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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
28
prettybird · 04/09/2019 22:36

Confused Cat On Lap

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
BlackeyedGruesome · 04/09/2019 22:41

4 fucking threads behind now...

Miljah · 04/09/2019 22:43

Thanks yet again to RTB for making some sense of the shenanigans that pass for our elected representatives right now.

But all are not equally guilty, by any means.

Hoooo · 04/09/2019 22:49

Pmk

DeRigueurMortis · 04/09/2019 22:52

PMK

Driedlimes · 04/09/2019 22:52

No idea how to post a tweet but Laura Kuenssberg just tweeted the following (having previously omitted the 'NOT' :

A senior Labour MP has just said Jeremy Corbyn told him tonight he would NOT allow Boris Johnson to have an election before 31st October

Sure hope so

TheMShip · 04/09/2019 22:52

Abbreviations thread for new readers:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation

Common ones I've seen asked about recently:
PMK = Place Mat King (old typo joke for placemarking)
VONC = vote of no confidence
PV = People's Vote (referendum)
FTPA = Fixed Term Parliament Act

prettybird · 04/09/2019 22:53

I think that we should still be wary of CumBlowJob's long term strategy: playing to the electorate with the "surrender bill" and Corbyn as a "chlorinated chicken".

Such statements might not go down well in Parliament, but there again, the GE can't be resisted forever - and he doesn't mind the big gamble because he assumes he (or at least his Puppet) is going to win Hmm And they do go down well with those less clever than CumBJ Wink the proletariat Hmm the general public Sad

OublietteBravo · 04/09/2019 22:55

Wow. The threads haven’t moved this fast for months.

pigeononthegate · 04/09/2019 22:56

PMK

chomalungma · 04/09/2019 22:58

think that we should still be wary of CumBlowJob's long term strategy: playing to the electorate with the "surrender bill" and Corbyn as a "chlorinated chicken

I'm hoping that people are aware of this strategy - Trump used it effectively.

It may be that tricks like this are needed on all sides - it's hard when the media has a particular view on this as can be seen in the paper headlines.

Sostenueto · 04/09/2019 23:00

PMK

fedup21 · 04/09/2019 23:02

If the prorogation goes ahead-what will the MPs actually do for the next few weeks?

Haggisfish · 04/09/2019 23:03

Thanks op. Good summary. Am absolutely gobsmacked by the parliamentary shenanigans!

TokyoSushi · 04/09/2019 23:06

PMK! I'm exhausted!

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 23:07

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Excl: Senior Cabinet ministers confront Boris Johnson to insist he overturns his expulsion of 21 rebel MPs, led by Michael Gove
t.co/tDT7K8IWlW

Sam Coates Sky @samcoatessky
I wonder if this story 👇🏻 is a sign some members of the cabinet suddenly spy the possibility of a leadership and have begun positioning

Pippa Crerar@pippacrerar
Perhaps, but maybe they’ve just been taken aback by how unpopular the sackings were among One Nation colleagues and how damaging to the Tory party brand.

Remember Guake not just had whip removed but expelled from Party.

I don't expect a reversal purely from what I know of Cummings (watch the c4 film) and his contempt of MPs when they didn't get his leave strategy - Johnson trust him on this.

Is it a miscalculation?

Not sure. I do think things are being read differently by public to politicians though.

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Violetparis · 04/09/2019 23:08

If BJ does ask those MP's he kicked out yesterday back, I wonder if they will say no.

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 23:08

Sam Coates Sky @samcoatessky
TBH It was the act of leaking that made me think of the leadership point more than the content of the leak

After a day of chats with Tory MPs worrying that options for Johnson are narrowing

Johnson may yet win a stonking election majority and deliver brexit, tho - it’s 🤷🏼‍♂️ time

Valid point.

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RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 23:09

Dom Walsh @domwalsh13
Johnson interview with @Peston:

- Says that while "the whole Withdrawal deal" is bad, solution is remove the backstop and change the Political Declaration - no other changes mentioned

- Repeats "what's sauce for the goose" hint re: deselecting ERG-ers who vote against a deal

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lonelyplanetmum · 04/09/2019 23:13

PMK -still wishing we could awake to find out the plot lines were all a figment of Bobby's dream

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 23:13

Steve Peers @stevepeers
Dominic Grieve telling @Peston that he might run as an independent candidate in the next election.

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Jellykat · 04/09/2019 23:14

Feel like i'm trying to second guess what BJs real agenda is constantly.. and praying MPs have totally sussed his slithering, and manage to scupper him every which way from now on.. meanwhile Trump must be warming Boris's side of the bed..

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 23:18

Feel like i'm trying to second guess what BJs real agenda is constantly.

Then you are over thinking it.

Johnson’s agenda is and always has been becoming PM and having power and doing what's best for Johnson.

It's a constant throughout his personal wnd professional life.

He's a simple creature.

Cummings is the more complex one to second guess.

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LonelyTiredandLow · 04/09/2019 23:20

Polish Male Klucks
and because I posted it on the tail of the last thread:

I've just realised the Boris Effect.
Due to his constant lies and flip-flopping all over since becoming PM, now when he calls JC a "coward" we hear "brave" etc.

Amazing!

Icantreachthepretzels · 04/09/2019 23:25

You know who I feel sorry for in all this? The historians of the future. Imagine having to wade through this lot for your GCSEs.

Weary and befuddled placemark. I'm just glad there's a Buffy/Angel thread at the moment to distract me.

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