Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

Sorry. What does triggering yellowhammer actually mean? Can’t find it anywhere in the news.

This WA brings economic advantages to NI and is miles better than the utter catastrophe No Deal would be,
both economically and to the GFA / peace

However, we must wait and see the Unionist / loyalist reaction to the political implications,
to the fact that NI has been moved permanently closer to Ireland without Unionists being able to vote to change that
(since Nationalists will always vote to keep things this way)

imo, it's logical & sensible for a UK govt to cooperate with Ireland more and to move gradually towards a united Ireland
BUT
that should have been carefully planned
NOT
just BJ dumping the DUP at the last minute and switching to what "No UK PM could ever agree to"

This change to NI shouldn't be just an "unimportant" side effect / collateral damage to a hurried & chaotic Brexit
NI deserves more consideration & respect than that

Ni Unionists must be alarmed & feeling very insecure, having seen a UK PM & party could so blatantly dump them for political advantage, only weeks after vowing eternal support

Pmk - would there be any chance of labour removing the whip from anyone in the amendments to the wa2 bill? I don’t see how these mp should be allowed to call themselves labour if they won’t vote for workers rights - I understand their brexit views could Be and are different but surely this is the purpose of the party???

@Dusty01 Operation Yellowhammer is the name of the govt's plans in the event of no-deal. I guess triggering it means being on alert ready to act, i.e. admitting no-deal now very possible and imminent. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Yellowhammer

If the FT and other analysts are correct, the WA will pass, so no roadblock

However, it was always likely we would need an extension to do so

Verhofstadt stated that The EP will not debate approving the WA until the HoC has approved it

• but by that time the EP has probably had its last session on 23 October,before they recess

Logistically, it's time-consuming to bring back 751 MEPs from 1000s of km away, around the EU, plus about 1200 staff
Takes much longer than e.g. recalling the HoC.

Although the EU may not grant an extension to 31 Jan as the Benn Act requests,
it looks certain they'd allow a short technical extension, if needed to complete approval of the WA by all sides
No reason not to

@yellowallpaper I live in NI and run a business here. The uncertainty is killing us. Many businesses locally reporting quietest autumn in years. I personally don’t want an extension and PV as that will prolong the agony and uncertainty, many businesses will go to the wall.
For us, if we must leave, the whole of the UK staying in the customs union is the ideal scenario. I hope that is what the house decides upon this week.
Obviously it would have been better for all of us here if remain had won but we are where we are. I don’t believe revoke will solve things either at this point.
I’d say most sensible people in NI share these views. The DUP will never say they were wrong in advocating leave in the first place, which is sad. There are certain sections of the community who vote for and believe whatever they are told.
The DUP advocated leave in the first place because they wanted to get further away from the “clutches” of ROI and they also distrust the EU. Their ideal scenario is No Deal, this short sighted position has ironically lead them to be potentially much, much closer to ROI/EU than the rest of the UK. Unfortunately, they fear a united ireland much more than they fear economic ruin.
Anecdotally many ordinary Protestants now saying that the DUP should have voted for TM’s Deal when they had the chance. This current deal scares them.

In fairness to the conviction politicians out there ( Caroline Flint not being one of the above) I can understand how difficult this is:

'Delivering Democracy' v known economic hardship
Ensuring workers rights v destroying conservatives permanently
Fear of Corbyn's politics v doing the right thing for the country.
The Union v

For me,

Pressed send too soon. Dog's fault.

The Union v 'delivering democracy'

For me, only a few have come out of this with any real dignity & consistency
Starmer, Clarke, Grieve.

The big issue here chocfrenzy and one that is completely being ignored is that a lot of people in ROI don't want a United Ireland neither do most nationalist in NI. Most people were happy with the status quo and the relative peace that the GFA brought. I think most unionst and some English people believe that the Irish government are using brexit as some cunning plan to gain a United Ireland but that couldn't be further from the truth. All the Irish government want is to protect the open border for the sake of people and businesses that cross it several times a day. They know that a referendum for a United Ireland would fail, nobody in Ireland wants a return to violence that the Troubles brought.
www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/brexit-a-day-in-the-life-of-an-irish-border-crossing-1.4040102?fbclid=IwAR0ZVl49DT3YjAnGtvff9myAtt6HnbKmZ0Gae1o6PfLYEmUvAyDcvE9uY80

Linwin "the whole of the UK staying in the customs union" would definitely be my preferred option,
but that's basically going back to May's deal (which, at the 3rd attempt, I wanted to pass)

My hope of amendments is that the level playing field clauses can be moved back from the PD, to make them legally binding,
also to prevent No Deal after 2020

However, imo few MPs other than the 11 sitting NI ones have any wish to amend the NI part of the agreement

A major reason for it was probably to avoid the US Congress blocking a possible US FTA, so the ERG would never agree

Morning it’s poll time. Firstly the Panelbase one from what two threads ago ???

