Westminstenders: "He's in trouble". No he's not.

[RedToothBrush]

All day I've seen nothing but comments and tweets about he Johnson is in trouble and he's losing it.

They are wrong. He's far from done.

Take a step through the Looking Glass and the world looks different.

Those tweeting and reporting all care about events and are following closely. They are unrepresentative of the population as a whole who don't give two shiny shits.

And so we have the Trump dynamic.

The Liberal elite of broadcasters and journalists who are only seeing through the lens of their own judgement, not from the repackaged marketing.

Instead they are unwittingly publishing the images and slogans in the format Johnson wants and enter the minds of the public as planned.

The media are out of step with perceptions. And that's worrying. They don't see what's coming.

Johnson will have an election at some point. With the Tory party cleansed of moderates it is the Brexit Party one way or another, whether it be by takeover or coalition. And its riding high in the polling.

Even though even his brother has abandoned him, the future looks positive for Johnson as his opponents have a complete lack of self awareness and no understanding of the opposition they are taking on; they are campaigning in a way that plays into the hands of Johnson.

Despite his lack of majority and apparently absence of plan or speech notes, the biggest mistake you can make now is to write off Johnson.

You do so at your own peril.

Pay close attention to how authoritarians work and what's already happened in the US. We are on course to repeat it.

On a last note. Boris will not sign that letter to Brussels. So expect things to blow up next week, as the rebels realise they can not ask for an extension themselves.

North Korea, Privatisation Central 😂😂

I love the idea that there are two magic money trees. A Corbyn one is dreadful but a Johnson one is just and true and not at all about vomiting nonsense promises to distract people from shitness.

They are both nonsense.

@CurlyWurlyTwirly

You speak lots of sense.

hoooo noooo I hate comrades i forgot about Labour's use of it!!! Cringe. Cringe. Cringe.

Fuck it.

Good morning comrade chicken hoooo

+Corbyn is a longterm Lexiter, but he has always said he is opposed to No Deal*

Which makes him a unicorn fantasist in lieu of any actual plans on how to achieve one without the other

And stop using 'oh the irony' when you have nothing of substance to say, it comes across as unhinged when we look at the consequences of a labour government at this precise moment in history.

"Unhinged"?
Intelligent women know your place. A " banker" is here. Allegedly.

I think that many of us on here would take the WA now, simply to avoid no deal. We need to be pragmatic and realistic about the vote and what's likely to be achievable in the future.

As long as we can say we've left and the press isn't full of Brexit, Brexit, Brexit and it not happening, the more the resentment will build up. Once the press can say we've left, any news about the negotiations will probably be missed by many people as they actually aren't that arsed about the nuts and bolts of it. And the press will have other stories they can cover.

If it's Corbyn leading a GNU that achieves leaving, he'd most likely go up in popularity in some areas.

Now the Kinnock amendment has gone through with the Benn Bill, when is the WA being put to Parliament again?

I can’t see any contradiction between wanting to leave the EU, as espoused by Lexiters, and simultaneously rejecting a no deal exit. If that is Labour’s position (though it’s still somewhat unclear) it’s consistent and responsible.
My own preference for many months now is to pass the WA, “get on with it”, try to minimise damage to the economy and build a society that doesn’t treat the poor and vulnerable with contempt. And hopefully, rejoin the EU in some form at some time in the future.

Saturday shift are at least slightly more coherent.....

Well, the rebels could win a VoNC and make Corbyn the interim PM to ask for an extension

Or if they don't want that, then the WA returns to be voted on
Labour voted against before for party political reasons, which don't apply now
Many Tories voted for that before ... including BJ

If the Tories are able to run out time to No Deal, then Labour need to refuse a GE until the effects of Brexit have fully happened.

The balance of payments crisis, as UK exports are hit, probably won't show up in the statistics for 6 months

However, BJ's desperation to have an early GE before any Brexit effects bite,
do make me wonder how well their No Deal prepping is going, re e.g. medications

We don't know who would win this next GE
but No Deal is probably the only thing that could bring a Labour landslide in the following GE and destroy the Tories for a generation

"Mastermind" Cummings isn't even a Tory, so it's not that his cunning schemes are intended for their interests

Green you must be the only banker in London who is completely sure they will be 100% fine with their job, food and meds after No Deal.

You think we will still be capital for banking in a few years after a No Deal? Or are you banking (pun intended) on oligarchs and money laundering increasing and us becoming Singapore on Thames?

