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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

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RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 00:34

I simply can't see what Cumface is getting at the end of this

DH and I have had this debate (what with him thinking he's like Cummings... Yeah yeah I know)

He thinks he wants nothing personally and thinks he's ideological driven as a reformist. Which is dangerous and just about the worst person you want in that position as its about his inner morals. Hence his desire to smash up everything without consequence as he simply thinks its the 'right thing to do'.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 00:40

Gabriel Milland @gabrielmillard
An interesting thing: Jess Phillips' name is starting to get mentioned spontaneously in focus groups.

OP posts:
Apileofballyhoo · 05/09/2019 01:20

Hence his desire to smash up everything without consequence as he simply thinks its the 'right thing to do'.

Bit like Hitler, I suppose.

HesterThrale · 05/09/2019 01:34

Andrew Adonis is live tweeting from the Lords about the debates and votes. They’ve voted on 17 filibusters out of over 100, but suddenly the government has surrendered!

@Andrew_Adonis
Government chief whip announces government cave-in at 1.20 am - they are lifting the filibuster after 10 hours, with a commitment that the EU Bill will pass by 5pm Friday. We have stopped no deal - & we can now go home

mobile.twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1169406626366971904

Also I’ve had an email saying the government will debate the 1.7 million No Prorogue petition on Monday. Isn’t that the last day before it starts?

phpolly · 05/09/2019 02:40

.

NotJustACigar · 05/09/2019 05:11

PMK = Place Mat King (old typo joke for placemarking

TheNumberfaker · 05/09/2019 05:28

Lonelyplanetmum
Patrick Duffy, who played Bobby Ewing, has already agreed to do anything if Brexit gets stopped!

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
bellinisurge · 05/09/2019 06:03

I'm a nerd on this and I now don't know what the fuck is going on.
If I just keep rocking back and forth saying "Border in the sea/NI becomes a special economic zone " can someone just make me a cup of tea now and again.
Thanks Red. Your thread intros and comments (as well as the comments of other Westminstenders) are helping me very much.

wheresmymojo · 05/09/2019 06:14

I won't even attempt to catch up on yesterday's thread but watched the voting and caught up on Twitter/News to get an overview.

Bloody work getting in the way again

I'm sure it was covered on the thread yesterday but Jess Phillips was absolutely bloody amazing. I'm not usually one for any kind of sleb worship but I think I might be a proper fan girl Blush

Sometimes you just need a woman from the Midlands to tell fuckers what's what Grin

wheresmymojo · 05/09/2019 06:16

I'm just about to watch Peston interview with BJ on catch up before work.

Re: leak about 'Senior Cabinet Ministers including Gove challenging BJ on removing whip'. Reasonably clear leaked by Gove to keep himself in the favour of One Nation for any forthcoming back stabbing opportunities 🐍

wheresmymojo · 05/09/2019 06:18

This was my fave Tweet last night Grin

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
OhYouBadBadKitten · 05/09/2019 06:22

Morning all. Pleasantly surprised by the government cave in. Woke up to an email in my inbox telling me the petition is to be debated and that the Lords are going to get the bill ready so it can go to the Commons on Monday.

Do we have a fixed date for prorogation yet? Could they prorogue parliament on Monday? I can't work out what they are up to otherwise.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3677475-Protests-against-the-Prorogation-of-Parliament Protests thread

wheresmymojo · 05/09/2019 06:28

Dominic Grieve on Peston...

"There's an ideology that has come with Brexit - if you are pro-hard Brexit it means you are pro-low taxes, low regulation and low welfare state. And this isn't something that is acceptable in this day and age in the UK."

Have paraphrased but he's calling out what we already know. This is about more than Brexit, Brexit is the beginning of wanting a harder right UK.

Really recommend watching Peston from last night on catch up - it's live immediately after the vote. Grieve, Phillips, Javid's sacked SpAD, Johnson.

SegregateMumBev · 05/09/2019 06:34

Do you think Johnson will realise at some point that if he revokes article 50 he gets to stay on as world king?

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 05/09/2019 06:35

Thanks red

I caught something somewhere that said it's like he got his wish to be PM from a genie. He's technically PM now but that doesn't mean he'll be any good at it Grin

lonelyplanetmum · 05/09/2019 06:36

If political gurus on here can't unravel it all-what hope is there for the rest?

