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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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BoreOfWhabylon · 06/09/2019 00:41

Jenkyns is horrible ERGer. As is her slug of a DH.

One of them is my MP.

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2019 00:49

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3684820-Westminstenders-Hes-in-trouble-No-hes-not?watched=1
Busy morning ahead of me so new thread up.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 07:54

"Looking at it on the long-term the differences between no deal and WA with the hard right at the helm aren't going to be huge. "

RUBBISH

No Deal is certain disaster
It is above all else a disorderly Brexit that means the EU won't even start trade talks until we accept the WA main terms anyway

The WA at worst invokes the backstop and we are as in that documentary an "EU colony"
Right now, that looks brilliant

Best case is after a few years negotiation we get a trade deal that is SM+,
or even - if there is public support - the Fast Track Rejoin that the EU said is available under the WA but not under No Deal

Yes, we could get a dictatorship that break internationial treaties etc, or a massive asteroid could strike the UK, but letting No Deal happen won't stop either

Peregrina · 06/09/2019 08:20

The difficulty as I see it with passing the WA, is that we then go into transition, so nothing much has changed. The food and medicine shortages which could lead to riots but might force people to wake up, won't occur in the short term. Grist to the mill of the Leavers - see we have left and nothing has happened.

AnxietyDream · 06/09/2019 08:32

the EU won't even start trade talks until we accept the WA main terms anyway

Well, quite. So how in the long term is it going to be radically different?

TheABC · 06/09/2019 08:40

If you want to break Johnson, Farage and the far right, first you need to break no- deal Brexit.

You have to keep reminding yourself that a lot of this is going directly over the heads of the electorate. I spoke to a friend the other day who though no -deal just meant Remaining! When I explained the implications (as neutrally as I could - she has anxiety), she looked horrified. I suspect if we can take the deadline off the table, Johnson is stuffed. That's why the Labour position will work. It stops the poison and (if it is the WA), most people will quietly gruble and accept it. There's a lot of buyers remorse out there and most people just want the shitshow over with and life returning to normal.

To break Johnson, we either need to

  1. Get a national figure (Ken Clarke?) to stand up, say it's a mistake and Revoke. He tacks a Bill on to that which addresses the main fears of the Leavers - using existing powers allowed under EU immigration, asserting Parliamentary supremacy, no EU army etc.). It's window-dressing, of course, but I can't see us electing more than 300 hard-core Brexit headbangers in the near future to overturn it. Because we will be back to normal issues such as the NHS.

  2. Pass the WA. The only other viable option and less shit than crashing out. The politicians can then say they have done the will of the people and the discussion then turns to technicalities which can easily take years to thrash out. A lot of hard work and no simple slogans. Most people will assume it's done and dusted (or eyes will glaze over ) and return to normal viewing.

Peregrina · 06/09/2019 09:59

To break Johnson, we either need to
1) Get a national figure (Ken Clarke?) to stand up, say it's a mistake and Revoke.

Throwing Ken Clarke out of the Tory party hasn't yet led to an uprising so I don't think this will work.

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 12:16

"the EU won't even start trade talks until we accept the WA main terms anyway
Well, quite. So how in the long term is it going to be radically different?"

Because it will take several months, maybe years of economic disaster, possible med shortages and deaths of the vulnerable

and then the UK govt would be forced into a humiliating U-turn
with a very angry public even more vulnerable to the far right - betrayal, foreign enemy etc

A Tory govt might simply refuse, so we wait several years for a Labour govt

I remember the 18 years of Thatcherism which changed the country and moved the Overton window permanently to the right.
Much further right and we'll fall off the damn edge

ListeningQuietly · 06/09/2019 13:08

Steve Brine (Winchester) and Caroline Nokes (Romsey) are both from areas that are incredibly marginal
both seats have had LibDem MPs in recent years

If the Tories put in a right wing candidate then certainly Steve has a good chance as an independent.

OublietteBravo · 07/09/2019 09:12

Sorry to bump an old thread, but @RedToothBrush we need a new thread. Please. We used up the old one. Blush

Peregrina · 07/09/2019 09:16

Yes, I was wondering where the new thread was, but there is still a little bit of space in this one.

I will be watching what happens to the 'no longer Tory' Tories, who were almost certainly more true to the party than Boris Johnson. People like Soames and Clarke have Tory running through them like a stick of rock. As does Theresa May. It's a pity she didn't rebel. I would have loved to see Johnson kick her out of the party.

QueenOfThorns · 07/09/2019 09:19

Hopefully RTB will be along soon to start a new thread. In the meantime, comrades, have you considered that not everyone likes jam? To appeal to wider sectors of the populace, we may need to espouse marmalade, honey and possibly even marmite Grin

Basilpots · 07/09/2019 09:21

@OublietteBravo

Yes yes to ‘Girly Swot Party’

I love Joanna Hardy follow her on Twitter.

Peregrina · 07/09/2019 09:22

I thought we were going to export all our jam? Leasdom said so. Mind you, this was under the May regime, so maybe its changed.

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 07/09/2019 09:22

queen I like peanut butter. I'll never fit in Grin

JustAnotherPoster00 · 07/09/2019 09:24

I thought we were going to export all our jam?

Corbyns going to be busy making all that Jam fucking allotment dweller that he is Grin

Enjoying all the new PP's tho Hmm

QueenOfThorns · 07/09/2019 09:27

Oops! Sorry, I forgot peanut butter. Yes, OhLook, even weirdos like you are welcome Grin

JeSuisPoulet · 07/09/2019 09:27

Went out to drop dd off and you'd filled the thread!
I think the last one had a link Red put up somewhere, non?
Anyone posted this yet Guardian on BoZo being willing to break law

Motheroffourdragons · 07/09/2019 09:28

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

JeSuisPoulet · 07/09/2019 09:29

As a side note - I can't stop looking at the man's leg in that picture in the Guardian story - I know we are meant to be impressed with BoZo's bull restraining...but that leg Shock

JustAnotherPoster00 · 07/09/2019 09:31

Sir Nicholas Soames on Jacob Rees-Mogg:

"He is a living example of what a moderately cut double-breasted suit and a decent tie can do with an ultra posh voice and a bit of ginger stuck up his arse."

No punches being pulled now Grin

Peregrina · 07/09/2019 09:34

I am getting confused. Is what they are now referring to as the Benn bill the one which the Borisites put up no tellers for, so it passed by accident? The one which allows the WA to come back? It could come back in the next session anyway.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 07/09/2019 09:36

No Peregrina that was the Kinnock 1, the Benn bill is the anti No Deal

JeSuisPoulet · 07/09/2019 09:36

I spot a weeny problem BoZo may have with being imprisoned - he won't be able to go to live in the US once he's shoved UK out of the plan window...

TheABC · 07/09/2019 09:38

Raises hand" I agree with@Fluffy.
It's been three years of unremitting Brexit.
The country is sick of it
Brussels is sick of it
The MPs must think it's their personal hell.

At this stage, asking for an extension is just another exercise in can-kicking. And that's assuming the EU says yes! We need a positive decision. WA. Revoke. Boris sold to the flying monkeys - who knows?

I think most people will grumble and accept it. Then we can have a decent debate about fixing the underlying problems in this country.

I suspect that the youth vote has underestimated this time around and voters are bring more tactical than ever. It's likely to be some flavour of hung parliament again. So getting out of this impasse is crucial.