Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

[Voila212]

Keeps unionist happy

[Driedlimes]

@BigChocFrenzy
On that basis the middle ground is open for occupation & yet no one is gaining real traction there ( as in GE winning traction).

Were the Labour Party to move back in that direction it would be a different story.

[BigChocFrenzy]

 Tory GE win is not 100% certain, but it looks by far the most likely option

The EU extending in the hope of a Labour victory - which iirc was what I was referring to - would be taking a great gamble
and risking No Deal

However, it is grotesque to have a zombie govt which cannot pass bills, except probably the WA later

So once the WA has passed fully, I would expect Corbyn to agree to a GE

It just depends on WA timing - there is not much time to call a GE to be held by 12 December
and after this date, the next one that is logistically feasible is mid-February

[RosiePosiePuddle]

I"ve missed this, but why did BJ not put his deal to a vote yesterday? Was he sure that it wouldn't pass? It just seems odd given that Letwin said he would vote for it after his amendment passed. Or was it BJ looking for more inflammatory MSM headlines this morning against HoC??

The way I see it (please correct me if wrong), the letwin amendment was to rule out no deal. Boris Johnson needed the ERG on side to get the WA voted for. However, they really want no deal and once they realised that no deal couldn't "accidentally" happen, then they would have refused to vote for it. I am assuming in their eyes, an extension is better in which no deal could be allowed happen, than the WA in which it might not or they would have to wait over a year for.

I wonder whether Boris Johnson was actually intending for the deal to happen or was wanting the same as the ERG, ie no deal. Letwin obviously didn't trust him and was proved right. If no deal was not the intention, surely the vote would still have gone ahead. But Johnson at least wants to appear as if wanting a deal. Who knows what the fuck is actually going on though in his head?

[BigChocFrenzy]

Voila I expect UI would not be for 30 or 40 years.
However, it is important that in the meantime both govts encourage more cross-border ties, moving even to an unofficial UI over the decades, to avoid abrupt changes & shocks

The EU NI Peace taskforce will be continuing to work on this, too.

Demographics & changing voting preferences indicate that eventually NI would vote for it,
in which case it would be v difficult for Ireland to vote not to accept them

[OhLookHeKickedTheBall]

Nice to see DC2s school prepping them for no deal brexit. Is it wrong I shouted Turnip when I read this?

[PanemEtCircenses]

The big issue here chocfrenzy and one that is completely being ignored is that a lot of people in ROI don't want a United Ireland neither do most nationalist in NI.

This is why it was the EU referendum result was a gift to Sinn Fein. They needed various factors to come into play for a UI, and Brexit - particularly risk of no deal - caused most of them to loom up immediately, rather than remain on the very far horizon.

Most people were happy with the status quo and the relative peace that the GFA brought.

Yes and still are. But the polls show that in a no-deal or hard Brexit scenario people fear for the GFA and therefore whilst their first choice remains GFA + no Brexit/soft Brexit, if they’re lumbered with a hard Brexit then there is a narrow majority for UI. Including plenty of centrist unionists.

I think most unionst and some English people believe that the Irish government are using brexit as some cunning plan to gain a United Ireland but that couldn't be further from the truth.

Entirely agree with you.
UI is almost the last thing Varadkar and co want. But the thing they want less is no deal and them having to protect the Single Market by imposing border checks, the ensuing violence, etc. Plus, if all that happens they’ll suffer for it in next election (and Sinn Fein may do very well).

[ArseDarkly]

So strange listening to the Farage show on LBC. First hour ranting about the shocking undemocratic behaviour of parliament to frustrate the deal and the second hour ranting about the deal being unacceptable and how little time mp's had been given to scrutinise it

[ListeningQuietly]

Footsore, rather hoarse Place Mark.

Everybody we spoke to on the march yesterday - including random strangers of all party hues - was VERY fed up with Corbyn's fence sitting
The Tories created the mess
but Labour are studiously not getting us out of it.

[Basilpots]

Matt Forde nailed when he said Brexit is like saying I want a pet. It must bark, it has to have feathers and it must be a cat.

[Icantreachthepretzels]

So I'm up and recovered from the march (and having to read an entire thread in a couple of hours) now.

I joined the march just by the Ritz so I missed the first half of it and so had no real idea how big it was - in March I hadn't set off by half 2 and never in made it to Trafalgar square before I had to leave to get my train - whereas this time by half 2 I was down Whitehall and watching the screens so I was worried it was much smaller. BUT they announced that there were a million people on the march part way through the speakers ... so I was just at the front because I cheated

Breaking off from the speakers to go live to the HOC and waiting in the rain with 100s of thousands of other people for the results of the Letwin amendment - and the cheers that broke out when we heard the numbers - is an experience that will stay with me forever. It felt like a real moment in history.

If Keir Starmer did not realise he is supposed to be our next PM before he stepped foot on that stage, following the Letwin vote, then he certainly left that stage knowing it. The look on his face when he heard the yells and cheers for him! He got by far the biggest cheer of everyone - even bigger than Patrick Stewart's - and the cheering didn't stop the whole time he was speaking. It was like Beatle Mania - and he was clearly taken aback and moved by it... but loved it as well!

