Westminstenders: War and Weirdos

[RedToothBrush]

With weirdos set to run No10 and Trump seemingly having started a new war in the Middle East, 2020 already looks set to be a cracking year.

To start off your year, it turns out that chinese curse about interesting times is actually a fallacy...

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times

Happy New Year.

May we make 2030...

Fair enough but this page (as an example)
www.leeds.ac.uk/info/123000/international_students/365/brexit_information_for_students

It may be that some university administrators have taken yesterday's vote at face value and have got wires crossed.

But if U.K. unis refuse Erasmus students, even in error, the partner unis are likely to reciprocate.

Voting against the Erasmus amendment was a tactical error that is likely to lead to the U.K. leaving Erasmus, simply because everyone is now assuming that we have already left.

Listening, I don't have a link, sorry.
I was told by our Vice-Dean this afternoon, who got it from our Internation Relations office.
It goes against everything we were told and I have read, so I don't understand it.
Unless it's been decided there is a clear danger the WA won't be signed and ratified by the end of the month/there will be No Deal?
As per the EC website, the UK stays in Erasmus beyond Jan 31st if the WA is signed and ratified by then.
Contingency regulations voted in in case of No Deal only apply to mobility begun before Jan 31st.
Our university advised us to ensure all outgoing students arrived in the UK before Jan 31st so they were covered by those regulations as a precautionary measure, but there was no suggestion that funding would just stop on that date for anyone not already abroad.
I'll try and find out more tomorrow.

It may be a case of crossed wires. I bloody hope so.

Auld
That makes more sense.
I suspect that University staff are sick to the back teeth of the way they are being shat upon by politicians.
Thus exasperation is overriding cool headedness when they see the latest stupidity in the House.
Fingers crossed that Transition will be obeyed by all sides
(because the WA will go through)

From that Leeds ac link on 20/21 placements...... Doesn't sound reassuring.

"Study placements to EU countries may be affected but we are working with our Higher Education partners to reduce the impact and ensure your study placement can go ahead. We can’t guarantee that all our existing Erasmus+ partners will continue to host Leeds students. We are working to secure places for our students at partner universities, with extra consideration for degrees that have a compulsory study abroad requirement. Compulsory placements may change but we will work to provide alternative opportunities"

Well, 20/21 is another kettle of fish because the current batch of Erasmus+ contracts come to an end in 2020 and will be up for renewal for the 20/21 academic year.
So if the Brexit negotiations don't go as fast or as smoothly as BJ says they will, the UK may not have settled the issue of they are in or out by the time the new contracts have to be signed. So I can see why Leeds are sounding so cagey.
But this sudden thing about an end to funding on Jan 31st is really weird and I've asked for more details.

University staff here are totally fed up with the ongoing uncertainty and students are, too. Erasmus applications to the UK have fallen by about 60% since the referendum and we expect another drop next month when applications are due for 20/21. Meanwhile we have had pretty much the same number of incoming students from the UK (because we are not a hostile environment) so the balance is totally skewed.
Which is why voting that amendment would have been a small, helpful sign.

the issue of whether they are in or out
sorry...

So the supposed subtlety of "We won't make staying in Erasmus part of the WA, so that we have a bargaining chip," has been lost the assumption "We are not interested in Erasmus."

If Trump has dementia - which seems quite plausible - it would not surprise me if he is propped up until a suitable point in the election race this year, then step down in favour of Pence.

Sadly, the news on Erasmus and the child refugees is just a foretaste of what is to come.

My aunt is staying with us atm, she is very pro Tory and Brexit, before she went to bed, i asked her about the issues with erasmus, she replied "too many young people go to Uni, so anything that cuts these numbers is good"

I feel like spitting in her tea tomo!!! (i ve a nasty cold too)

Peregrina - yes, that cunning little poker move is backfiring. Who'd have thought it, eh?

