Westminstenders: The Undecideds

[RedToothBrush]

Apparently the pollsters are nervous.

There are far more undecided than there have been at this stage in recent general election.

This makes it a hugely fine line between a hung parliament and a massive tory majority.

The weather on Thursday isn't expected to be nice and this could affect turnout. The blue corner are particularly nervous about this, but don't forget those postal votes.

Whatever happens on Thursday at least this election campaign is nearly over. And that can't be a bad thing.

And Christmas is in a fortnight so we can all drown our sorrows or celebrate in style.

You always have time to restock the drinks if you end up resort to them on Thursday

(New election special thread on Thursday rather than bunging up Westminstenders BTW)

Just had our first Tory leaflet. The candidate tells us that although he voted Remain, (this is a strong Remain area), he wants to respect a democratic vote. He is silent on how his party leadership illegally prorogued Parliament, thus trying to frustrate Parliamentary democracy. I thought of writing back, but the leaflet just went straight in the recycling.

DGR I can't see Northfield or West Brom or many other seats returning a Tory MP.

I can see turnout being down though.

I'm in a bellweather midlands seat. I still think it may go Tory but I think the Labour candidate has closed the gap.

as a small number of them talked about how if they write 'women don't have penises' on their ballot it will surely make the news (spoiler - it won't)

It won't. It will join the pile of spoilt votes, which variously have a polite 'none of these' scrawled across, or the more usual 'they are all a bunch of wankers' etc.

And I know, because I have been to three of the last 4 counts.

Jennie 🏳️‍🌈
@JennieBujold
·
51m
Astonishing.
@NimkoAli
refuses to acknowledge that
@BorisJohnson
was being homophobic when he called gay men “tank-topped bum boys”. Kudos to
@OwenJones84
for exposing which minorities people are prepared to throw under the bus at this election.

twitter.com/i/status/1204348249517285377

Cat I feel like I have been talking about page 48 since October 2017.

There are a lot of people who seem to want page 48, because they don't understand what page 48 means because they don't understand the concept of democracy. We know this because of all the rhetoric and the current weakness of the press to hold to account. The three pillars of democracy are being tested and are in no small part failing.

It does not help that our current electoral system - which the Tories and Cons both support - really undermines the concept that you genuinely have a say in politics.

Its only people in marginals or target seats who are regarded as important. If you aren't in the right demographic you are ignored as a potential voter because you are considered unlikely to be worth investing time in.

I do think that a constituency based representative is worthwhile, but I also think that some sort of proportional represention is now essential in this country to make everyone feel they do have worth as a voter.

Thats the problem. And its the problem in the US.

I'm currently looking through the lists of seats by voter registrations. What is striking is the number of seats where reg is down, and the seat has only ever been held by Labour since the seat was created. All but one of these particular seats are amongst the highest leave areas in the country. Then there is Holland and the South Deeping - which was the seat with the highest Conservative vote in 2017 (it also had one of the highest leave votes).

This is where the problem lies.

A fundamental issue with the electoral system not being fit for purpose and allowing voters to participate in democracy.

If you don't have a meaningful participation in democracy, what difference does page 48 make to you anyway?

And thats in essence the central issue in terms of democracy.

We know that the Conservatives are facing a long term existential crisis to their voter base, so they have two choices - either reverse that via engagement or rig the system to their favour. Guess which is easier in practice?

Why are we really surprised with whats going on with that in mind?

Incidently voter registrations don't appear to be up in the most marginal seats, which might be something of a surprise. Notable exceptions being Kensington (currently Labour held by just 20 votes and where Sam Gyimah is standing) which is Tory Target no 2 and Southampton Itchen (currently Con held by just 31 votes) which is Labour Target no 1.

I think that seats which change hands are going to come from strange places on the target list this time around. They aren't necessarily going to be the most marginal seats from 2017. The pattern of registrations does seem to have large nods to the concept of Labour Leave / Labour Remain v Con Leave / Con Remain.

This naturally does favour the Conservatives though it loosely looks like registrations are up more in remainy area. Which would resemble the Eu election results to a a degree too.

That does suggest it will be closer than earlier polls have suggested by its still hard to see anything but a Tory Majority from this information.

I just can't see enough to make me think 'hmm this could be more into hung parliament territory'. I hope I'm wrong, but there is nothing thats making me go 'ooo thats a shock' from the registration numbers data.

The Next Thing to give us more of a feel is the 10pm YouGov MRP poll tonight, followed by observational comments into turnout on the day, followed by that exit poll at 10pm Thursday.

Shit is starting to get real.

I just don't know what to say, Pretzels. But well done trying to raise awareness about page 48.

Red

I agree.

There's so much I want to say about your post.

But mainly I just want to shout 'You're right!'

And I want to run out into the street and tell people.

But - every time I have tried, people don't get it.

Is it me?

Am I not articulate enough?

