Westminstenders: "He's in trouble". No he's not.

[RedToothBrush]

All day I've seen nothing but comments and tweets about he Johnson is in trouble and he's losing it.

They are wrong. He's far from done.

Take a step through the Looking Glass and the world looks different.

Those tweeting and reporting all care about events and are following closely. They are unrepresentative of the population as a whole who don't give two shiny shits.

And so we have the Trump dynamic.

The Liberal elite of broadcasters and journalists who are only seeing through the lens of their own judgement, not from the repackaged marketing.

Instead they are unwittingly publishing the images and slogans in the format Johnson wants and enter the minds of the public as planned.

The media are out of step with perceptions. And that's worrying. They don't see what's coming.

Johnson will have an election at some point. With the Tory party cleansed of moderates it is the Brexit Party one way or another, whether it be by takeover or coalition. And its riding high in the polling.

Even though even his brother has abandoned him, the future looks positive for Johnson as his opponents have a complete lack of self awareness and no understanding of the opposition they are taking on; they are campaigning in a way that plays into the hands of Johnson.

Despite his lack of majority and apparently absence of plan or speech notes, the biggest mistake you can make now is to write off Johnson.

You do so at your own peril.

Pay close attention to how authoritarians work and what's already happened in the US. We are on course to repeat it.

Did anyone else get a Lion King earworm after seeing those images of Johnson with the police lined up behind him. Some see a shining new era tiptoeing nearer, I see hyenas taking over the pride lands.

I am disturbed by his “I’d rather be dead in a ditch than delay Brexit” comment. It’s a very odd thing to say.

How literally should it be taken?

But in the Police propaganda shot, just about all the people passing out looked extremely fed up. How many of them will have expected this to have been their big day with proud families in attendance, and to hear the focus not be on them but Johnson slagging off Labour, and thought that this wasn't what they wanted to hear?

Greed of pilots - yes that's a good one, go after people who are well paid in a secure job. Never mind that it requires expensive training and you need to keep yourself fit, and most of us want to be flown by people who know how to fly a plane.

It looks like the Tory Party aren’t losing that many votes to the Lib Dem’s but I bet they lost a chunk of their moderate support in 2017 which was hidden by Ukippers voting for them.

Quite a lot of moderates don’t really have a party to vote for at the moment - I would count myself amongst them. The LDs are an ultra- Remain and that won’t chime well with many.... most of the Tory rebels believe we need to leave, and though they are remainers at heart.

what's your take on the DM not having anything to do with Brexit on their front page today? I thought for sure it'd be the police propaganda shot. One off, or a sign of a shift in editorial preferences?

The Mail is on message.

It's attacking middle class professionals for being greedy. That fits with targeting working class / lower middle class demographic which earns a much lower wage or older voters who go on holiday a lot.

It's still about inducing the 5 minute rage against a perceived 'liberal elite'.

Why do you think its off topic? It's still v much in keeping with the culture war.

If / when we come to an election, there will be a Leader's debate on TV.
Johnson will be on stage with people who know about the effects on No Deal.

Those fed up to the back teeth of Brexit, will not be watching TV debates, so won’t be aware of any of this.

They’ll continue to naively think BJ can bring this whole Brexit thing, to a swift end.

If it had been Corbyn doing a speech in front of recruits like that, the press would have crucified him.

Different standards for Boris.....

For anyone who watches Trump, this is basically what Trump does. He has hijacked the military, the border force and tried to associate himself with these people who are supposed to be impartial - and used them for his optics.

Thanks, red 💐
Excellent analysis

imo, we need to stop fixating on Revoke and coentrate on te best way to stop this hard right cabal taking over

Their popular support is focused on Brexit;
we have to counter that narrative of the "elite" demanding to rerun a vote they don't like

The PV looks like it would drag down the Labour vote; politically it is toxic
Depending on Corbyn winning a GE - and then Remain winning a PV is verging on fantasy

I hope MPs vote for the WA, to stop No Deal
It is the best chance of combatting the hard right - far from certain, but there is no more likely way
Of course we need to do a great deal more, but that is imo the essential first step

Once Brexit has actually happened, the moderate Leavers would no longer be attracted to the Tories or Farage
The headbangers would still be there, but they are a minority of Leavers

Do NOT fantasise about an LDem govt;
under FPTP, they need about 43% of votes to get a majority, whereas the Tories need about 32%

Red, re the pilots, we've said the same thing in different words there!

