Westminstenders: "He's in trouble". No he's not.

[RedToothBrush]

All day I've seen nothing but comments and tweets about he Johnson is in trouble and he's losing it.

They are wrong. He's far from done.

Take a step through the Looking Glass and the world looks different.

Those tweeting and reporting all care about events and are following closely. They are unrepresentative of the population as a whole who don't give two shiny shits.

And so we have the Trump dynamic.

The Liberal elite of broadcasters and journalists who are only seeing through the lens of their own judgement, not from the repackaged marketing.

Instead they are unwittingly publishing the images and slogans in the format Johnson wants and enter the minds of the public as planned.

The media are out of step with perceptions. And that's worrying. They don't see what's coming.

Johnson will have an election at some point. With the Tory party cleansed of moderates it is the Brexit Party one way or another, whether it be by takeover or coalition. And its riding high in the polling.

Even though even his brother has abandoned him, the future looks positive for Johnson as his opponents have a complete lack of self awareness and no understanding of the opposition they are taking on; they are campaigning in a way that plays into the hands of Johnson.

Despite his lack of majority and apparently absence of plan or speech notes, the biggest mistake you can make now is to write off Johnson.

You do so at your own peril.

Pay close attention to how authoritarians work and what's already happened in the US. We are on course to repeat it.

I think the Tories will win an election, possibly with brexit support. We will have populism not conservatism. That has two positives - the DUP wont be in control and the technocratic austerity of Osbornomics will be dead. However, the magic money tree will shake more for authoritarian priorities than for the left behind, and the economy is going to make sure there arent many leaves. If you want to eat, get someone who likes you into the police...

Also, can we have slightly less praise for jo Johnson who was holding a job with an obvious conflict of interest in a parliament if ALL parties having too many cosy political dynasties.

pmk

Are these actual policies or suggestions in research papers?

A lot of these things that Labour are supposedly going to do tend to be research papers filtered through the prism of the right wing MSM and then regurgitated as facts, its tiresome but it is what it is.

They want to raise taxes - a lot. - Top 5% of earners, those on more than £80,000 a year, to face a 45p marginal rate of income tax and a new 50% rate on earnings above £123,000

Youre earning over £123,000 and your complaining that you have to pay a little more, you understand that people are starving to death right?

We have a rental property and they want to take it away and give it to the tenants - Shadow chancellor John McDonnell suggested in a conversation with the Financial Times earlier this week that Labour could introduce a “right-to-buy” scheme which would allow private tenants to buy the home they are currently renting

So its not even Labour policy

They want to raise inheritance tax. - Labour is looking at introducing new inheritance rules, which would slash the minimum threshold for paying tax on wealth passed from generation to generation, John McDonnell has revealed.

The shadow chancellor said his party was interested in reforming the current inheritance model, in an attempt to create a fairer system.

He said the if the party was in government, it would consider introducing a lifetime gifts tax, which would cut the current minimum tax threshold on inheritance from £475,000 to £125,000.

So again not even Labour policy is it

A proper, constituency-by-constituency, opinion poll would be helpful. Do they only commission those once there's a GE date? I agree that blanket % don't really help.

I don't think the Trump comparison is appropriate.

• this is not a two party system
• May was hugely popular in 2016. She lost her majority less than a year later and was despised by most Brexiters by 2018
• Trump had a senate and congressional majority (latter now lost) and courts that can be stacked in his political favour. Tories don't even have a majority in the HoC.
• polls are lagging this week's events. Jury still out on what the reaction will be. Brexiters will abandon him if he doesn't deliver.

OTOH opposition is split and any election would be hugely uncertain.

NoWord that sort of polling is expensive, and unreliable in its own way. Regular polling has the uncertainty specified eg within 3 percentage points 95% of the time. This isn't a very accurate explanation, but that uncertainty is amplified by 650 if published for every constituency, and it's really hard to get your samples representative that many times.

Agree with Mistigri. It's all to play for.

Lololol at 'reading up' on Labour - try something other than the DM. But I guess you've proved red's point 🙄

Anyway, PMK. Trying to keep up.

Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley
I’ve been looking at where the 2017 vote has been going according to the latest numbers from the pollsters.

Here is what I found...some highlights...

THREAD

% of 2017 Labour vote now voting Lib Dem
Overall: 15%-24%
Ipsos 20%
YouGov 18%
Survation 24%
Deltapoll 16%
Opinium 15%
Kantar 18%
BMG 20%
ComRes 15%

Key question: these are large numbers considering Lab got 40% in 2017.

Can Lab squeeze these voters or are they lost for good?

% of 2017 Labour vote now voting Brexit party
Overall: 1%-11%
Ipsos 3%
YouGov 8%
Survation 8%
Deltapoll 6%
Opinium 11%
Kantar 1%
BMG 7%
ComRes 9%

Key question: what is the true figure and will it grow in an election where Labour is vocally supporting a 2nd referendum?

% of 2017 Con vote now voting Lib Dem
Overall: 6%-11%
Ipsos 8%
YouGov 7%
Survation 11%
Deltapoll 8%
Opinium 6%
Kantar 6%
BMG 10%
ComRes 8%

Key question: Just how many votes will Cons lose to the Lib Dems in a General Election - and where?