I'm pretty sure I came to this conclusion through your discussions and those of a friend with the same view.

Perhaps I'm just not as clear as the two of you.

But I cannot get it across.

North west Leicestershire could be intetesting although I fully expect a tory win...
Bridgen is VERY unpopular - even with his own local party members.
Had bxp stood he would have been in trouble.
Excellent local labour candidate this time which it hasn't had since the late david Taylor mp.
Libertarian (!?) & an independent are standing but no communications from either one.
I guess bxp votes could go there?
Green and lib dem both standing - can't see either doing well.
A few UKIP voters I (sort of) know spoilt their ballots in 2017. Maybe there will be more ballot spoilage?

And I know you've been talking about page 48. 😁

Credit to you.

That's what I meant about Polly Toynbee having a greater reach than these threads. 🤷‍♀️

I'm just not convinced the polls are right...

Maybe it's misplaced hope? But this GE seems a very different beast.

So many undecideds.
So many young people registering to vote.
So many leavers refusing to vote.
A possible higher % of spoilt ballots.
Potentially very nasty weather.

Dunno.

I have also posted about p 48 and was branded a conspiracy theorist and gaslighter.

As an ex lawyer and an ex Tory, this is probably the biggest issue for me in this election. The Tories have of course included similar in previous manifestos but I have never really been concerned that they would be successful. I think the difference now is that Johnson will have a huge appetite to get this done, to prevent further legal challenges re Parliamentary scrutiny around Brexit issues and therefore avoid looking weak.

thecatfromjapan
Allison Pearson is wading in on the scandal of the child lying on coats in the hospital, claiming it was faked (a nurse has explained to her it was faked); claiming the mother is upset it was politicised by Corbyn (hold on - doesn't that rather contradict claim #1?); and that a FB account has been forwarded to her, claiming an anonymous nurse at the hospital told the FB account (FB account called 'Vote Conservstive') that she saw the mother faking the photo.
All on Twitter. On Allison Pearson's timeline.

I was pretty-much right in the last thread when I wrote

I am waiting for the Tory propaganda machine to suggest that the NHS having patients on trolleys in corridors has been deliberately organised by "anti-Conservative doctors".

wasn't I.

On a different subject
Cars in this constituency with Labour stickers in them have had their windows broken, and a group of yobs has been ripping down Labour placards on poles in people's gardens in one part of it. Labour canvassers have been warned not to go out in groups of fewer than four. Someone who was offered an "I'm voting Labour" sticker to put on her coat said she wouldn't dare wear that in her area.

there was a huge exodus of moderates

Where have they gone? Have they all retired from politics and given up on their country?

You talked about voter registrations being down in traditional Labour areas, Red, but is that simply demographics - that young people are leaving these areas, leaving the elderly, who not surprisingly are more likely to die?

It all depresses me too - I hope something gains traction to deny the Tories their majority. Even though Johnson and his cronies behave like bumbling fools, bumblers can do an awful lot of damage - as much as deliberate wreckers do.

@LimitedSimba123.

@AskingQuestionsAlltheTime.

Yes.

Can report similar from where I am.

Have they all retired from politics and given up on their country?

Gone to count the money they will make from their Directorships. Yes, Ed Vaizey, people like you.

AskingQuestions same here, with LibDem posters being vandalised. It does always happen though.

I have yet to see a Tory poster.

Armando Iannucci
@Aiannucci
In the light of Johnson’s behaviour yesterday, I’m reposting my thread asking traditional Conservative voters to think again about him and what he would do with the unlimited power a large majority would give him 1/7

It doesn't always happen where I am, Peregrina.

It's beyond peaceable where I'm based.

I've been really shocked.

Just been to immigration to ask about changing my residency card (I'm in Spain) to Irish. I think although there is a lot of push back and possibly more tactical voters and young voters, it isn't enough. And wirh fptp not enough in seats that matter.
I don't think it will be tory landslide but I do think they'll have a working majority. And even as a Brit abroad with an Irish passport, that scares the crap out of me.

By all that's holy ...

The NHS story just gets worse and worse.

You know the 'this is faked!' Counter-narrative story (put out by Alison Pearson)?

It now appears that it was a deep fake.

A woman is now saying her account was hacked for that story.

True? Not true?

This is just breaking our media system.

https://amp.theguardian.com/media/2019/dec/10/woman-says-account-hacked-to-post-fake-story-about-hospital-boy?twitterr_impression=true

I put a Vote Labour election flyer in my window yesterday.

And for the first time ever had a 2nd thought about the wisdom of it, entertaining the possibility of a brick through the window. Or something unpleasant through the letterbox.

This is where we are as a country isn't it? I live semi-rural, in the High Peak. I'd suspect a Leave voting area. Really low crime levels...

I mean, the only up-side is that this amount of effort to bury this story - or hide it in plain sight, amidst a welter of untruth - shows how damaging it is.

But that's poor compensation.