Anyway, amusing as the Corbyn fearmongering has been, we usually go through the actual reality of what is happening with the shitshow being run by the Tories on a daily basis (on this thread). I suggest you admit you aren't winning any followers here, on a thread that contains many who have studied the impact reports, work in the sectors affected and have people who may die or loose their livelihoods in the event of a No Deal Brexit, and clock off. Or stay and join in, but you are rather derailing the thread.

I hear that the Queen will be signing it on Monday. An awful thought crossed my mind...will she make it till Monday?

What happens if a bill has gone through Parliament - but the Queen can't sign it for health reasons?

Is it law? Can someone sign it in proxy?

Sorry Greenpeace but it's just not true that a Corbyn government would mean that investments would dry up.
I am a former CIO of a 14bn fund management company who still sits on 2 investment boards (for pension funds).
All the talk in investment circles that I'm hearing is that no deal is Armageddon and that Corbyn (based on his last manifesto) has a reasonably centrist economic policy e.g. Corp tax (28%).
There is some personal grumbling about tax increases for over 150k income and vat on school fees but these are considered pithy little inconveniences compared to no deal, which all points to massive additional taxes (e.g. trade tarriffs) on business rendering many of them unviable as a going concern. The job losses, tax take, etc that result from this are frankly immeasurable
None of the city people I talk to would vote Tory now (except the hedge fund managers) and many would prefer libdem/green or labour.

Over the water, the Irish Times calls up Parnell's ghost for JMR.
www.irishtimes.com/opinion/some-lessons-for-rees-mogg-and-johnson-from-charles-stewart-parnell-1.4010022

For me the fact that the arch No Dealers like Rees-Mogg and Redwood have moved their investments to Ireland, France and Germany says it all. Why aren't they investing in the UK since it has such a glowing future? Where is their backbone?

OK Rees-Mogg we know has a problem with his backbone because he has to lie down in Parliament to rest it.

BCF
How can the govt dismiss its own planning documents as Project Fear ?
[…]
However, if Yellowhammer is so incompetent - or subversive

Each dept was originally asked to write their own bit on how they thought they would be impacted. When that was collated everyone's scenarios were fed back into each others to stress test. As the landscape changes the numbers are re- run. Input is from as wide range of sources as possible.
I don't think it is incompetent or subversive. It is a planning document that says if X happens then our models predict that Y will follow. It is the management of the release of it's contents that could be considered subversive or incompetent, but as the CS does as it is told by the Government of the day that blame cannot be laid at the door of CS.

Don't think my name suits me any more...hang on...

@chomalungma , if the Queen doesn't make it, Charles becomes King and signs it. No messing around on that score.

Exactly, BCF. If we do no deal, Parliament needs to let the minority government struggle on while the country goes to pot around them. It's going to be more than 'bumpy', but it will at least show the Tory Brexit policy for what it is: destruction of the nation and most likely the union.

I do think that a desperate parliament will probably pass the WA before allowing no deal, however.

But surely it's an own goal for the Tories to allow somebody else to 'deliver Brexit' (I hate that phrase!)? How do they spin stepping aside as they couldn't do it, only for it to happen as soon as they're not in charge?

I really do think that most leavers just want to hear that we've left. They don't really care by what means; they're only saying they'll take no deal over the fucking interminable pig's ear we've got going on now as they just want it over with. I'm pretty sure it's not about actively wanting no deal.

So, I dunno, let's just get the WA through and go from there maybe? We simply cannot go on and on and on and on and on like this without destroying the country with the uncertainty.

It's is I, Lonely [
It was either this or Poulet Rouge, but that was a chicken step too far to the left for me

Did you read the news that the insurance business in the city has already moved 75 billion£ (billions) to Europe in brexit preparation? That’s damage that has already been done, and will not be recuperated any time soon. When a Lloyds moves 20billion or so to Madrid or Amsterdam it loses a % between exchange rate and commission etc, and the skills that were previously almost exclusive to the city are now being scattered amongst other countries.
That’s damage due to bad politics and bad organisation (not by business, by government) PRE brexit. And it’s by the Tory government.

I don’t know Anyone in Real Life that sees opportunities in the current situation, except those who have dollars or foreign income

Cluck cluck. Much better username!

Have I missed a 'Queen in ill health' story / rumour? Is she going to pop off before Monday? (It's somebody else who signs it anyway, but yes, Charles would do it.)