning an additional burden on UK business with tariffs, additional admin, products needing to be re-registered by EU partners (industry depending) etc etc pushing costs up. Theoretically, if we then also agree FTA with countries such as India, China and US and reduce tariffs we could potentially be undercutting U.K. business as they have less stringent environmental/workers rights laws etc which usually means goods are cheaper to produce (obviously as this is the reason for level playing field in the first place). Would we then see a ‘bonfire of rights’ to keep UK business competitive, as their costs would increase at the same time we potentially have access to cheaper imports?

Again I’m no expert but if the above is correct it would mean we have either BRINO but obviously we lose our veto, or we have possible damage to U.K. business.

Would be interested to hear from any customs experts (if any) on here for an explanation as to how divergence would be good for U.K. business. Javid said there would be winners and losers if we do diverge but the only winners I see are SE customs agents and insolvency practitioners.

I think it will be difficult to assess because we don't yet know when the end of Brexit will be. Does it mean the end of January ? the end of the transition period and any extension to that period ? When the last trade deal is finalised ?
Once we have decided when Brexit is finished, what tangibles can be measured to decide if it is a success or not ? Are there any tangible benefits to the UK population that could be measured, but that would not have occurred as a member state of the EU ?

You can measure it years down the line when people are still whinging about not being able to get a doctors appointment, overcrowded schools, low pay etc.

Of course people will have long stopped talking about brexit as another scapegoat will have been devised.

Only time will tell. Question is how long to wait? JRM estimated that it would be 50 years before the full benefits of Brexit will be realised.

Many things can change in 50 years.

Might have had WWIII in that time and the entire planet nuked and dead?

Sorry mrs, I’m most definitely not a Brexiter

Imho anyone who voted tory at the last election is a brexitier - Brexit was almost the only policy Johnson actually had!!!
the alternative wasn't unthinkable at all, 5 years of Labour, almost certainly in a coalition with other parties, would be far more acceptable than Johnson and his far right cronies and thats before we get to the decades of damage brexit will do.

Though as you also voted tory in 2015, perhaps you'd like to take some responsibility for DC and his bloody referendum too :(

Economically it is already a disaster so it will really have to be brilliant to make up for the billions already lost.

jas TBH it’s people like you that hold such grudges about all this that drive me insane - it achieves nothing

It’s actually worse than the unicorn Leavers because at least they actually did win and are getting something they wanted ie, to say we’ve left

Constantly slagging off the Tories and anyone who’s ever voted for them is beyond tedious, likewise trying to blame people for what’s already happened is entirely pointless - it’s happening.

You got a Tory government this time, in 2017 and in 2015 because the opposition was and still is shite

I didn’t vote Tory in 2015 based on their commitment to a referendum, it wasn’t really even on my radar

I voted Tory last year because I was sick of the limbo - at least the Tories have to own it now

What does frustrate me is that lack of clarity on what the actually own, hence this thread

But it is still better than the pissing around that would have ensued with a Labour minority / coalition with no direction or mandate whatsoever

Seem to remember from the past that Jasjas stated that before anyone should have been allowed to vote in the 2016 referendum they should have been examined on the GFA and economics?

Leave won the vote.

That people may have voted Conservative in the past does not mean they are certain to be Brexit supporters. My parents are leave supporters, but vote labour.

I just think that not having any goals or targets let’s them off the hook

Chancellor wants to double growth while imposing additional costs and obstacles to trade on businesses, so maybe as a Tory voter you can hold him to that.

Hard to measure impacts when there are many moving parts but you can evaluate vs a policy objective or as suggested below versus peers.

No @MysteryTripAgain i never said that, you misconstrued what i said and i put you straight on that at the time.

However on single issue referendums, a minimum % turnout and majority might be a good idea, such as a local sports club will have before a constitutional change can take place.

Bear

No point moaning about Brexit if your voting habits enabled it is there?

I do recall you said you voted tory in 2015 but not in 2017?

Labour had a moderate leader in '15 too. However, as you say, brexit is happening but i will blame and hold brexitiers/tory voters/govt to account on leaving the EU and for their Austerity policies which have inflicted misery on millions but so long as it keeps Labour out, who gives a 4X ?

Unlike a labour govt, brexit is forever, it cannot be undone nor, short of joining EFTA/EEA, mitigated in any form whatsoever and neither of those will happen under the tories, so well fucking done.

I'm not even sure Brexiteers really know what 'successful' Brexit will look like. For some it's probably a UK the same as now, but no money going to EU, fewer foreigners around and having a blue passport.

For others it's maybe a much more radical England with little or no regulation, a bopnfire of so called red tape and content to wave goodbye to Scotland and NI.

For the rest of the country I'd think a good outcome would be minimal disruption to travel and trade, food and fuel prices not rising too much, and foreign owned companies deciding to remain in Uk, so minimal job losses.

I don’t think it’s a question of how much we change. We’d change a great deal more by becoming a genocidal dictatorship with unstandardised matters sizing than we would slightly reducing immigration and calling soft cheese from Somerset feta but not otherwise changing. That doesn’t make the former more successful than the latter. What lazy thinking.

@jasjas1973 yes, their austerity policies have made my life horrible! I’m so pissed of they haven’t given me the money to buy a Lamborghini, the bastards! Labour members who allowed the overspending/general economic negligence during the Blair years and the hard left policies that have turned away voters in recent years are just as much to blame for allowing the Tories to hold power as the people who voted for them.

@jasjas1973 oh and lots of people voted tactically in the last election. I did (our income comes from a small business, we wouldn’t have been able to support ourselves under labours policies). If Johnson had stood to call off brexit altogether it wouldn’t have made an difference to me.

I do recall you said you voted tory in 2015 but not in 2017?

Do you make notes of everyone’s voting pattern jas or just mine! 🤔

You are quite right, I didn’t vote Tory in 2017, I spoilt my ballot paper

IMO it’s just as much the fault of those who let the Tories win as those who actively voted for them but I appreciate you’ll never understand or agree with that, preferring to stick with blaming the nasty Tories for everything

If there had been a viable alternative people would have chosen it. Instead the great Corbyn totally fucked it up with his promises of free ponies for all and no clear direction on Brexit - people saw through it

They knew you can’t run an economy whilst giving everything away for free and they wanted Brexit to be dealt with following 3 and a half years of pissing around

Anyway, you are determined to carry on with a huge chip on your shoulder about something none of us can now change and I still fail to understand what you hope to achieve by doing that