I was looking at Ed Vaizey's majority - even if it was halved compared with last time he would probably still squeak in, and although the LibDems would fancy their chances, it was Labour who came second last time. UKIP came last.

Pmk
Live in strong leave area, traditional labour, do no idea. Think it depends on timing.

Pmk

Why do you think its off topic? It's still v much in keeping with the culture war

Didn't say it was off topic, was wondering why they hadn't gone with the police photo, when that would play well with their readership. DM has always been about culture war, their alternate choices were no surprise.

I don’t know anyone under 35 who buys a newspaper especially the Mail.
DF (die hard Labour voter) buys the Mail for the M&S tokens and because he ‘likes to know what the enemy are thinking’.

I agree strongly with your OP, RTB.

Also, I think it's old hat to talk in terms of "alienating Tory voters" because if we accept that Cummings is in charge and that Boris has no loyalty to anyone except Boris, then we need to understand that Cummings doesn't give a shit about the Tory party.

It's simply the host out of which he'll hatch his revolution.

If Cummings takes some Tory voters with him through their loyalty or inertia, that's fine by him. But he's not after "Tory voters" per se. He's after people who'll respond to populism and authority and a charismatic "strong leader".

These will come from all over the shop.

From my understanding, the people who tend to buy the actual DM paper tend to be middle class professionals, older, richer retired people.

You just need the titles though. Enough to give you an idea on bad bad all this elite is. Even if you have just vaguely seen the top title on the way of picking up your sausage roll at the corner shop.

That’s the photo and the title that makes people react. The same way that very few people read the articles linked on FB. They just see and react to the title. (Or thé même etc...)

Re various posts on Labour economic policy, they do have a problem here as Tories are abandoning austerity. Labour is more redistributive, but their actual position is more nuanced. I run a small business, have investments, own home, etc, and their policies would affect me. BUT the bigger picture is that inequality needs tackling. McDonnell has been doing the rounds with big business and is being listened to.
The Tories current approach is to (seemingly) throw money at a broken system. Labour wants to reform the system.
But can they turn that into a winning election soundbite?

Pmk

@PerkingFaintly, I agree and it’s depressing like hell.
And shows how authoritarian regimes are so easy to implement via the ‘democratic’ way.

It also raises many questions about democracy itself Tbh

People may look at the front pages

And that's all that's needed.

An older family member used to brag to me, "I don't follow the news. Politics, meh. But I get the impression..." and go on to parrot some DM talking point.

When questioned about where he'd got the impression that eg most people on disability benefits were scroungers, he couldn't tell me. But he believed it all the more strongly because he knew he "hadn't got it from being fed it by the biased newspapers, because I don't read them".

This was an intelligent, well-educated man with whom I'd had many discussions about media misrepresentation of areas he was expert in. He thought he was a clever cynic and immune to media influence – which only made him more vulnerable to it.

Just listened to Emily Thornberry on Today. I think I understand Labour's (or at least her position) but that's not good enough.
I think she's in favour of a second referendum but I'm not sure.

So the only parties whose position I can be sure of is Brexshit Party, Johnson/Tory and Lib Dems.

Also, I think it's old hat to talk in terms of "alienating Tory voters" because if we accept that Cummings is in charge and that Boris has no loyalty to anyone except Boris, then we need to understand that Cummings doesn't give a shit about the Tory party.

All that is true, but other people DO give a shit about the Tory party, and Cummings can't win an election alone. He needs activists, and it strikes me that the sort of people who tend to be activists for the Tory party are either zealots who may be out campaigning for BXP this time, or old school party loyalists who may have their own views about what's happening.

Also Cummings is becoming the story, a dangerous position for an advisor. If he is still in post at the end of Sep I will be surprised.

I think the position is highly uncertain for all camps but I do not share the doom and gloom on here. The sort of people who are fed up with Brexit and just want to get on with it may not be the most motivated to turn out. And party switching effects are not homogenous but highly local, so I think swings need to be interpreted with great caution.

Pay close attention to how authoritarians work and what's already happened in the US. We are on course to repeat it.

It’s frightening.

What next?