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Brexit

Westminstenders: "He's in trouble". No he's not.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2019 00:48

All day I've seen nothing but comments and tweets about he Johnson is in trouble and he's losing it.

They are wrong. He's far from done.

Take a step through the Looking Glass and the world looks different.

Those tweeting and reporting all care about events and are following closely. They are unrepresentative of the population as a whole who don't give two shiny shits.

And so we have the Trump dynamic.

The Liberal elite of broadcasters and journalists who are only seeing through the lens of their own judgement, not from the repackaged marketing.

Instead they are unwittingly publishing the images and slogans in the format Johnson wants and enter the minds of the public as planned.

The media are out of step with perceptions. And that's worrying. They don't see what's coming.

Johnson will have an election at some point. With the Tory party cleansed of moderates it is the Brexit Party one way or another, whether it be by takeover or coalition. And its riding high in the polling.

Even though even his brother has abandoned him, the future looks positive for Johnson as his opponents have a complete lack of self awareness and no understanding of the opposition they are taking on; they are campaigning in a way that plays into the hands of Johnson.

Despite his lack of majority and apparently absence of plan or speech notes, the biggest mistake you can make now is to write off Johnson.

You do so at your own peril.

Pay close attention to how authoritarians work and what's already happened in the US. We are on course to repeat it.

OP posts:
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BirdandSparrow · 06/09/2019 00:56

Argh! PMK from this Brit in Spain.

GeorginaPilot · 06/09/2019 00:58

Bring it on. It’s what the majority want.

DeRigueurMortis · 06/09/2019 01:01

PMK

BoreOfWhabylon · 06/09/2019 01:15

pmk

BlackeyedGruesome · 06/09/2019 01:16

Fish, rug ,sovereign.

No sure I have got the hang of this...

People food not care that trump did awful things, they are not going to care about Boris. If they want Brexit they are going to listen to his leaving on the 31st talk.

borntobequiet · 06/09/2019 01:34

At last a chance to placemarking early due to being unable to get back to sleep. Thanks Red. What fresh horrors will the new day bring, I ask myself? Going to London tomorrow to protest. Here’s a link to OYBBK’s protest thread.
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3677475-Protests-against-the-Prorogation-of-Parliament?pg=18#prettyPhoto

tobee · 06/09/2019 02:17

Place marking with the comment that Red I take heed of your above comments.

NotaRealLawyer · 06/09/2019 02:33

Here. Thank you again.

mathanxiety · 06/09/2019 03:44

Agree RTB that commentators have not adjusted to the new game.

Though Trump's election occurred thanks to playing the Electoral College, whereas the UK elects a new Parliament constituency by constituency.

DuchessDumbarton · 06/09/2019 04:28

I think you are very prescient RTB, sadly. I think we are all operating to BJ's playbook now.

ClashCityRocker · 06/09/2019 04:47

Place mat King.

Alicewond · 06/09/2019 04:52

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

Jesaminecollins · 06/09/2019 04:56

Boris is loving this - he likes having all the media attention and despite looking like a bumbling fool he is very intelligent and knows exactly what he is doing. A lot of MPs will be either sacked or made to leave and he won't care as long as he gets what he wants and that is that we leave the EU on 31st October.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 06/09/2019 05:29

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3677475-Protests-against-the-Prorogation-of-Parliament protest thread - lots planned this weekend.

bellinisurge · 06/09/2019 05:31

Thank you RedToothBrush . A day off work today of chores and medical stuff. And seeing a pal who is a new UK citizen whose "Life in Britain " test, while full of difficult and obscure questions (even for a history/politics nerd like me) didn't cover this shit. Or maybe they will actually understand it better than me.

Allington · 06/09/2019 05:43

I agree that BJ is probably seen very differently by the mass of the electorate.

How that plays out in a GE, though, is difficult to calculate in a FPTP electoral system.

Factor in:

  • tribal/historical loyalties, something that seems to be in rapid change, but does tend to kick in for GEs.
  • sitting MPs tend to have a slight advantage, unless they have done something to hugely offend the local constituency. Certainly a factor for those of The Twenty-One who are planning to stand as independents, or challenge their de-selection with the support of the constituency assoc.
  • it is difficult to tell how single-issue the GE will be, obviously Brexit is huge, but the effect of voter fatigue with the issue might be to increase its impact ('just get it over with' - although of course it would only be the start), or on the other hand people might decide that they are beyond caring and focus on other things instead
  • even without official overall pacts, various parties might come to agreement in certain constituencies not to stand in order to avoid splitting the Leave or Remain vote

Every constituency has its own dynamics, and the popular vote does not necessarily translate into a Parliamentary majority.

Allington · 06/09/2019 05:47

Plus, of course, '“No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it's not the same river and he's not the same man.”

Coined by that genius who also thought it would be a good idea to bury himself in cow dung, after which he was devoured by wild dogs.

NoWordForFluffy · 06/09/2019 06:18

In sacking a load of 'old-style' MPs, a whole swath of 'old-style' Tory voters will have been alienated. Not all Tory voters are Gammons, there are plenty of them who are like Clarke, Hammond, Grieve et al who will not appreciate the direction their party is going in.

Empty vessels make the most noise. So many people are just going about their business and all make their voices heard when they get to put a cross in the box.

Don't be so sure we - as a nation - will go for this Trump-esque approach. It make work on some, but the majority? I'm not so sure.

I agree that Labour need to target their campaign on certain areas to make it effective, once it's decided that we're having one. I think they're right to make BoJo wait for it. And he's trying to goad them into a VoNC with all the 'die in a ditch' rhetoric.

I wonder what the AG's advice to him is? I'd love to read that!

NoWordForFluffy · 06/09/2019 06:19

All = will.

TheCaddyisaBaddie · 06/09/2019 06:19

Where is Farage, he seems rather quiet at the mo?

NoWordForFluffy · 06/09/2019 06:19

Make = might.

Think I need to go back to bed! 😂

wrongsideofhistorymyarse · 06/09/2019 06:23

PMK

Myriade · 06/09/2019 06:25

Another thread gone in 24 hours Shock!!!

Thanks RTB.

boatyardblues · 06/09/2019 06:27

Pmk

Myriade · 06/09/2019 06:36

I agree that BJ is nowhere near finished.
And that the risk of going deeper into an ‘authoritative’ system (I would say a extreme right dictatorship) is still there.

I also think we should start looking again at the big picture. Who, in the world, is currently runnishn their hands with glee?
Do they have any link with the Trump ‘system’?
Why is it that there are so many similarities between how BJ is behaving and how Trump is behaving?

And why, why, isn't there journalists and politicians to point this out and start fighting? Because, imo, the fight here isn’t even about Brexit, it’s about democracy and keeping democracy in the U.K. alive.

FWIW, this is why I have REALLY appreciated to see the Rebels walking ‘to the other side’ in the HoC. Some politicians have shown 1- how serious a thread it is to the British democracy and 2- that they have the gut and the morals to oppose it.
Unfortunately I’m not sure this enough.

Note: I don’t think it’s necessary to have a dictatorship China style - or Russia etc...- to see democracy to stop working. We need to wake up to the danger of democracy been undermined from the inside out, with all the democratic systems used to support a system/ideology rather than support the wealth/wellbeing of the country itself.