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Original poster

Westminstenders: The Undecideds

987 replies

RedToothBrush · 09/12/2019 19:55

Apparently the pollsters are nervous.

There are far more undecided than there have been at this stage in recent general election.

This makes it a hugely fine line between a hung parliament and a massive tory majority.

The weather on Thursday isn't expected to be nice and this could affect turnout. The blue corner are particularly nervous about this, but don't forget those postal votes.

Whatever happens on Thursday at least this election campaign is nearly over. And that can't be a bad thing.

And Christmas is in a fortnight so we can all drown our sorrows or celebrate in style.

You always have time to restock the drinks if you end up resort to them on Thursday

(New election special thread on Thursday rather than bunging up Westminstenders BTW)

OP posts:
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DoctorTwo · 11/12/2019 00:38

Leave him and go and hit your scratcher. As long as he's comfortable and warm he'll be fine for 6 hours or so. Sleep well.

I'm hoping against hope that the LDs in Fuxbridge go out to vote on Thursday, hold their nose and vote Labour to winkle that lying, racist, narcissistic psychopath out of parliament.

Lucygoeswalkies · 11/12/2019 00:43

According to the graph that Red posted, no women will be voting for Plaid Cymru. Well, I will be - and the last time I looked...

Alsohuman · 11/12/2019 00:44

.

Peregrina · 11/12/2019 00:58

When the Brexit Arms people get their win, I look forward to them being disappointed and whining and whinging. I will have zero sympathy.

It's just what other damage will be done by the Tories. Although if it's like Major's victory in 1992 it was something of a Pyrrhic victory.

Apileofballyhoo · 11/12/2019 02:18

Keep on hoping. That 'I or We' video had me in tears.

Apileofballyhoo · 11/12/2019 02:19

Hope you're getting some sleep colouring.

lonelyplanetmum · 11/12/2019 04:12

* I'm awake as always...practising being awake in the night ready for Friday. Hope DScolouring* is feeling better.

On it Looks like the lovely ?? Zach Goldsmith is a goner.

He only had a 45 vote majority last time and the same LibDem (Sarah Olney) has won before.

But just to say Zac Goldsmith is really not lovely. I've met him:

  1. He is a rabid hard Brexiteer who pontificates with bad points and does not give credence to his (very engaged pro remain) constituents.
  1. His voting record on 'they work for you' is not good. Always votes to shrink welfare and disability benefits - whilst voting to avoid bankers' bonus taxes, and protect salaries of over £150k from tax.
  1. His Dad started the whole referendum ball rolling in the first place - motivated by avoiding consumer and workers' rights. And he echos this.
  1. Don't forget that he made shocking comments in the mayoral campaign linking Sadiq Khan with being an extremist who encouraged terrorism. articlee*

Finally his voting record on Green issues isn't as good as you'd think as he votes a mixture of for and against measures to prevent climate change.

ClashCityRocker · 11/12/2019 06:04

My constituency feels in line with what I've been seeing/hearing.

Closer than usual for Labour, but still likely to be Conservative.

QueenOfThorns · 11/12/2019 06:34

I think that was sarcasm about Zac Goldsmith!

No surprises in my constituency Smile

frumpety · 11/12/2019 06:49

I have likely Conservative in my patch from that YouGov thing, there is an overlap with the LibDems. DH and I will be voting Libdem as don't want to get Brexit done Smile

bellinisurge · 11/12/2019 06:51

Mine's gone from safe Labour back in the day to "Likely Labour ". That's what happens if you piss off the 60+% Leave vote and go against public opinion on a local environmental issue.

bellinisurge · 11/12/2019 06:52

Sorry, Lean Labour not Likely Labour.

frumpety · 11/12/2019 06:54

How do you find out how many people were polled in each constituency ?

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 11/12/2019 07:01

As a matter of interest is there anyone wildly disagreeing with what YouGov says for their own constituency compared to what they think? Not the overall prediction but just your own seat.
Not in any of our 3 constituencies, though I hope they're wrong on the lab seat turning blue - it's dropping from a very definite turn to a close call at least.
Though the other 2 are very very blue, I'd love to see them being a lot less blue than predicted, but I suspect they're right in those seats.

Piggywaspushed · 11/12/2019 07:02

I think both tossups I know of will turn blue. It's a fed upness with hearing about Brexit.

Piggywaspushed · 11/12/2019 07:06

St Albans likely LD, so that's good.

frumpety · 11/12/2019 07:08

Found the total figure 105,612 , polled between 4th and 10th of December. So that's about 162 people in each or have they asked more in some and less in others depending on population size, number of eligible voters ? Or is it just people who are registered and have completed their online surveys ?

Smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 11/12/2019 07:15

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

ContinuityError · 11/12/2019 07:22

My constituency pretty much as expected - big Tory majority but with LD overtaking Labour as runner up.

I’ve done a few YouGov polls in recent weeks - I would often get a “in your constituency (x) how likely are you to vote (scale of 1 to 10) and which party / candidate will you vote for / are you undecided.”

TiddleTaddleTat · 11/12/2019 07:35

Yougov has the LDs winning in my seat, with Lab close behind. I am hoping that Labour takes it as I'm not convinced that LDs wouldn't work with the Tories if needed.

frumpety · 11/12/2019 07:41

I don't have any strong feelings about the LibDems, I just know Labour haven't a chance here and politically I would prefer a hung parliament rather than a Conservative majority.

DivisionBelles · 11/12/2019 07:42

We've gone from a Strong to a Likely Conservative. There's a strong tactical voting movement here, so hoping that there's a remote chance of a surprise result on Friday. Would make my Christmas. Current incumbent is known as the Invisible Man(n) as has barely been seen during the campaign.

Random18 · 11/12/2019 07:45

Tiddle the concern in your seat is that Lab / LD split the vote and tory sneak in.

Original poster
RedToothBrush · 11/12/2019 07:45

Just a point about what the tories need for a majority.

Technically its 326 BUT Sinn Fein means they actually need slightly less than that for a working majority. And then there is the effect of the Speaker and his deputies.

Given that the lowest estimate YouGov have for seats is 311 that means by the time you account for the DUP and their seats its extremely unlikely that Johnson won't be able to form a government of some form and the chances are he will have the numbers without the DUP.

Some come Friday, he is still likely to be PM.

Unless something very unexpected happens.

Sorry if that bursts bubbles of those hoping for a hung parliament and Johnson gone but I want to prepare every mentally in realistic terms.

Don't forget Johnson has also ousted his rebels too...

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colouringinpro · 11/12/2019 07:54

Labour and Lib Dems leafleting outside my station this morning. We're fucked. Absolutely no chance of one of them winning in long time Tory stronghold.