The fact that the UK is also saying it is working on creating a parallel exchange programme in case it isn't part of Erasmus in a year is not v reassuring either.
I don't know who would sign up to it, since EU countries are already paying into the Erasmus scheme. They might not be prepared to pay more on top of that so as to be part of a parallel scheme with the UK if the latter decides Erasmus isn't worth fighting for.
Or they might...

jasjas
That's classic Leave logic for you right there.
It won't cut the numbers going to university, it'll just mean they don't get to take part in exchanges while they are at university.

One thing is that those students who need to come to an English speaking country have other choices available - Ireland for a starter. The EU really don't need us as much as we need them. We really don't hold all the cards.

My aunt is staying with us atm, she is very pro Tory and Brexit, before she went to bed, i asked her about the issues with erasmus, she replied "too many young people go to Uni, so anything that cuts these numbers is good"

This is the sad thing - too many selfish people say "We never had... why should they?" Others like me think "We didn't have opportunities, I want better for my children and grandchildren."

Yep, we're expanding as many existing exchanges with Irish universities as we can and trying to set up new ones.
And colleagues are increasingly looking at Dutch/Belgian universities where courses are taught in English.
3 years of uncertainty is a long time and water has been flowing under the bridge in the meantime.
There are now 17 European Universities, too, which only 3 UK universities are involved in and which are going to benefit from Erasmus funding.

The UK definitely doesn't hold all the cards. Not that many Leavers care about this. Who needs open minds and horizons when you can curl up and gaze at your own sovereignty?

Peter Foster@pmdfoster
So. After three years of deadlock, BIG moment for NI parties tonight...lots of sweeteners; for #brexit and NI as a whole. Surely time to move.

As NI SoS says @JulianSmithUK "Now is decision time, there is something in this deal for everyone." 1/thread

BBC article

The full text is here - it contains lots of elements to protect NI economy, many of which groups like @ManufacturingNI and others pushed for after the @BorisJohnson #Brexit deal was done. /2

text

KEY section here, p47

- seat at table for NI executive representatives

- leglislative guarnatee of 'unfettered access' for NI-GB trade

That's two good reasons to do the deal; coz #Brexit happening anyway. Too late to re-litigate now. /3

Next paras are vaguer - but NI gets consulted on future trade (like other devolved Parliaments, and we don't quite know yet how that will work)....but you have to be 'in it to win it'...if NI has no exec, then Wales/Scotland get a way to be consult...but NI doesn't. /4

And para 12 "funding options to support preparedness"...points to fact that understand that a sack load of cash is heading NI's way.

NOW - I'm not saying it's magic bullet; that is sorts out the 'frontstop', but we are where we are.

How does staying out make it better? /5

At the very least it makes it harder for UK govt to get steamrollered by EU 'joint committee' being over-zealous in its implementation of the Protocol...and puts more pressure on Commission and Ireland to make it workable. /6

As @JP_Biz points out the#Brexit stuff essentially delivers the NI parties amendments rejected in Westminster y'day /7

twitter thread

There's also legislative fix on @EmmandJDeSouza - so NI people who identify as Irish aren't discriminated against by #Brexit /8

desouza explainer

It seems @duponline leader Arlene Foster is on board....

We'll find out soon enough, I guess. /9

Sorry to say it , but most people have just shut off Brexit now.

Or should I say the Tabloids have backed off. They run the country you do realise this of course.

The act of brexit as such is not the issue now but the real work is about to begin and it's awful not to have a proper Opposition in place.

leglislative guarnatee of 'unfettered access' for NI-GB trade

How is this compatible with the terms of the WA? Don't understand this bit.

It depends on your definition of unfettered doesn't it? Rather like 'access' to the Single Market.

"Unfettered" is a fairly specific, and strong, word.

The WA specifies that the GB to NI direction must have full checks, to safeguard the SIngle Market

If that is broken, then the WA is dead, transition is dead - and so is any US trade deal

It does not stop NI having completely unfettered access to GB

• the only checks there would be if GB wants to shut off an obvious entry point for E27 goods after Brexit

If the terms of the WA frontstop are broken after transition ends,
then the EU would take the UK govt to international court

It would end any future EU trade deal and the US Congress would block any US deal

An article by Afua HIrsch about how the racists have driven Meghan and Harry out - relevant to Brexit, see the 4th paragraph.