Westminstenders: The Undecideds

[RedToothBrush]

Apparently the pollsters are nervous.

There are far more undecided than there have been at this stage in recent general election.

This makes it a hugely fine line between a hung parliament and a massive tory majority.

The weather on Thursday isn't expected to be nice and this could affect turnout. The blue corner are particularly nervous about this, but don't forget those postal votes.

Whatever happens on Thursday at least this election campaign is nearly over. And that can't be a bad thing.

And Christmas is in a fortnight so we can all drown our sorrows or celebrate in style.

You always have time to restock the drinks if you end up resort to them on Thursday

(New election special thread on Thursday rather than bunging up Westminstenders BTW)

The 95% relates to the confidence that the poll is within 3-5% of the actual vote. So even if 5% out, the poll is deemed consistent with expected levels of accuracy

I suppose it depends on how well they have modelled and understand the constituency demographics.

All three Sunderland seats look set to remain Labour.

I suppose it depends on how well they have modelled and understand the constituency demographics.

Yes, that assumes sampling is perfect... and it won’t (and can’t!) take account of don’t knows....

So don’t place too much store on this poll!

Chingford and Wood Green could be close too.

Another squeaky bum to keep an eye on

Chingford and Wood Green has been a safe Tory seat since it was created in 1997, held by former party leader Iain Duncan Smith the entire time. But with demographic changes and other local factors the comfortable advantage they had has changed. Current results now show a two-point lead for the Conservatives (47% versus Labour’s 45%)

I know a few of the DUP...not by choice! And once they decide against someone, that's it. That Arlene came out against Johnson means he has NO chance. They are too Christian to put it in anything but polite terms...but basically if he needs them, he's fucked.

So if I understand it right, the prediction is a majority of 30ish, but margin of error could take that up.... or down into hung Parliament territory. Im not feeling optimistic either

What did this show in 2017? To try and compare

LQ - thanks - I should have said in my area (SW - spec. Devon); although when I was councilloring and clerking for 2 different SE Parishes (very developed, really Towns) none of the Cllrs took any Allowances nor hardly claimed any out-of-pocket expenses.

Different places - different things. It's a hard call - you have to weigh up the intrusion and unpaid bs against your own life and what needs to be done. A few give up a part of themselves to keep things going - like RTB's DP - and not only do they not get any appreciation, they're open to criticism and scrutiny - just for giving a part of themselves to help keep things going.

So easy to criticize those that do, so much harder to actually do it.

Random IIRC the 2017 and 2019 yougov polls are remarkably similar, 1% out on the Tory and Lab vote share.
Saw a twitter post comparing them earlier but can't find it now...

Random I think it was very close

Sorry I mean 2015, I think... (tired brain)

The last YouGov MRP poll before the election was closest to the result. It predicted a hung parliament.

Make of that what you will.

(personally I think that polls are driving votes tactically more than in 2017, so i have that in mind. And that might affect the most marginal on this particular prediction. But that can go in both directions)

I understand that the yougov polls in 2017 showed less movement than those that have been completed this election. Make of that what you will. It may be meaningless.

Also squeezy bum for Theresa Villers. She's Chipping Barnet which is being predicted to go Labour now.

Here’s the prediction for Uxbridge. Doesn’t it mean there’s about a 50% chance of Boris losing it?

(Because the blue and red lines overlap so much?)

Women looking slightly more likely to turnout.

Interesting.

Graph...

Paula Surridge @p_surridge
Something to watch. The yougov MRP model has this gender split - but the regular polling has had much smaller Con leads among female voters (with 15% still undecided).

Norwich North looking very close. Daring to hope a few less tory seats.

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall
MRP likely Conservative losses. Esher and Walton high up. Higher than Hastings and Rye, with tiny Conservative maj

But some very low probabilities of Labour keeping some seats which have been red (albeit some getting this paler) for a very long time.

If MRP is right and Labour gain only two seats in this election it would be an historically poor performance for an opposition, which usually wins at least some new ground, even in bad years (they could still be down net). Eg In 1983 Labour gained 4 and in 2001 Hague’s Tories 9.

According to MRP had the election taken place three weeks ago, Boris Johnson would have been looking at something akin to Margaret Thatcher’s 1987 landslide.

Now it’d be closer to John Major’s 1992 much narrower victory.

Does it slip lower? Trend is marked.

Given that the SNP candidate in Stirling is the lovely Alyn Smith (he of the chers amis speech immediately after the Referendum and the leave the light on before one of the deadline(s) when it could have been his last speech in the EP), I'm not surprised he's predicted to do well He was canvassing long before the election was announced, so he had stunning start