Westminstenders: The Undecideds

[RedToothBrush]

Apparently the pollsters are nervous.

There are far more undecided than there have been at this stage in recent general election.

This makes it a hugely fine line between a hung parliament and a massive tory majority.

The weather on Thursday isn't expected to be nice and this could affect turnout. The blue corner are particularly nervous about this, but don't forget those postal votes.

Whatever happens on Thursday at least this election campaign is nearly over. And that can't be a bad thing.

And Christmas is in a fortnight so we can all drown our sorrows or celebrate in style.

You always have time to restock the drinks if you end up resort to them on Thursday

(New election special thread on Thursday rather than bunging up Westminstenders BTW)

Part of the A Smith fan club too.

@BlueGingerale

No, less than that, more like 20%.

Looks like the lovely Zach Goldsmith is a goner.

It would only be 50% if BJ and Labour opponent were neck and neck.

I went to 4 things that the lovely Alyn Smith was either chairing or was on the panel in October. He was lovely at all of them - although his "joke" when looking for questioners (took 3 at a time, alternating men & women), that "I am looking for a woman.....not often you hear me saying that " wasn't quite as spontaneous the 2nd time you heard it

Zac Goldsmith is a safe bet to be gone I feel.

One of the safest bets of the night.

Just noticed my autocarrot typo: "stunning start" should have been running start although "stunning start" does work

The photo I couldn't post last night of our boys having a wee spat while defending their place. Given the febrile state of the nation, it seemed appropriate

Slight ray of hope in that poll for my area - looks safe conservative, but the right-most point of the yellow line is level with the left-most point on the blue line sooo... if the stars align, if horses start eating each other and owls start attacking falcons* then maybe a surprising LibDem victory??

(Combination of election and Macbeth revision has broken me. The cat woke me up by jumping on my stomach, then my poor DH awoke to me holding the cat aloft, intoning “Sleep no more, Macbeth* has murdered sleep!”

*Cat’s not even called Macbeth.)

Yah well - i'll do it for you me hearties....

Music icons in cyan aka - scroll on by.

Ne'er mind - hopefully soon your 'political glands' will boot up and ye'r will take more intrest in what goes on and how it happens. So after GE you can make the difference to where it's needed.

Best of Luck All.

My constituency has moved from "Lean SNP" to "Likely SNP"

I don't think he was ever really at risk but it's good to see the movement confirmed

As a matter of interest is there anyone wildly disagreeing with what YouGov says for their own constituency compared to what they think? Not the overall prediction but just your own seat.

As I've just posted: my constituency chimes with my instincts. The other constituency I "know" which is my Dad's (East Dunbartonshire: currently Jo Swinson) is suggesting "Lean LibDem" which is probably about right even though my dad has left a proxy vote for the SNP so will be hoping it's wrong It's within the margin of error so could go SNP

Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94
New - Our final MRP of the campaign shows a small Conservative majority likely.

Central estimate is a majority of 28.

However at this stage we still cannot rule out a hung parliament.

Two reasons for this.

Firstly the MRP comes with a margin of error, just like all polling.

The current estimates mean the Conservatives could be anywhere between 311 and 367.

Secondly, we have seen a late swing towards Labour, with the Conservative lead decreasing since the weekend.

It is difficult to say at this stage if this has any further to run between now and Thursday.

On a personal note, this is the most difficult outcome for us as pollsters. I realise it is not helpful to be this close to election day and for us not be able to provide a clearer answer.

But the data shows what the data shows.

I would say my overall probabilities on the final result remain unchanged.

Chris Curtis @chriscurtis94 - 2nd Dec
If you were to force me to put probabilities on it, I would say:
Tory majority: 70%
Hung parliament: 30%
But that is probably a silly thing to do.

No.

I'm so, so tired of living under a Tory government. 😞

As a nurse, I met a new patient today. He told me he had always voted Tory and he voted leave.
In this general election he has decided not to vote at all because he feels he already has.
I wonder how many more people there are out there like this that the Tories will lose?

Analysing the figures, 14 seats have a Tory lead of 3% or less (i.e. a 1.5% swing needed).... If the Tories get 14 fewer seats than the 339 prediction, they lose their majority.... Given the margin of error for seats is 5%, this poll must Tory HQ rattled!

No disagreement here. The LibDems are higher than I expected given it’s usually a very safe Tory seat, but would still need a small miracle to overtake. That slight LibDem surge does seem to reflect what people are saying locally.

I hate FPTP.

Meanwhile, my poorly ds has finally fallen asleep next to me on the sofa. He's 11, to big to lift. Do I wake him or leave him? Stay with him or leave him?

Can you gently move away from him without disturbing him and then cover him with a blanket? If so, I'd leave him there.

How poorly, colouring?

I'm an over-anxious mum, with a lot of throws and blankets.

So I'd probably put a blanket over him if he was mine & make a nest for myself nearby.

yeah probably, thanks x. It's weird although he's not a baby, I feel weird leaving him downstairs on his own!

complicated cat but your nest idea is appealing. I'll just main line coffee tomorrow...

thanks v much both