Most people will probably have seen the placard with the picture of Boris and his shadow as a bell end - because it was shown on the large screens so many times - but there was a placard by me that was both a thing of hilarious beauty and - at the same time - the most repulsive thing I have ever seen. I couldn't stop staring. It said 'Fuck off Boris' but the letters were little naked Borises making the letter shapes with his little naked body. The drawing was really good - It was a beautiful rendering of something completely disgusting.

It was an amazing day and an amazing feeling to be part of that crowd - and as always it was good natured and peaceful, people had their children and their dogs there, the sun shone most of the time and it just proved that the strength of feeling for remain and for the EU is not waning. We're not getting bored and we're not going away.

...and then for the bad news. On the train back me, my mum and the 76 year old lady sat opposite us were accosted by a bald headed, middle aged man in a football shirt. He swaggered up to us- stopped at our table, stared down and demanded to know if we'd been at Westminster and then demanded 'in or out?' When we said we were remain supporters he said (in an aggressive tone - not an interested or curious one) 'can I ask why?'
I wasn't taking this shit so I just said 'can I ask why you chose three women to come and start talking to?' (the train was packed with returning marchers - he'd walked straight past a man with a bollocks to brexit sticker to yell at talk to us. Later on a man with a huge pro EU banner came and sat directly opposite this football guy's seat - not a peep. But he starts on three women ... wasn't putting up with that for a second)
He told me he was 'just passing by' and wanted a conversation ... we said we were tired and didn't want a conversation. He didn't accept that and kept asking why we voted remain - I asked why he voted leave: 'to get my country back.'
My mum pointed out that she was 62, this was her country and no one could take it from her but he just repeated 'to get my country back.' (still really aggressive tone) I asked 'what does that mean?'
'immigration'
'oh so you're a racist.' (I know you'll probably all say I shouldn't have sad it - but the fact that he had chose three women as an easier target to try and bully was really pissing me off and I wasn't having it. And he is a racist if that was his reason for voting - and we should be able to call a racist a racist, especially if they start the conversation uninvited and then refuse to end it when they're told the conversation isn't welcome.)
He didn't like that. My mum told me to stop engaging, because she was getting quite worried he might hit me (I wasn't. I'd have had him arrested. I was gutted he never did any of this when the guard was around so I could have him kicked off the train). He said political debate was a two way street and we needed to talk. I told him we were just people on a train home and we did not owe him a conversation or an explanation of our viewpoint. The other woman said to him 'look we're not going to change each other's minds so why don't we just stop?'
So instead of 'passing by' which is what he was supposed to be doing, he sat down in the empty seat across the aisle from me and demanded he get to say his piece. I had had my back turned to him at my mum's behest but I turned back to say 'you've stolen my future from me - there's nothing you can say I want to hear, sir,' and then turned away again.
He started trying to tel me how he had moved up north from London - I turned back to say 'I'm not interested in hearing your life story, sir' (the fact that he wouldn't take 'no we're not talking to you' for an answer was really riling me. I wanted him to know I wasn't fucking scared of him but I wasn't going to listen to him either. We'd said 'no.') I then leaned over to look at my mums phone screen and we started loudly discussing the news. The lady studiously ate her belated lunch and didn't look at him - and he sat in the seat getting more and more wound up 'are you listening to me? You're not listening to me. Oh nobody's listening to me. Is that it?' He then started telling the couple also sat at the table that 'he would say his piece.' ... they declined to comment.
After about 5 mins of sitting there alternatively yelling at us or telling the couple how awful we were whilst none of us interacted with him or looked at him, he then got up and went into the vestibule - but then came straight back in (no way he'd had time to go to the toilet - so he wasn't ever 'just passing by' he was- as I always suspected just getting up to start aggro with three women he thought he could intimidate.)
He then stood right next to my seat and slightly behind it so he was towering above me and start yelling at us and jabbing is fingers: we were losers, we were traitors, we were what was wrong with this country, we needed to find another cause. We were going to lose another vote tonight (bless him he didn't know about Letwin) Blah blah blah on and on ... we still didn't look at him, but we did occasionally snicker.
And eventually he had to give up on that too - so defeated he yelled 'Go Boris' and went to sit back down.

He came back a while later, this time he was passing by, and yelled more abuse at us as he walked passed - had we lost that vote yet? (no sir - you already lost several hours ago) traitors blah blah blah. Went to the toilet - came back more of the same, he put his hands on the table and leaned right over us all and started yelling about how his father had flown Lancaster bombers in the war (I doubt that) and we were a fucking disgrace. So I got my phone out and asked my mum loudly to look up the number for the transport police because I was going to call them. He scurried off, then - but not without yelling over his shoulder that the problem with us was 'we didn't live in the real world' (I mean what the fuck does that even mean? It's not even like he could assume we were rich because our train tickets were first class - we were in cattle class same as him.)

