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Brexit

Westminstenders: "He's in trouble". No he's not.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2019 00:48

All day I've seen nothing but comments and tweets about he Johnson is in trouble and he's losing it.

They are wrong. He's far from done.

Take a step through the Looking Glass and the world looks different.

Those tweeting and reporting all care about events and are following closely. They are unrepresentative of the population as a whole who don't give two shiny shits.

And so we have the Trump dynamic.

The Liberal elite of broadcasters and journalists who are only seeing through the lens of their own judgement, not from the repackaged marketing.

Instead they are unwittingly publishing the images and slogans in the format Johnson wants and enter the minds of the public as planned.

The media are out of step with perceptions. And that's worrying. They don't see what's coming.

Johnson will have an election at some point. With the Tory party cleansed of moderates it is the Brexit Party one way or another, whether it be by takeover or coalition. And its riding high in the polling.

Even though even his brother has abandoned him, the future looks positive for Johnson as his opponents have a complete lack of self awareness and no understanding of the opposition they are taking on; they are campaigning in a way that plays into the hands of Johnson.

Despite his lack of majority and apparently absence of plan or speech notes, the biggest mistake you can make now is to write off Johnson.

You do so at your own peril.

Pay close attention to how authoritarians work and what's already happened in the US. We are on course to repeat it.

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Rhubarbisevil · 06/09/2019 06:37

Pmk. Did someone report my dead in a ditch joke? Or is mnhq all over these threads?

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 06/09/2019 06:41

Thanks red

AJPTaylor · 06/09/2019 06:43

You only have to look at the tabloid headlines to see which way it's going.
Same with the referendum. At lunchtime on that day I went and had a look and I knew then we were doomed.

DoctorTwo · 06/09/2019 06:44

Johnson is going to drive us over a cliff to save his career not knowing it will finish it, and us.

Thanks for these threads RTB, I read them all but rarely post as they move too fast. Nice to get in near the beginning.

merrymouse · 06/09/2019 06:44

With the Tory party cleansed of moderates it is the Brexit Party one way or another

Agree - but what policies do its members share apart from Brexit?

I know the Republican Party has fractured a bit since Trump, but the deal seems to be that Trump’s vulgarity/lunacy/racism is tolerated as long as he signs the bits of paper that enact long term republican policies - create judges, cut taxes, restrict reproductive rights etc.

On the other hand the Tory Party seems to have abandoned their traditional policies (their big electoral idea just seems to be spend money, whether on public services or no deal) and some of the people it has chucked out or lost this week wouldn’t be regarded as moderate in other circumstances.

Farage might be able to whip up popular support, but he couldn’t give a shit about policies or government.

It will take years to Brexit, but doesn’t a party need something more?

Someonetookmyusername · 06/09/2019 06:45

I disagree that the media don't know what they're doing the BBC playing up the 'chicken's and 'big girl's blouse' comments from the PM and making Corbyn look reasonable and boring by comparison.

They've seen how this play out with Trump and they are making the same thing happen here.

OutOfIdeasMum · 06/09/2019 06:45

@bellinisurge My Life in the UK test actually covered this stuff. The Poltics section of the book was the only decent one, in the rest, they mostly tried to come across as "welcoming other cultures" (good one) and pretended to be best pals with the Irish, "although many Irish still consider Oliver Cromwell a controversial person".

It doesn't help that the books are written in "simple English" so they read like the most fucked up nighttime story ever written. But funny if you have a dark sense of humour.

(waiting for my naturalisation outcome, so fingers crossed...)

CatteStreet · 06/09/2019 06:46

I think Red's analysis is correct, sadly.

Having watched over 1 in 5 of those voting in the German state where I live vote for the AfD last Sunday, often not despite but because of the things they say and policies they advance in a place where it should no longer be possible, and facing the prospect of them becoming nice and normalised over the next few years and then, combined with opposition bonus, ending up in coalition next time round, I am loth to underestimate the appeal of carefully staged authoritarianism to many.

lonelyplanetmum · 06/09/2019 06:46

PMK with eternal thinks to Red.