% of 2017 Con vote now voting Brexit party
Overall: 7%-21%
Ipsos 8%
YouGov 14%
Survation 19%
Deltapoll 18%
Opinium 21%
Kantar 7%
BMG 16%
ComRes: 20%

Key question: just how much can the Tories squeeze the Brexit party vote? Will there be a pact or will it all fall apart?

Worth saying that these numbers aren’t perfect. Fieldwork for each pollster at different times, based on crossbreaks that can be reasonably small. Nevertheless, gives us a flavour of where voters are going and the dynamics of a campaign to look out for.

ENDS

[[RTB also worth reminding that 10% of 200 is bigger than 10% of 15 as comparing the percentage numbers of Lab and Cons directly is slightly misleading

The cons got 13,636,684 votes and labour 12,877,918 votes thus the above looks like

Lab to Lib
Between 1,931,688 votes to 3,090,700 votes
Lab to Brexit
Between 1,287,792 to 1,416,571
Total loss between 2,704,363 and 4,507,271

Con to Lib
Between 818,201 and 1,500,035
Con to Bxt
Between 954,568 and 2,863,703
Total loss between 1,772,769 and 4,363,738]]

And that's ultimately why things still look altogether better for Johnson

I guessed it would be MShip, but given this government's propensity to throw money at stuff, I idly wondered if they'd commission one!

That poll with only 3 parties in it isn't very helpful really. If you're going to poll, put all the parties on there!

I agree with Mistigri too.

Bollocks post above isn't easy to read, will look thoroughly at the maths later

I agree very much with Red’s opening post. A huge number of people are so fed up with Brexit, they just want it “over with”. That’s the message BJ and his cabinet are pushing and it will get votes.

They aren’t being told that No deal will just be the start of years of negotiations.

It’s the Referendum all over again- short soundbites, which are lies. (The red bus and Turkey) Remember the person who “masterminded” that win was Cummings.

The remain parties need to push the message home that jumping off a cliff to no deal won't be the end of it, far from it.

I think that the manifestos will be interesting. A GE isn't advisory. Rules will have to be followed in the campaigning. I want to see the actual nuts and bolts of the Tory message in black and white. At present BoJo is blustering away, not answering questions, in his usual style, but a GE requires putting shit in black and white.

I do despair of this bloody country though. I never realised how utterly stubborn and devoid of critical thinking skills (or just refusing to put these in action) so many people are until now.

PMK in a horrible ‘watching a car crash’ kind of way.

Be interesting to see a comparison of 2015 to now.

It looks like the Tory Party aren’t losing that many votes to the Lib Dem’s but I bet they lost a chunk of their moderate support in 2017 which was hidden by Ukippers voting for them.

The shadow chancellor said his party was interested in reforming the current inheritance model, in an attempt to create a fairer system.

It was an idea floated in Resolution Foundation research paper - a think tank that aims to improve the living standards of those on low and middle incomes.

Not that you’d know that from the right wing MSM.

RTB what's your take on the DM not having anything to do with Brexit on their front page today? I thought for sure it'd be the police propaganda shot. One off, or a sign of a shift in editorial preferences?

If / when we come to an election, there will be a Leader's debate on TV.
Johnson will be on stage with people who know about the effects on No Deal.

He won't be able to dodge those questions, like he did before.

I don't know how important the TV debates will be, but they might make a difference.

I really hope there are people on the Opposition who are as manipulative as Cummings.

In sacking a load of 'old-style' MPs, a whole swath of 'old-style' Tory voters will have been alienated.

I think so too. I think (or hope)it will make a lot of them wake up and see what is happening in their party. The nearest Tory to me is Ed Vaizey, in what is a Remain area. How is a Remain Tory going to vote - for Ed who they like, or for a Tory apparatchik parachuted in? I said also, I wonder who owns various Tory party premises? If owned by local associations there could be some interesting battles ahead.

I thought for sure it'd be the police propaganda shot

But the Royal Family is more important for the DM. Sells more papers on the front page.

I think RTB is right that BJ is not down and out.

Also, the rebels even if they stand as independents are likely to support most of the non-Brexit policies as will the DUP. So he could probably cope with a slim majority post a GE.

But the Royal Family is more important for the DM. Sells more papers on the front page.

That was sort of what I was thinking, they're the most nakedly commercial main paper really. But there were a few other hints yesterday that they didn't care for weak appearing BJ.

I would expect the polls to be more out than ever, if we do have a GE.

God knows I don't know who I'd vote for yet. We are in a fairly safe (and fairly brexity - although did vote for mays WA) tory seat... Although this was the first time that he didn't get over half of the results so there is a possibility with tactical voting that we could oust him - Labour has by far the bigger vote share so quite probably will be voting Labour. And the lib dems under JS are pissing me off.

I think there's a lot in the same boat...

@RedToothBrush

Excellent analysis... BJ may have lost a few battles this week, but he has far from lost the war... Indeed, this week’s events may serve to strengthen him as it strengthens the “People vs Parliament” narrative. Unless those forces against BJ can align in some kind of coherent plan for Brexit (PV or WA), then I believe the Tories will likely win any autumn GE.

Personally, I think the WA needs to be resurrected and brought back to the HoC in late October... Much as I would prefer to Remain in an ideal world, the alternative of a PV will only make matters even worse, and is very unlikely to resolve matters, especially in the direction Remainers would like... it is clearly a Trojan Horse (and not a very subtle one at that) for those who want to Remain, and will be seen as such.