Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

[TheABC]

I suspect the more Johnson pushes, the less in control he will be. The Lords in particular will be less than impressed with the timetable he has rolled out.

I have given up on Corbyn, but it's going to be entertaining to see the SNP's response to this.

[tobee]

But mayor of London could be seen as an almost ceremonial role, less at stake, whereas Prime Minister is the real deal. Also, with the mayor of London I don't think many Londoners necessarily know what the mayor is responsible for. Whereas Prime Minister you can blame everything on, fair or not.

Hopefully, Johnson will still be marmite to most voters.

[thecatfromjapan]

His election in London was a kind of precursor to Brexit, BigChoc.

A lot of his votes came from the 'donuts': people who live in the outer areas of Lindon and are quite angry.

The outer areas used to attract people who didn't like immigrants - to put it utterly bluntly. Though many would dress it up as 'not liking crime' or whatever.

And then, of course, gentrification was happening, and those areas came under pressure of gentrification - and I don't think a lot of the donuts liked that, either - even if it meant their house prices going up.

I reckon there's a real cross-over between quite a few of the Brexit yob day-trippers and the Boris Mayor voters.

One of the first Brexit tons attested was a middle aged restaurant owner from Upminster.

I bet he voted for Boris as Mayor. And there he was, running around punching people in a Brexit riot, as though the sweet Spring of youth had come again for him.

[TheMShip]

Do the MPs vote tonight on the timetabling?

[squid4]

In fact, when May first started her campaign, everyone was very sure the repeating simple phrases and avoiding confrontation thing would work, and she had those cummings-like advisers didn't she, who everyone said were invincible and owned the press. And until basically the DAY of the election the talk was only of HOW big a majority she would have. 100+ seats, people were saying.
She was a bit shit for sure (because the tories have nothing to offer!) but she certainly didn't do anything as stupidly self destructive as Johnson has been doing.

[squid4]

plus (sorry I'll shut up and go to bed now) I certainly didn't know any despairing soft tories in 2017 saying "you know what mate, I think I'm actually going to vote for corbyn, this is such a shit show".
Hearing a lot of that now!
The polls appear to move in the opposite direction to what I actually am hearing... I know everyone has their own bubble

[tobee]

Thinking back to referendum results night, there were large areas that were traditionally Tory who voted remain. They have been largely ignored. People focus on Labour leave areas still but you don't hear about the Tory remain areas. Have they converted to being neo leavers who think Johnson is a nailed on winner? Or is there some hope?

[thecatfromjapan]

No!

Keep going Squid.

It's brilliant - and what we need to hear.

Despair is the enemy of action.

[thecatfromjapan]

Cotswolds must be very pissed off. Lots of London areas.

The trick is targeting them in FPTP without splitting the vote between LD and Labour.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Repeating 3 or 4 word slogans don't work for someone robotic like May

They do work with showman types like Trump or BJ or Farage, who can use them to whip up a crowd

[Peregrina]

People now seem to forget that May was really popular at first. That first Tory Conference in 2016 with Citizens of Nowhere, they absolutely lapped up. She went and blew it with her demetia tax. Sadly, the whole issue of social care sadly needs re-examination, but throwing it into an election campaign was not the way to do it.

I am now hearing Leavers say they don't want to talk about Brexit....While Remainers are more than happy to get out there on the streets to protest. But it all depends on how the votes fall with an election.

[BigChocFrenzy]

doesn't

[RedToothBrush]

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3723846-Westminstenders-Another-day-of-fear-and-toil?watched=1

New thread

[squid4]

Preselected crowds maybe.

Did you see the recent videos of what happened when Johnson tried to go to Doncaster and Rotherham?

[thecatfromjapan]

Squid has a point though.

Johnson's campaign started with him going out and about.

That ended very quickly.

I think it's part of why the crazy-ass behaviour in Parliament has gone up several notches.

[thecatfromjapan]

And London. The hospital.

And he was travelling in a car with a big police escort during the coup.

No cuddly Johnson on the tube for him.

(I've sat with Sadiq and Ken Clarke on the tube. Didn't say anything - obviously. But I kind of willed a smile of recognition.)

[Ellie56]

I think Squid has a point too. Even I have come round to thinking voting for Corbyn would be the better option and I've never voted Labour in my life.

Trouble is I live in a safe (ERG) Tory seat, so can't see her getting ousted unless there's a huge amount of spectacular tactical voting.

[fedup21]

Trouble is I live in a safe (ERG) Tory seat, so can't see her getting ousted unless there's a huge amount of spectacular tactical voting

Same here. Our voting system is pretty broken-I live in an area comprising a large number of retired Mail readers who’d vote in a cardboard box if it was blue, so a referendum is the only way you’ll get a true idea of what the public actually want.

[Dongdingdong]

But mayor of London could be seen as an almost ceremonial role, less at stake

The mayor of London role is way more important than ceremonial. They have a lot of power.

[Dongdingdong]

I think Squid has a point too. Even I have come round to thinking voting for Corbyn would be the better option and I've never voted Labour in my life.

I think so too. There’s just one small hitch: I have more chance of winning the Euromillions this week than Corbyn going for a VONC - and I haven’t even bought a ticket.

[JustAnotherPoster00]

There’s just one small hitch: I have more chance of winning the Euromillions this week than Corbyn going for a VONC

Blame the LibDems for that

[borntobequiet]

The Cotswolds are indeed pretty pissed off, judging by the hordes of marchers using the Cotswold Line last Sat. Normally one or two people get off at the little rural stations, on Saturday evening it was 20 or 30 at each one, all with badges, berets, banners, disappearing into the autumn dusk (it was really rather poetic).

[CrunchyCarrot]

I know I'm not the only Tolkien fan here @TheMShip

dusts off copy of LOTR

I see Farage as Smeagol - greedily trying to snatch the Ring (Brexit) from Frodo (Boris) and succeeding right at the end only to fall into the volcano of Mt Doom and saving everyone.

[BlaueLagune]

there were large areas that were traditionally Tory who voted remain

Like where I live, although it was a very narrow remain majority. Lots of affluent elderly people in the rural areas voting leave I assume. My MP voted three times against May's deal but loves BJ's deal. Nothing to do with BJ being male, I am sure. Or maybe he realised that if he'd voted for May's deal we'd have left on time.

[JeSuisPoulet]

OK, I won't pretend I've managed to catch up!
I hear German software has estimated the crowd for the PV march was 2.2mil. I hope they can use the same on the previous marches.
Had a terrible week with a tradesman getting very aggressive and doing v shonky work which has knocked me for six tbh, plus we move over the next few days and get the puppy. So it's a little hectic! Guess this is a very late PMK!