I don't know why but awoke with this John Donne phrase in my head. I think it's because of the polls, the polls.
"Any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind; and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee"

Yes Not all Tory voters are Gammons, there are plenty of them who are like Clarke, Hammond, Grieve et al who will not appreciate the direction their party is going in. But why aren't more disaffected loyalist Tories speaking up - and speaking up loudly on a constituency and national levels?

It's that authoritarian approach, suspending parliament, kicking people out - it actually reaches out to the core Tory supporters.

Listen here any Tory MN lurkers out there. If the ERG takeover will do that to Ken Clarke, Philip Hammond, Sir Nicholas Soames - what do you think they'd do to you, your pension, your grandchildren, your healthcare?

Sostenueto · 06/09/2019 06:50

PMK

CurlyWurlyTwirly · 06/09/2019 06:52

Pmk
Thank you for your intro analysis @RedToothBrush
Honestly, they should all be catalogued and made into a book for future students of political history. Your analysis is spot on.

AnnaMariaDreams · 06/09/2019 06:52

The trouble is in many constituencies the alternative is Labour.
I have been reading up and my family would be much worse off under Labour. It might even be worse than No Deal.
They want to raise taxes - a lot. We have a rental property and they want to take it away and give it to the tenants (WTF?). They want to raise inheritance tax.
We need a centrist pro remain party who could actually get in. Do LibDem have any chance at all?

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2019 06:57

Election maps UK @electionmapsuk
Westminster Voting Intention:

If Election BEFORE 31st Oct:

CON: 37%
LAB: 30%
BXP: 9%

If Election AFTER 31st Oct:

CON: 28%
LAB: 28%
BXP: 18%

Via @ICMResearch.
(These are the only figures available right now).

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merrymouse · 06/09/2019 06:57

We have a rental property and they want to take it away and give it to the tenants (WTF?). They want to raise inheritance tax.

Are these actual policies or suggestions in research papers?

NoWordForFluffy · 06/09/2019 06:58

Because some / many people don't like to put their head above the parapet; they just want a quiet life (and that's their prerogative, whether we agree or not).

I'm still planning for the worst and hoping (oh boy, am I clinging on by my fingernails to hope!) for the best. I have the content of a small supermarket in my bedroom. I protested last week. But I can't be too political on SM due to my job.

Utterly crazy times we're in.

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2019 06:58

No idea why LDs aren't on that but it shows how desperate some voters are to leave though...

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NoWordForFluffy · 06/09/2019 06:59

I read in the Metro that Labour is considering right to buy for private tenants. Which isn't the same as giving it away.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 06/09/2019 06:59

PMK

NotJustACigar · 06/09/2019 06:59

Pmk

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 06/09/2019 07:00

Just saw the news that Robert Mugabe has died. In my precaffeine addledness I misread it as Rupert Murdoch. Now I'm wondering what would be happening media wise if Murdoch died. Probably nothing much would change nor necessarily be a change for the better.

Socksontheradiator · 06/09/2019 07:01

Lonelyplanetmum
Exactly! Why do people not see this?

TokyoSushi · 06/09/2019 07:04

PMK

AnnaMariaDreams · 06/09/2019 07:04

As long as I have the right not to sell if I don’t want to, that’s fine. I’m not interested in selling my rental property at the moment and am unlikely to want to for at least 20 years. Why the rights of tenants override my rights. My rental property is very nice (I used to live in it) and I make sure it is well maintained. That is what the tenant is entitled to.

Someonetookmyusername · 06/09/2019 07:04

We have a rental property and they want to take it away and give it to the tenants (WTF?).

Yeah that seems likely.

ColaFreezePop · 06/09/2019 07:07

The percentages don't help.

Reason being straight percentages don't map to constituencies.

Even the referendum vote didn't map to constituencies.

So while my area is mostly remain this doesn't map to the constituency I'm in plus the political colours of the area. Labour are a poor third but do enough damage to split the vote.

Think I may have to go and leaflet for the Lib Dems to persuade all those Labour voters not to let the small majority Tory MP back in.

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