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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

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TheNumberfaker · 05/09/2019 08:07

I must be an ultra hardcore remainer because I think we are at the point now where we can push for a PV. No one really wants the WA+PD, it’s all Remain or no-deal.
I think patience and it’ll be the only option.

LonelyTiredandLow · 05/09/2019 08:09

fedup21 it was predicted when it didn't go through that unless the WA was renamed/superficially jazzed up by BoZoCum then it would be back; as it is the only 'deal' there is. There was even speculation that if HoC had time to reconsider the appalling choice between No Deal and WA it would be preferable to them and it would be what we end up with, as a good thing, even back then.

Politics does take so very long! I suppose it's like an opera, you have to get the public to get emotional over all of the characters along the way to change their mood.

WhatwouldScoobyDoo · 05/09/2019 08:13

PMK - thank you for the thread!

Is it possible that the govt are planning to undo the prorogation when it’s discussed on Monday?

(Can they even do this??? I have no idea!)

So it looks as if they are responsive and they also get more parliament time before 31/10 to try to get back in charge??

Belindabelle · 05/09/2019 08:14

Its another trap.

Now the bill will receive Royal Accent by Monday and Johnson will go back to parliament again to demand an election. Corbyn stated yesterday that Labour would go for an election once the bill had passed into law. He also issued a statement last night to confirm his stance on this.

However if an election is agreed for 15th October there is nothing to stop Johnson going to the Queen to change the date to after the 31st October. He does not then have to go to Brussels to negotiate. Then we crash out without a deal. Election is held on 7th November and conservatives romp home as they have delivered Brexit.

Labour have to come up with yet another way of turning down the offer an election without looking even more "chicken".

Belindabelle · 05/09/2019 08:25

However Ben Bradshaw asked Starmer about this in the debate yesterday. Starmer confirmed that an election should not be agreed until the contents of the Act are acted on i.e. Johnson tries to get an extension. But yet again Corbyn and the PLP are not on the same page.

I am getting this view from Theo Usherwood. I am too tired to come up with this theory on my own. Need more coffee.

cherin · 05/09/2019 08:25

I don’t mind labour looking like a chick, even, as long as they outsmart tories at the end....
And I’ll vote them too. My MP is really good and she’s been very active and vocal and she defied the labour orders multiple times (in fact, she’s probably now at the back of back of the backbenchers ;-) but she repeated over and over that her constituency voted 83% to remain and she believed she was doing the right thing.

WhatwouldScoobyDoo · 05/09/2019 08:27

cherin yes,my labour mp has been fantastic throughout too.

CurlyWurlyTwirly · 05/09/2019 08:27

I thought the whole point of the new bill was to make it illegal to leave with no deal.
I think there will be an extension and the WA as negotiated by TM will sneak in (Kinnock Amendment).
We’ll probably leave on the 31st of January. Even though I want to remain, we need some sort of compromise because the Leavers in the UK and the split in the country is not an insignificant figure.
The UK, if it’s leaving needs to do so in an orderly fashion.
Longer term, it will be the break up of the United Kingdom. There is a huge appetite in some quarters for an English Nationalist Party. (Aka Brexit Party and far right conservatives).
Scotland and probably Wales will want to rejoin the EU.

PostNotInHaste · 05/09/2019 08:35

PMK having done first school run of year 11 DS’s friend very nervous so did pep talk of getting head down, keeping at it steadily throughout the year so we’ll prepared when exams come. We have a new catch phrase for the year - ‘Don’t be a Boris’

Was very interested to see the WA bit sneaked in having pondered on it last week. We definitely live in interesting times, personally I would prefer boring.

TheMShip · 05/09/2019 08:37

Thread on Twitter from Jo Maugham:

Just so that those outside the Westminster bubble know, the foundation of Stephen Doughty's question is a rumour that a number of key figures in Number 10 are communicating about the real reasons for suspending Parliament using unofficial channels. 1/2 bit.ly/2zNsbdN

They are rumoured to be communicating using WhatsApp, private email and 'burner' phones. I have a list of names of those said to be involved. This is only a rumour but a number of factors make it seem credible to me.
First, the question 'what is the real reason for the suspension' is absolutely central to whether it is legal. Second, the notes of the plans to suspend Parliament were drawn up in Number 10 after we sued the Government. So it has motive to tailor those notes accordingly.
Third, the notes themselves - not yet in the public domain but I understand the BBC is today making an application for them, and we will apply to get unredacted copies - are in their tone and content consistent with having been tailored to a particular purpose.
Fourth, the list of names of those involved is very specific, including some I have never heard of. Fifth, the story is consistent with what I have been given by several independent sources as the reason why Govt has not put in affidavits to explain the reasons for suspending.
(That reason is that those figures were asked by Government lawyers to sign affidavits but refused to do so because they knew they were not true and did not want to risk exposure and imprisonment for perjury.)

So, for me, what I have described as rumour has the ring of truth.

end quote

Help! What was Stephen Doughty's question??

KennDodd · 05/09/2019 08:38

Longer term, it will be the break up of the United Kingdom. There is a huge appetite in some quarters for an English Nationalist Party. (Aka Brexit Party and far right conservatives).

I predicted calls for English independence ages ago, got laught out of town.

