Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

PMK

An early PMK for me. What a weekend.

Morning! End of the beginning or back to square one?

I am very, very confident that Macron will not veto the extension. Important to avoid seeing this through the lens of the British press, who are highly influenced by the fact that Brexit supporters have for some unknown reason decided that Macron is the Brexit saviour they need (honestly Brexit twitter last night was a good example of collective hysteria).

PMK.

I’m so embarrassed that our PM is a petulant man child. The letter is a bit “Nanny is forcing me to write thank you letters, but I really wanted a bigger, more expensive present than the one you bought me.”

PMK.

Thanks, Red. Here's to another rollercoaster week ahead.

The EU will grant the extension. No one is going to throw Ireland under a bus.

I imagine the extension will be as now: x amount of time, transition begins the month after the WA is approved, terminating the extension.

Pmk .Am more a lurker than regular poster

When will we know if Bercow allows them bring it to vote again Monday

Does that also mean the Letwin amendment comes back as well
If not and BJ doing the same thing is he doing the no don't like the answer we so will ask again without that as option

Thanks Red. And aargh!

I think we will get a short extension.

I also think if they are going to refuse, it will be announced quickly.

PMK. Thanks @RedToothBrush

I don’t want a GE. Tories have created this mess right from the start with Cameron. I want them to have to deal with the consequences of it. Too easy to set everything up so it will be a disaster and then let someone else deal with it.
A VoC to kick BJ out is a different matter.

From the Telegraph - John Bercow set for another clash with Government when he rules whether MPs can vote again on Boris Johnson's deal

I’m also very aware that Bercow is going to step down at the end of the month.
Democracy is going to loose a big ally there.

PMK

Morning all, PMK glad all our marchers got back safe and sound I can stop worrying bout you all now

Thanks, red 💐

Westministenders' Abbreviations:

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eureferendumm2016/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation?msgid=84503730

On another note, I was reading the French news talking about JRM needing protecting as well as other big tory brexiters. With a comment about how ‘both sides are under pressure and need protection, not just Remainers’.

The immediate answer from Twitter was
There are many other doors to cone out of Westminster and they could have done that wo being seen. That was a PR exercise/optics to make themselves look good. Don’t fall for it!

I wish people in the U.K. had as much critical assessment of what happens tbh.

be'leaver' lobbyists & capture of the press:

mobile.twitter.com/dirktherabbit/status/1185817726771699712

Dirk Singer
@dirktherabbit
There are 30k newsagents in the UK including every supermarket, petrol station, train station etc

Just about everyone is hit by this stuff, we all see it, even though few actually buy the papers

For some, glancing at the front pages is pretty much how they get their news

I'm sick of the right wing press mis-reporting what's going on. The headlines about not letting us leave are utter fantasy when, actually, the deal will likely get through once the secondary legislation is in place. It just builds more tension unnecessarily. It pisses me off.

Does that also mean the Letwin amendment comes back as well

Bercow said there will be time for amendments to be submitted, I think he said 12.30pm Monday would be the deadline. He said the one thing that was absolutely certain at that point is they will be starting the session at 2.30pm Monday.

Thanks red

What are the advantages of a VoNC atm, if parties wish to risk no extension ?

• GE ? The Tories look set for a massive win, which would give them a 5-year term to do as they want on Brexit, a US FTA, rolling back workers rights, the welfare state etc
  It would enable them to go for No Deal after extension has ended

• PV ? Would require a GNU to last long enough and the votes don't look to be there

I'd expect the parties to at least wait long enough for the EU to grant an extension,
instead of gambling that they will

This WA satisfies all EU red lines and safeguards Ireland permanently, so the EU "throwing Ireland under a bus" would be doing anything that endangers the WA

imo, Remainers should concentrate on moving the clauses on workers rights, the environment etc back from the PD into the WA
Fine to try an amendment on PV, but this is expected to be easily defeated