Westminstenders: The Undecideds

[RedToothBrush]

Apparently the pollsters are nervous.

There are far more undecided than there have been at this stage in recent general election.

This makes it a hugely fine line between a hung parliament and a massive tory majority.

The weather on Thursday isn't expected to be nice and this could affect turnout. The blue corner are particularly nervous about this, but don't forget those postal votes.

Whatever happens on Thursday at least this election campaign is nearly over. And that can't be a bad thing.

And Christmas is in a fortnight so we can all drown our sorrows or celebrate in style.

You always have time to restock the drinks if you end up resort to them on Thursday

(New election special thread on Thursday rather than bunging up Westminstenders BTW)

Denton & Reddish -2% = Labour leavers not bothering to turn out, presumably. Hopefully it won’t do any harm to Andrew Gwynne, his majority was pretty big last time. Apart from three leaflets from him (one personally addressed), the only election communication I’ve had is that thing everyone got yesterday from Nige. So looks as though not much effort going into trying to take this one from Labour, although it’s technically a Leave seat.

Strongly remain Labour areas have mobilised registrations. But that could be stacked votes which don't change anything.

Vauxhall looks tasty. (Kate Hoey land)

Eddisbury is an interesting one (Antoinette Sandbach was con now LD)

Congleton and North West Leicestershire are very seat Con seats. Leave leaning. Fiona Bruce and Andrew Bridge (both ERG I believe)

Derby North is the disgraced former Labour Chris Williamson and Derby South is Margaret Beckett. They could both be interesting.

Yes.
Stacked votes don't count for a lot in FPTP.
☹️

Wow, Polly Toynbee is leaving it all out there on the field with her latest article isn't she!

Hugh Grant’s withering response to Boris’s Johnston’s Love Actually Spoof Video

Polly Toynbee is making an 11th hour attempt to alert people to the dangers of page48 if the Conservative manifesto.

She has limited reach.

Larger than these threads - but limited all the same.

Page 48 has the potential to turn the UK into an 'elected autocracy'.

It's that worrying.

And we will be relying on Johnson's good-will not to do that.

Let that sink in.

And it's in the manifesto precisely because Johnson can say - legitimately - people voted for it.

How many people know and understand about page 48?

When the 'debate' on BBCQT is about nationalising sausage?

Well, Polly Toynbee's doing her bit but ...

Seriously, things are so broken.

Go back a mere 10 years and something if this magnitude would - rightly- have been front and centre of media coverage.

Go back 40 years and there would have been extended analysis of it across media that the majority had access to.

It's an unreal situation that we're in.

How many people know and understand about page 48?

Or dismiss it as a “conspiracy theory”? (You don’t have to look to far on MN to see this trotted out).

Or just don’t care?

Just don't care but will be happy to scream about Democracy.

I think a problem is that it's hard to care about something unless its material relevance to your own life, and its importance, is spelt out clearly, forcibly, and with enough prominence, for people to really grasp it.

It's the only way you can reach through the dismissal.

☹️

So you would hope that the little boy being treated in a corridor would be a wake up call for some - 'that could be my son/daughter or grandchild'.

Page 48 is that worrying. I was talking to some lawyer friends who were just appalled about it.

Do we have any feel for how many of the new Tory MPs will buy into the government's free rein agenda? I know there's too many unknowns as yet, and that there was a huge exodus of moderates but surely as a straw to clutch there will still be some left who would defy the whip?

You know, lonely, I strongly suspect a lot of Conservative MPs have their heads in the sand about page 48.

Most are like us, and won't have noticed what it really meant until it was pointed out.

And, as for going along with it; well, it was in the manifesto, and the people voted for it.

That is both a get-out for the morally lazy and a powerful brake on rebellion for those who are conscientious.

Sadly some will just be writing it off as a local management mistake or something like that. It's easy enough to do that if the alternative is blaming a party you otherwise (however inexplicably) want to trust, and much more comfortable and less worrying than seeing it as a sign of a systematic problem that might affect them. You don't need to go full conspiracy theorist to discount stories like this, if you have enough incentive to do so.

That was in response to Peregrina re the little boy on the floor.

I keep thinking how page 48 sums up how insane this GE is.

Can you imagine standing outside Sainsbury's, trying to get people to vote on the issue of page 48?

It's hugely important.

Hugely.

But ... can you imagine what a hiding to nothing you'd be on if your canvassing focussed on it? Gave it its due importance?

And that is part of why this GE is absolutely bizarre.

Birmingham Northfield is an interesting seat to watch (I'm following about 4 brum seats because I'm a full on political geek now 😂).

It's the constituency that was home to Rover back in the day and I think has the Lifford recycling and refuse centre with the bin strikes in recent years. Local support for striking is very strong.

All new developments in the area have caused problems with flooding which brings some of the main roads to a standstill.

It was originally a labour safe seat but after boundary changes a few years back the Labour MP has only won by a small percentage.

It's also home to one of the worse estates in Birmingham. Labour have actually bothered to campaign across Northfield including the estates - this is unheard of. The conservatives have not to the best of my knowledge. It was in the local paper that some of the conservative leaflets had a print/distribution error which resulted in Northfield being in Wales according to the leaflets.

If it turns blue then I will take it not just as a sign of a tory majority but as a sign of the apocalypse.

Seriously, we are voting for the potential to undo our own democracy.

Sure, Johnson may not do that ... we hope.

But we are voting potentially for that.

And it is actually not possible to explain that to the majority of the electorate.

Theoretically, it's possible.

But in fact it's not.

So people are potentially going to democratically vote against democracy.

Without truly being informed that is what they are doing.

That is a massive system failure.

And it's possible Johnson will not undo our democracy. We hope.

But it's one hell of a bad precedent. And it leaves a gaping hole for anyone who wants to.

Pmk

Theo Underwood about Robert Buckland

This is an on-the-record quote from the man who stands a very good chance of being Justice Secretary and Lord Chancellor if the Tories win on Thursday.

He says he wants to change the law to limit the impact non-party political groups can have in an election.

That is all.

Pmk again
Stupid phone

Birmingham Northfield is an interesting seat to watch

At the height of the Rover crisis, when 5,000 workers lost their jobs 3 months prior to the 2005 election, they returned a Labour MP.

www.theguardian.com/business/2005/apr/10/politics.motoring

Notice how much the Labour government was held to blame, as an indication of quite how Labour Northfield was to still vote Labour.

It's personal knowledge like this, which makes me wonder about some of the "polls" that are being touted.

He says he wants to change the law to limit the impact non-party political groups can have in an election.

A one party state, of course ...

It was Northfield where all those “Labour voters” were declaring they’d “now vote Tory” on that news programme the other day

Or dismiss it as a “conspiracy theory”? (You don’t have to look to far on MN to see this trotted out).

Yes I was told off on the feminist board for talking about page 48. 'couldn't take me seriously' 'deranged marxists' and 'do you know how much harm you're doing?' all trotted out ... as a small number of them talked about how if they write 'women don't have penises' on their ballot it will surely make the news (spoiler - it won't)

Now I don't disagree with GC concerns, but if anyone thinks they are 'protecting their daughter' by spoiling their ballot in this election of all elections - then they really haven't been paying attention.

A one party state, of course ...

Youre missing one thing though, a one party state will be fine under the conservatives look how rich weve become as a nation since 2010 and the most important point AAARRRGGGHHHH!!!!!! scary Corbyn