Cwenthryth · 05/09/2019 08:39

Morning!

However if an election is agreed for 15th October there is nothing to stop Johnson going to the Queen to change the date to after the 31st October. He does not then have to go to Brussels to negotiate. Then we crash out without a deal. Election is held on 7th November and conservatives romp home as they have delivered Brexit.

I find it hard to believe that in that scenario that conservatives would romp home - having played dirty tricks in order to achieve no deal. I think many leave-minded voters wouldn’t support them for either or both of those reasons (no deal and/or trick playing). If 21 MPs felt strong enough against no deal to get purged, there must be bog standard conservative voters who feel the same, let alone the poor behaviour.

darkcloudsandsunnyskies · 05/09/2019 08:40

Rubbish.

The outcome is to delay, prevaricate and revoke.

Remainers won the referendum.

It’s over.

Now the rewriting of history begins.

TheMShip · 05/09/2019 08:44

More from Maugham in attached image - he says these questions need asking of govt reps.

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
TheMShip · 05/09/2019 08:48

Aha, found the Stephen Doughty question:

The Leader of the House is talking about the alleged subversion of democracy. He seemed not to answer the hon. Member for Airdrie and Shotts (Neil Gray), so I ask clearly: first, on what date did the Leader of the House first become aware of the plan to prorogue Parliament? Secondly, have any officials from his office, 10 Downing Street or elsewhere, whether political advisers or civil servants, been conducting communications away from the normal channels, in such a way that would not comply with the terms of candour and disclosure necessary for the court proceedings that are currently taking place?

Funny aside, I knew him as a kid in Canada when he was doing his IB at one of the international schools. We were in youth parliament together. Grin

Basilpots · 05/09/2019 08:48

@wheresmymojo the fact that I read that tweet and didn’t even bat an eyelid shows how far this Tory civil war has gone.

Belindabelle · 05/09/2019 08:51

Cwenthryth I would love you to be right.

Basilpots · 05/09/2019 08:53

@ContinuityError Burner phones !!!!!

If everything is above board with proroguing Parliament why the need ?

prettybird · 05/09/2019 08:53

I don't really have much respect for Nick Robinson since the Indyref but I did like this exchange Grin:

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
Violetparis · 05/09/2019 08:54

I want the WA to be passed too and was pleased that Kinnock's amendment got through. I've always wanted a deal even though I'm a remainer. For this point of view on other forums I've been called a Brexiter, a fascist appeaser, a Russian bot etc.

I've always felt very uneasy about the attempts to overturn the result of the referendum. Not because I don't want to remain but because I thought the consequences of this were dangerous.

At first I thought the danger was Leavers mass rioting in the streets, this hasn't happened yet (although I know it still could and there have been incidents with the extremists). I now know they don't have to riot, the backlash will come in at the next general election when millions will vote for BJ or Farage. Remainers signing endless petitions and marching make no difference when there are many millions more who will go into the quiet, privacy of a voting booth and vote the way we don't want them too, just like they did in 2016.

Just look at Trump, millions just don't care that he is a lying shambles of a man, the similarities with what Boris is doing is worrying indeed.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 08:55

As far as I can see Corbyn now holds a few cards ?

  • he can reject Boris' call for an snap election as "hasty", noting that "haste is why we are here today".
  • he can reverse his criticism of proroguing parliament noting that he "now understands the Prime Ministers sincere attempt to clam the situation rather than inflame it"
  • he can offer to work with the Tories in GNU, since Boris has stated several times that negotiations are getting somewhere
  • alternatively, if an election is needed, it should not be called in haste, but after a period of measured calm when the electorate has had a chance to fully assess the options before them. Maybe early 2020 ?

Obviously I must have bumped my head as I woke up (as DF used to say), but it's what I would consider.

Meanwhile, does Boris expulsion of anyone who doesn't agree with the expulsion of the 21 signal the official start of the Tory civil war ? Will the party happily carry that out, or will they reflect and say "you know what mate, instead of expelling half our membership, it might be more economic to expel you ?"

What was it Harold Wilson said ?

PostNotInHaste · 05/09/2019 08:55

I’d also love you to be right Cwenrythe but my Dad wouldn’t listen to that, he is fully focused on the will of 17.4 million people and I can tell that nothing I can say would sway him.

He will find the narrative he wants to support his viewpoint and it will be provided for him.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 09:02

So this would be agreed tactics by senior Tories across both houses..so what conclusions do we draw?

Is it that the filibuster was a token attempt for Tory electioneering purposes- 'we tried as hard as we could to achieve no deal honestly we did?'

I wouldn't draw to much tbh.

The Tory Lords have done this before.

Ultimately what is the point in dragging it out for three days if your opponent is happy to sit until Sunday?

The determination to stick it out to the bitter end filibustering would have to run deep. Even some of the most dedicated Brexiteers, I'm sure would much rather just be in bed.

I think it's more to demonstrate the Lords support the government and want Brexit. Nothing more sinister in this case.

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RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 09:03

Paul Brand@paulbranditv
BREAKING: PM will directly address the public today.

No 10 spokesperson says “Jeremy Corbyn has led a drive by Parliament to back a “Surrender Bill” that stops us delivering Brexit, and is also cowardly running away from an election”.

Can't wait for the daily address to the nation at 6pm...

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