Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

But his figures must be all wrong because Jonathan Portes is a well-known fan of Boris, Brexit, and the Tories. Editor’s Note: he’s the opposite.

Yes, I've seen his name on several anti-Brexit reports.

Trying to confuse people.
Well, I'm certainly confused.

Mr McCluskey said it was wrong to have a policy of free movement without stricter labour market regulation."

Did you miss the key part of the sentence, I'll highlight it for you without stricter labour market regulation

Most important for Conservatives:- get into power whatever the cost.

Except that that’s literally the Labour strategy: promise over a trillion pounds’ worth of “free” stuff (i.e. borrowed, taxed, or outright confiscated from someone else) and hope that people are gullible enough to vote for them without questioning the hidden price tag.

Since they don’t expect to win, they can go as large as they like - why stop at one trillion? Why not two or three? - knowing that they will never need to implement their fantasies and so can never be held to account for them. And yet all some can see is other people’s stuff sliding effortlessly into their own pockets...

Did you miss the key part of the sentence, I'll highlight it for you without stricter labour market regulation

No - I also read the Guardian headline;
"McCluskey sparks Labour backlash over tough line on free movement."

Jonathan Portes has written more here;

"According to the population estimates, the number of people born elsewhere in the EU and now resident in the UK increased by nearly 1.5 million over the eight years to mid-2017.That suggests that net migration of EU citizens to the UK over that period should have been a similar number. However, the migration statistics show cumulative net EU migration of only about 950,000."

"A very similar discrepancy–but in the opposite direction–applies to non-EU nationals.The IPS suggests total net migration of nearly 1.5 million–but the population estimates say that the number of people born outside the EU and resident in the UK has increased by less than 900,000.On the face of it, half a million people from outside the EU have vanished–but they’ve been replaced by about the same number of Europeans who we didn’t know we had."

www.escoe.ac.uk/population-estimates-and-migration-statistics-compared/

I was actually thinking about the cost to themselves Cendrillon.

Clue: not all cost is about pound, shillings and pence.

Clue: not all cost is about pound, shillings and pence.

Quite true - in Labour’s case it’s about trillions of other people’s money that they’re using to bribe you. It seems to be working.

Saw this and thought of you cendrillion

Matt Singh
@MattSingh_
·
19m
Increased CON lead (13pts) with Panelbase (methodological change to account for candidature)

Incase you didnt see this earlier in the thread cendrillion, you might not have clocked on yet when I posted it, any 'valuable' insights?

Jay Goodall🌷
@Jayrgoodall
·
9m
Another one for the doorsteps. Anyone who still thinks Labour are a ‘risk to the economy’ needs to wake up their ideas.
Quote Tweet

Ramesh Patel - They Would Rather You Ignore This
@IamalrightJack
· 4h
#bbcqt TORIES STILL WON'T ANSWER THIS

2010, Labour left a debt of £759 bn

Now 2019, debt = £1.7 Trillion

That's an increase of £1 Trillion in 9 yrs

A rise of 124% & they have nothing to show for it

So, what everyone wants to know is

WHERE'S ALL THE MONEY GONE TOO

Increased CON lead (13pts) with Panelbase (methodological change to account for candidature)

Excellent news - Labour bribery is only working with 30% of the population so far!

Saw this and thought of you cendrillion

Tell you what, Just - you keep the naff posters, and I'll keep the big polling leads. Sound good?

Definition of a cynic:-

A man who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing.

Oscar Wilde

How am I being bribed? Riddle me that please

Well, most of that 30% is being bribed. The rest might be a few percentage points representing the masochist community...

Quite true - in Labour’s case it’s about trillions of other people’s money that they’re using to bribe you. It seems to be working.

Trillions of what? I think you're missing my point about cost.

Wow! Labour are up to 30% Most excellent!

I'm fed up with politicians making incorrect assertions in TV interviews. They just get away with it.

They should have a couple of fact-checkers working behind the scenes during the interview to verify claims made and research data quoted.

They should tell the interviewee at the start that they're doing real-time fact-checking.

Then if there are any serious inaccuracies, this should be made clear/put right at the end of the interview, preferably while the politician is still sitting there.

Some interviewers are good about challenging claims when they're sure of the facts, but they can't be expected to know everything.

You want the best for others so that you too can have the best. That's how that is how a happy society should work.

But then where would we be without the misery? There's an awful lot of profit to be made from misery.

@Smilethoyourheartisbreaking same with me. The Tories being in would probably work out well for me and my family. We own two houses outright, private health insurance, my DH is director in a Silicon Valley tech company. BUT...I cannot lose the empathy I feel for people who never caught a break...mothers depending on food banks and rearing their children in poverty. And I don't want to lose it. It would be unthinkable to support the Tories. I could never forgive myself.

I got the ONS figures originally from the Sun's Tom Newton Dunn, which is certainly NOT a Labour source

They are the latest ONS have, for the Year Ending March 2019

     <span class="italic"><strong>EU (200 - 141) = 59k</strong></span> NET immigration 

non-EU (333-133) = 200k NET immigration

BJ is lying about 50:50 EU / non-EU

East European countries like Poland have massive growth rates thanksto EU regional development funds
So their numbers coming to the UK will continue to drop

Especially with the drop in Sterling since Cameron's referendum

Earlier this year, Poland overtook the UK in value of trade done with Germany