Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

[DGRossetti]

p.s. two juggernauts - neither able to fully overtake ?

[DGRossetti]

And one for people who feel marginalised ....

[Motheroffourdragons]

As is this...

Alex Wickham
@alexwickham
·
2m
This is now the main problem for No10. Last week it looked like Gloria De Piero could back their deal. Now she is backing a customs union amendment
Quote Tweet

Gloria De Piero
@GloriaDePiero
· 3m
And a customs union amendment is what I’ll be working for. It is the option that was 3 votes short of passing in Parliament. I am convinced we can get majority support for it. It would enable us to stay true to the Labour manifesto every Labour MP was elected on twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1185851097707110400…

[fedup21]

If the EU comes back with a different extension then Parliament has 2 days to accept or decline it.

I hadn’t thought of that. What if the EU offer 6 months or 2 years?!

I fee quite depressed now. All the people who voted against the gov and got the Letwin amendment through seem to be saying they’ll vote BJ’s deal through now-it sounds like he’s won .

[Sostenueto]

PMK

[DGRossetti]

Michael Gove announces he is triggering Operation Yellowhammer and will hold a no-deal Cabinet committee

Vaguely sensible on the one hand. But now risks the danger of some people realising how flimsy they all are.

Can't help but remember next week is not this week ... the more time - and detail of Boris deal - passes, the less likely you can assume MPs will vote as indicated previously.

[NoWordForFluffy]

So they're going for a CU amendment, but not the LPF amendment? Strange; I'd think they'd want LPF equally as much.

[DGRossetti]

What is it with double barrelled posh twats using their kids for clickbait ? Is JRM related to JSG ?

[yellowallpaper]

Does anyone know if the view of the DUP represents the view of the majority in NI? I know they won the election but in a first past the post system, it not always a majority. I saw a farmer from NI who wants a deal of any sort to go forward just to end the uncertainty which is killing his business. The DUP are very hard line is seems to me and nothing will be right for them. Do they actually want to Remain and all this is just a political games? Irish politics is very complicated.

[DGRossetti]

This is now the main problem for No10. Last week it looked like Gloria De Piero could back their deal. Now she is backing a customs union amendment

I was typing my comment at 10:45:12 when that was posted

That's been Brexits existential problem since day one. The moment you start digging into the detail, someone will take umbrage.

[ClashCityRocker]

What's the LBF amendment?

Would a customs union fly? It was the option that had most support in the indicative votes, wasn't it?

[GeistohneGrenzen]

.

[fedup21]

Have all of the MPs seen the detail in the WA?

When will an economic impact study of it be shared?

[NoWordForFluffy]

Level playing field, Crash. So workers' rights and environmental protection etc.

[ClashCityRocker]

Thanks. That makes sense. Presumably they could vote for both amendments?

[Yewtown]

Yellow the DUP represent around 35% of the electorate. The majority of Northern Irish people want a deal and were relatively ok with TM's deal. Having said that a majority voted to remain and that would still be the case. I think that the DUP have now realised that their leave position has been a disaster as it makes Irish unity more likely. This would be a total anathema for them and their supporters so I think they will do everything they can to backtrack. The other main Unionist party is now firmly in the remain camp as they can see this deal will give Irish Nationalists a green light for a border poll.

[DrBlackbird]

I"ve missed this, but why did BJ not put his deal to a vote yesterday? Was he sure that it wouldn't pass? It just seems odd given that Letwin said he would vote for it after his amendment passed. Or was it BJ looking for more inflammatory MSM headlines this morning against HoC??

[derxa]

I wouldn’t be surprised if the deal gets through next week. I would be surprised if it did.
BREAKING: Three-and-a-half years, two extensions, seven defections, 21 deselections, three prime ministers, countless amendments, two prorogations, one Supreme Court judgement, 66 million Brits losing the will to live and we’re still at square one.
And this
That's where we are now. Only it's the whole fucking country stuck behind the juggernauts of Remain and Leave. Presumably, somewhere - a few miles and three counties back - overtaking looked like a good idea. But here we are, with an entire country unable to get past, and it shows no signs of changing.

[Motheroffourdragons]

The CU would certainly help with NI though, wouldn't it? Whereas LPF is more subtle I think.

But yes I am guessing they could have and support amendments for both.

[lonelyplanetmum]

And perhaps if it was the right thing to do ( and this were the right time) the benefits would be more transparent and consensus would be reached more easily.

[Lisette1940]

Pmk

[lonelyplanetmum]

In link to HIGNIFY obvs.

[lonelyplanetmum]

Oh god Gove isn't triggering Yellowhammer to do that emergency legislation in a national crisis thing is he?

[motherofdoodles]

@RedToothBrush thank you as always.

[ClashCityRocker]

I'd be more than happy with a customs union and level playing field.