Westminstenders: War and Weirdos

[RedToothBrush]

With weirdos set to run No10 and Trump seemingly having started a new war in the Middle East, 2020 already looks set to be a cracking year.

To start off your year, it turns out that chinese curse about interesting times is actually a fallacy...

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times

Happy New Year.

May we make 2030...

Hateisnotgood - I'm not talking about the trade deal - I have to rely on boris to get a deal by the year end.

I'm trying to understand which eu programmes/institutions/agencies brexiteers want our negotiators to work with after the trade deal - I want them to establish links with as many as possible - but I don't know which the brexiteers want because they have talked about nothing but trade deal(s)

75,000 EU Nationals convicted of committing crimes in the UK
about 1.8 percent of all EU nationals in the UK

75,000 refers to an "historical backlog" of notifications not sent to European law enforcement agencies" and only appears to cover a 5 year period (after 2012); "The police national computer (PNC) error went undetected for five years."^

11 million people in the UK have criminal records,
including an astonishing 30% of all men by the age of 30

Although the research was carried out "on men born in 1953"

So less likely to commit crimes than UK nationals?
Apparently not - from the same organisation as the pp's link:

"Significant numbers of EUSS applicants will have a criminal record."

"Over 11 million people in the UK - around 1 in 6 adults - have a criminal record, and we have no reason to believe that the proportion of EU nationals with a criminal record is significantly different to this. Based on 3.3 million EU nationals, this equates to 550,000 with a criminal record."

"A Migration Advisory Committee report showed that of all the cautions/convictions that were given from 2012-2016, 88.5 per cent were given to UK/Ireland citizens, 6.7 per cent to EEA citizens and 4.7 per cent given to non-EEA citizens."

"It goes on to highlight how “EEA citizens (and in particular New Member States) are more likely to receive a caution/conviction than their share of the population would suggest although highlights caution in interpreting this.This means potentially hundreds of thousands of people with a criminal record will need to apply for settled status."

"A large number of EU nationals deported have a criminal record. Home Office statistics report the number of what they refer to as ‘foreign national offenders’ (FNOs) returned from the UK each year. In the 5 years 2014-2018, 18,050 EU nationals were deported who had been convicted in the UK or abroad.This represents 63% of all FNOs deported. In 2018 alone, 3,670 EU nationals were deported, representing more than two-thirds (68%) of all ‘foreign national offenders’ deported."

"The majority of those deported had served a prison sentence. In the 5 years 2014-2018, 15,303 EU nationals had been deported from the UK having served prison sentences. This represents 85% of the 18,050 deported."

www.unlock.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/EU-nationals-settled-status-and-criminal-records-Sept-2019.pdf

I was using the data given, to disprove the claim made.

The data you provide also proves my point, whilst EU nationals make up 4 percent of the entire population, of the population under aged 18 to 35 they are a far bigger proportion, this age group is far more likely to get caution.

The 550,000 figure, if you read correctly is an estimate.

Only making it worse malylis. I made the original comment on how FoM makes keeping track of criminals over International borders more difficult in response to an article criticising the UK Home Office for failing to apply the notification procedures rigorously. Interesting that the Guardian article chose not to consider UK Nationals moving to the EU in its figures. I actually made absolutely no "claims" about the relative criminality of any Nationality.

Other countries manage to keep track of people, and that is being within Schengen and having land borders. So why we can't as an island nation is beyond me.

The way the UK chooses to implement FOM, not how it actually works.

Well of course nearly all EU citizens deported would have a criminal record:

although they could be deported after 3 months for not being self-supporting, the UK does not have the means to track such data and can rarely do this

Do we know how many non EU immigrants are deported for crimes? We ought to know for comparison's sake, so that we can pin down whether this is a problem with FoM or whether it's just sloppy procedures on behalf of the UK.

I wanted to live in an outward-looking international UK where my children would not be abused for being foreign. I had that. Now I don't.

This ☝️

I'm not clear how "blah-blah-blah you LOSERS need to stop whinging and take part in making Britain Grate Again by saying stuff you want and making suggestions, blah-blah-blah" actually works, nor how it squares with 4 years of "You lost, shut up" and "Fuck off to your beloved EU if you won't shut up."

Then there's "Talking negatively is killing Brexit fairies so your talking is literally destroying Britain, you traitors" whilst simultaneously "You LOSERS talking about anything to do with Brexit is entirely pointless so nobody should post on this thread."

Which leads to "Why don't you LOSERS do practical things to Make Britain Grate and Brexit A Success, tell me now what you're doing for Britain" which leads to people telling the [unnamed asker] that they're working in food banks or fundraising for the homeless, which allows the [unnamed asker] to sneer "Aha! You LOSERS are Virtue-SIgnalling LOSERS for answering the question about what they're doing!"