On the Government chief whip announces government cave-in at 1.20 am - they are lifting the filibuster after 10 hours

So this would be agreed tactics by senior Tories across both houses..so what conclusions do we draw?

Is it that the filibuster was a token attempt for Tory electioneering purposes- 'we tried as hard as we could to achieve no deal honestly we did?'

That's what I don't get I think- are the shabby games- (eg proroguing for the unprecedented 5 weeks, posting 100 Lords amendments and filibustering ) genuine attempts to leave with no deal. Or is all of it courting the far right Faragist or Tory vote and appeasing the ERG wing of the party?

One thing is clear- Johnson's comments that we are doing X,Y,Z to position ourselves for the EU negotiations ( if any) is sheer nonsense. There aren't even any amendments to the WA on the table. All the game playing and posturing is solely for the domestic audience. I've finally got that.

wheresmymojo · 05/09/2019 06:37

Why did jess Phillips say that she wasn't aware of parliamentary process??

My reading of this was an implied criticism of people like JRM, Cash, etc.

That you can't hide behind snarky comments based on finer points of Parliamentary procedure because you've been here forever and think this is more important than doing the right thing for the country, etc.

wrongsideofhistorymyarse · 05/09/2019 06:39

PMK

CatteStreet · 05/09/2019 06:43

Follower of and occasional visitor (under a previous name) to these threads.

Red, thank you, your dedication is heroic Flowers

And thank you to all the articulate, well-informed regulars - particularly appreciating BigChocFrenzy's view from Germany (where I am too). Been here two decades and have citizenship (since last year), so fortunately safe from personal implications, but, of course, it all still matters very much. No practical but a huge emotional stake in all this.

Rhubarbisevil · 05/09/2019 06:48

So how did TM vote if she is still an MP and hasn’t been deselected? Surely she didn’t vote for Boris?

boatyardblues · 05/09/2019 06:49

PMK

Driedlimes · 05/09/2019 06:50

I don't trust the cave in on the filibuster. I think it was a stitch up to ensure at the least that Johnson can try another GE vote before Plt is prorogued & attack JC on weakness if Lab continue to abstain; or ( and I really hope not) Lab have done a deal to agree to an early election if the bill is passed - ie they have fallen into the trap.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 06:55

Interesting that some papers like the narrative that Corbyn actually has power - real power. Admittedly they've doing it by smearing him, but it's never a good tactic to admit your enemy can actually do something to hurt you if you haven't got a bigger stick with which to hit back.

I wonder how that dovetails with the brief hint in the previous thread that some city backers aren't as anti-Corbyn as they might once have been ?

Regarding insurance ... as far as I know, acts of war and terrorism have always been exemptions, with the wording made convoluted by successive governments refusing to call the Troubles a "war" (which conveniently allowed them to duck the Geneva convention). And certainly us little people would have been stuck if we'd tried to claim. But as noted previously, the moment the Big City Boys realised they'd lose out - well the pressure was on. Something I have no doubt the IRA noted, and remembered.

I suspect any future conflict will be more like drones around airports and cyber hacks. Untold millions in lost business with no way to recoup the losses.

If you want a real tinfoil hat moment, maybe that's what the Gatwick drone incident was last year ? Someone making a very clear point about what might happen "if ...." (I think I suggested as much at the time).

ClashCityRocker · 05/09/2019 06:59

I am probably guilty of being overly simplistic here, but aren't the three options revoke (possibly with a people's vote), the WA (which the EU are adamant cannot be amended) or No Deal (which Parliament do not want).

My heart would love revoke and remain, but I don't see how it is politically feasible. And I suspect that it would also ultimately be damaging (less so than a no deal brexit, of course). The issues are not going to go away and I think that a later general election would lead to a rise of the brexit party. We would have the threat of leaving hanging over our head constantly.

Going for the withdrawal agreement seems the only sensible option now. Perhaps with a rapid rejoin if public mood really does shift - which it might, if people feel we have actually brexited. I believe Barnier has suggested that a rejoin within the period set by the withdrawal agreement would be made straightforward.

Anything to avoid no deal.

Hoooo · 05/09/2019 07:00

Wrt the WA.....At the risk of sounding like a know all wanker...

Told ya!