Con 36%
Lab. 27%
Lib. 17%
BXP. 11%

^All the usual suspects excluded don’t know/won’t say/please stop asking etc. Anyways that takes an original sample of 1008 respondents down to 714 ‘likely’ voters. Of this 55% are male.

If we put back in the undecideds we get,

Con. 25%
Lab 19%
Lib. 12%
BXP 8%
OTH 9%
UND 27%.

Panelbase are quite mean with their data sheets so I can’t really give much info on the 27% other than 12% are don’t knows and of the 12% 66% are female.

A six or 9 point lead is absolutely nothing in the scheme of things. I had a look at some of the data sheets of Theresa May in her pomp of April 2017 and Johnson looks decidedly weak in comparison to her. Corbyn looks to be on similar figures. What should concern Labour is that our friends the ‘don’t knows’ are less in some polls than back then so less undecideds are up for grabs.

Voila Opinion polls in Ireland consistently show that about ⅔ of voters would support a United Ireland if NI vote for it

That is probably many years in the future, even after this Brexshit, but there is an obvious advantage of NI gradually moving closer to Ireland,
building common istitutions and processes,

rather than a sudden abrupt shock when the demographics change sufficiently for NI to vote to reunite.

Will amendments definitely be allowed ?

I read that amendments will be allowed, under HoC rules, because of what happened on Saturday,
but I'm not sure why !
< goes off to Google >

Opinium don’t have their data tables up yet will take peak when they do.

Dennis Skinner abstained at MV3 but says he will vote against Johnson's deal... think that is the first switcher the other way

I think this is important - he's very much a Lexiter, but at the same time, I think he's a man with integrity.

Amendments are allowed now I think because of the sequencing??

Government were trying to get a ‘blind’ approval now the T&C’s are going to be inspected.

Thanks Bigchoc, I hope the CU and LPF get enough support. I don't think the numbers are there for a second referendum.

Ian Dunt on twitter talking about possible amendments:

This is hopefully what we'll see over next few days: amendments which peel off support, forcing govt to oppose things it promised it would support, which have a chance at a majority.

One is to put LPF back into WA - which should force lab rebels back into the fold if government won't accept it.

I live in NI and run a business here. The uncertainty is killing us. Many businesses locally reporting quietest autumn in years. I personally don’t want an extension and PV as that will prolong the agony and uncertainty, many businesses will go to the wall. to you

This whole Brexit business was started to solve a Tory party civil war

and it looks like the Tories will unite to pass this WA, when they wouldn't agree on May's WA
- because the right wing have won overwhelmingly and vanquished the One Nation Conservatives

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-boris-johnson-would-have-rejected-his-deal-if-theresa-may-achieved-it-11839137

... had Theresa May produced Boris Johnson's deal, word for word....
it would still have been soundly rejected in parliament
....
The fight against Mrs May's deal was as much about her as about its contents.
Her opponents voted against it repeatedly because they wished to remove her and wagered that that was the best way.
.......
The climax of Mrs May's premiership was thus just another battle in the endless Conservative party civil war

• a war which though caught and centred in the boggy marshlands of Brexit, extends far beyond it:

a battle about what British conservatism is and what it should become.
But there is now a clear victor in that battle.
.....
The Brexiteers and, to be frank, the right of the Conservative Party, has secured control at last.

They have the leader they want.
A leader they like - not one they have merely tolerated.

Many of them have ascended to positions of influence, power and prestige.
.....
Their victory is so complete, that there is even total asymmetry of warfare:

the remaining Tory moderates, those like Theresa May who were expelled from power, or like Nicholas Soames who were expelled from the party,
traipse into the lobbies with those who vanquished them,
showing a loyalty to Mr Johnson which he and his best supporters never reciprocated.

The Tories look set for a massive win, which would give them a 5-year term to do as they want on Brexit

@BigChocFrenzy I don’t know why people assume this. Surely we don’t still trust the polls?

the remaining Tory moderates, those like Theresa May who were expelled from power, or like Nicholas Soames who were expelled from the party,traipse into the lobbies with those who vanquished them, showing a loyalty to Mr Johnson which he and his best supporters never reciprocated How true.

Could the EU grant extension but require us to have a second referendum??? Totally clutching at straws.... can't face the thought that Johnson's deal, even worse than May's will be the one that gets passed.

The further South you go the less desire there is. In theory everyone would say they love the idea UI but economically and practically no. I don't think the question has even come up for a very long time and now it has only materialised due to Brexit. I'm not saying it won't happen but it won't happen because of Brexit and definitely not if there is a risk of violence. I also believe that if an agreement that works for NI, Ireland and keeps unionist is found then any talks of a UI vote will diminish.