Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

.

Despite all the excitement, an FT analysis after the vote:

BJ may have a majority of 5 for his WA, 320 votes to 315

Paul Brand on twitter
BREAKING: @Keir_Starmer confirms that an amendment will be brought next week calling for a referendum on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal and Labour will back it #Marr

Weary pmk

BREAKING: @Keir_Starmer confirms that an amendment will be brought next week calling for a referendum on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal and Labour will back it #Marr

Good.

Referendum doesn't have majority support in parliament. Move by Starmer is more to try and stop votes haemorrhaging to LDs.

Move comes far too late to get real momentum behind it. And Independent Conservatives have already declared they will support deal and leaving now.

Optics.

Keir Starmer reveals Labour will take three-pronged approach to amendments to Brexit legislation next week

• Backing a second referendum amendment tabled by backbenchers

• Customs Union amendment

• Closing 'trapdoor to no-deal' at end of transition

Gove still guaranteeing that we will leave on 31 October.

Bruno Waterfield @BrunoBrussels
^European ambassadors met for all on the15 minutes this morning and did not discuss a new Brexit delay
It is full on ratification on the EU side mirroring the government’s push to get the deal across the line^

Tusk has said his consultations will take a “few days” what that means that the EU will wait and see how the Commons vote on Tues before any decisions on extension

There are various options

^Meanwhile: the deal goes to the European Parliament on Monday morning so that the MEPs can take a decision on Thurs
Verhofstadt’s Brexit committee will meet tomorrow afternoon^

On extension:
If the Commons procedures are positive but lengthy to get it done the EU can agree a shorter technical extension
This can be done via a written procedure but still needing unanimous agreement of all EU27

A longer political extension such as the delay until Feb 2020 in the Benn Act will need another summit - as early as 27/28 October if the wheels come off in the Commons
The main political question would be the conditions set for Britain as the terms of another long extension

Technical extension is the likely outcome IMO.

PMK.

bellinisurge
I just love that kitten picture, thanks.
Roll on the time when I can get my own (currently negotiating for a couple of rescue cats), one of whom looks like yours.
Get cats, abandon MN, job sorted!

pmk

PMK

Thank you all

I'm guessing BoZo has to "accept" an extension though...so will he just not?

Went out last night and missed it all, woke with a hangover and am now catching up. Possibly the worst.combination.ever!

Placemarking in need of coffee. Did anyone go on the march yesterday who can share what it was like?

Steven Swinford@steven_swinford
Michael Gove announces he is triggering Operation Yellowhammer and will hold a no-deal Cabinet committee

He tells @sophyridge

'We are triggering Operation Yellowhammer

'The risk of leaving without a deal has increased because we cannot guarantee EU will grant an extension'

Lots of March reports on this thread
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3712877-Peoples-Vote-March-Oct-19th?watched=1&msgid=90951182#prettyPhoto

I wouldn’t be surprised if the deal gets through next week. I wonder if the focus will be on tying the PM’s hands in the transition negotiations so he can’t delay on that. eg a Benn Act approach requiring an extension request if no deal at the end of the transition period.

More tedious theatre, from a bloke who looks like he has a serious substance abuse problem.

Poulet - I think the way the law Benn Bill is worded, he has to just accept the extension he has "asked" for under duress which is until 31 January 2020. If the EU comes back with a different extension then Parliament has 2 days to accept or decline it.

Sunday pmk.

You know when you get stuck behind two juggernauts on a two lane road, and it's alternately one slightly in front, then they other in front, then the first one again, as an entire A-road of traffic for miles builds up behind them ?

That's where we are now. Only it's the whole fucking country stuck behind the juggernauts of Remain and Leave. Presumably, somewhere - a few miles and three counties back - overtaking looked like a good idea. But here we are, with an entire country unable to get past, and it shows no signs of changing.

If you like your analogies useful then if you can't get past the blockage, maybe it's time for the following traffic to consider a different route ? At the first possible turn off ?

Another alternative would be to blast the road wider. But I'm not so sure that level of crude infrastructure remodelling translates to anything peaceful.

I'll be back tomorrow with another helpful metaphor