He got off at Doncaster (of course he fucking did) but on the way passed hurled some more abuse our way. Losers, traitors ... at least he didn't call us Nazis, I suppose.

What. A. Twat.
I really hope he went home, put the news on and discovered the W.A and been pulled and Boris was sending the letter ... and realised we already knew that and we're laughing at him the whole way home.

And he is why we shouldn't just accept this dreadful W.A and let them have their brexit. Because it isn't just the politicians who have acted appallingly, and stopping brexit is therefore unfair on all the good people who voted leave. They're not good people. They are people who think it's alright to hurl abuse and attempt to intimidate members of the public who disagree with them. They're aggressive misogynists. They're racists. and brexit is the way they want to impose supremacy of their values on the rest of us - so they can harass and abuse strangers in public places until people who disagree with them are too afraid to go out. .
We have to win this. Because if these people win, then the future of our country is unthinkable.

But - despite the way it ended - yesterday was a really great day that I will never forget. I'm so glad to have been there - and thank you to everyone else who marched along with me.

[Oakenbeach]

The way I see it (please correct me if wrong), the letwin amendment was to rule out no deal. Boris Johnson needed the ERG on side to get the WA voted for. However, they really want no deal and once they realised that no deal couldn't "accidentally" happen, then they would have refused to vote for it.

I think the vote was pulled in order to pressurise Tory waverers from supporting it - the tactic didn’t work. Only a very small number of ERG fanatics actively prefer a no-deal to any deal, and those that do see the deal as a reasonable compromise. I fully expect them to vote it through next week.

[DarkAtEndOfUk]

Could the EU grant extension but require us to have a second referendum??? Totally clutching at straws.... can't face the thought that Johnson's deal, even worse than May's will be the one that gets passed. sad

Me neither, but that's what's going to happen. A second referendum is the right thing to do, but this is "Great" Britain. They'll call a GE instead, and under our rigged and covertly corrupt system, the Tories will win. At least Remainers have the right to ask the EU for help. That utter scum asking the EU for help in his letter, when he's orchestrated leaving... I really don't have words to express my contempt for him or the culture he supports.

I can understand the heckling of MPs. I don't condone violence, or heckling of 12 year olds. However the sheer frustration of living in a totally corrupt system which still dares to call itself a democracy, when it is very clearly a class-based exploitative and abusive oligarchy with no interest in listening to its people is something I share absolutely with Brexiteers.

[Voila212]

I agree with you chocfrenzy a UI is more possible in 30/40 years but I also agree with Panem if this Brexit deal is a disaster or a No deal happens then that could definitely speed up the process. It's amazing how Brexit has done more towards the discussion of a UI vote then Sinn fein ever could.

[ListeningQuietly]

(((((Pretzels))))))
Next time, film him so that you can send the footage to the police. They would act on it.

[DarkAtEndOfUk]

That point about misogyny being linked to Brexit is valid, too. It is, and Britain outside the EU will be misogynistic as all hell. Legally. Men are allowed to act on their frustrations, and women have to smile about both them and the men.

[TheElementsSong]

Well done pretezls 👏

[Basilpots]

Jesus wept Icant

Not sure what to say to all that !!

[ArseDarkly]

Everybody we spoke to on the march yesterday - including random strangers of all party hues - was VERY fed up with Corbyn's fence sitting
The Tories created the mess
but Labour are studiously not getting us out of it.

So if the Tories, who created the mess and are in Government (sort of) haven't been able to get us out of the mess to anyone's satisfaction, how are Labour supposed to?

[NoWordForFluffy]

Bloody hell, pretzels. You did really well there, good on you. What an idiot though.

[PanemEtCircenses]

Pretzels so sorry to hear about that. I agree with filming if it happens to you again, if it feels safe to do so.

[BigChocFrenzy]

pretzels 💐
That was a sour end to an amazing day, but don't dwell on that mouth-breather
What is important is what you achieved all day yesterday,
not some ignorant man trying to bully women - which is sadly a daily occurrence

[ListeningQuietly]

ArseDarkly
A clear policy on Brexit would be a start.

Corbyn had planned to be in Liverpool yesterday - to avoid having to face a million angry people.
He wants to leave even though he knows it would most damage Labour supporters.
That is an indefensible stance
so he hides
and the Tories are not properly held to account.

A good opposition leader would have articulated why Brexit will most damage the areas that voted for it
and be heading to win an election by now.

[Icantreachthepretzels]

Thanks for all the emojis - But I was surprised how unafraid i was. I wasn't even really angry I was just completely unwilling to take his shit for even a minute.
He was a pathetic, ridiculous and angry little man and the fact that he selected himself an easy target to bully and then failed to intimidate us only made him more angry - and more ridiculous.
I'd feel sorry for him for being so pathetic and unhappy - but he doesn't deserve it, so he can just have my cold contempt instead.

But I am now kicking myself that I didn't think to film it

[TheMShip]

pretzels that's just... Wow. I don't even know what to say. I'm amazed how well you handled that.