Now, I wonder, who did that in the last thread, and is there a strange echo by the same person asking basically the same question on this thread? 🤔

The point is not whether E27 nationals have a lower crime rate

It is that the police national computer (PNC) error went undetected for five years

and - FAR worse -

that the UK tried to cover up this error so the EU wouldn't know

The trade negotiations would be much easier if the EU could rely on the Uk govt being honest,

but this attempted coverup is only one action over the last decade that show they UK govt is NOT trustworthy

so they will insist on dotting every "i" and crossing every "t" in the legal text

and they will be looking very closely that the new GB to NI border / frontstop functions as the WA specifies

Elements - I feel with a Government of mediocrities led by a thoroughly dishonest man, trying to do things to support my community is one of the things I can do. If others decide that my motives are wrong, it probably tells you more about their own moral compass.

The UK has already been fined for illegally letting in billions worth of goods from China

If others decide that my motives are wrong, it probably tells you more about their own moral compass.

Exactly!

"The 550,000 figure, if you read correctly is an estimate."

I know - I did read it correctly.

"The data you provide also proves my point"

Your point was that EU citizens were less likely to commit crimes than UK nationals - the data (6.7% cautions/convictions 2012-2016 "in particular new member states") indicates that your assumptions were incorrect.

"Only making it worse malylis."

I agree.

We haven't yet got to the bit where the UK illegally copied and passed on the Schengen database. I suspect the UK is going to find itself very isolated from EU citizens data for a very long time.

I note that all the Leavers who commented immediately fixated on E27 nationals committting crimes

rather than the far more important issue affecting the country post-Brexit that
the Uk govt covered up a serious error, which means the EU will have even less trust during trade negotiations

When a country's economy depends on getting a good deal, the govt showing yet again that they can't be trusted is bad news

However, their usual obsession with immigrants probably means those Leavers will be astonished and aggrieved that the EU negotiators will require every single detail to be in legal text instead of trusting us

The UK has already been fined for illegally letting in billions worth of goods from China

Did we pay the fine in the end? I thought the UK government had refused to pay it - it was something to do with EU customs duties.

" Interesting that the Guardian article chose not to consider UK Nationals moving to the EU in its figures."

IFF the UK has also made an error about UK nationals being convicted and covered that up too,
then the EU may indeed be more cautious about accepting more UK immigrants

However, Howabout afaik there is no evidence that there was a cockup or coverup about Uk criminals

I note that all the Leavers who commented immediately fixated on E27 nationals committting crimes

I was quoting from the extract - you can't exactly miss; "and in particular New Member States" - at least I removed the capital letters!

IFF the UK has also made an error about UK nationals being convicted and covered that up too, then the EU may indeed be more cautious about accepting more UK immigrants

It might make applications for the equivalent of settled status much harder, as well as citizenship applications. Moreover I can imagine if not predict that the UK government will be of fuck all assistance to such people who might find themselves asked for all sorts of documentation the Home Office won't provide.

Windrush, again. Only in reverse.

Personally I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with people needing to apply for visas to travel to the EU. Not because I have any specialist knowledge, but because if the last few years have taught us anything it's that the least accurate forecasts about what will happen has come from the Brexiteers. So a good rule of thumb has been to see what they are saying won't happen, and start planning for it. The Single Market, for example.

"Did we pay the fine in the end? I thought the UK government had refused to pay it - it was something to do with EU customs duties."

The UK failed to stop a massive fraud network that allowed billions in cheap Chinese textiles & footwear into Europe.

This was discovered after an investigation by OLAF in 2014 - 2016 at Felixstowe and Dover

The Uk was found in court to have broken the rules and was ordered to pay €2.7 billion in lost customs duties

The govt does not dispute it happened, but is trying to say it wasn't as much as 2.7 bn lost
However, the bill could even increase, because the EU Commission said that the UK also broke EU laws on the collection of VAT

Last I heard, the UK is being taken to international court (non-EU)

All goes to the EU being very unlikely to trust the UK wrt either competence or honesty

I remember on a thread started about the increase in British homeless due to austerity
that clavinova kept posting all the time about how they were really East European homeless, so nothing to see, move on

were really East European homeless, so nothing to see

I was referring to an article which stated that in London approx 30% of rough sleepers were EU nationals - many with no recourse to public funds - a further 30% were non-EU foreign nationals.There was also a report from Bristol CC which referred to the large increase in the number of rough sleepers from Eastern Europe - also with no recourse to public funds.

Just found this - London Borough Stats:

data.london.gov.uk/dataset/chain-reports