Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
28
JustAnotherPoster00 · 04/09/2019 23:26

PMK

Dontlickthetrolley · 04/09/2019 23:28

Thanks for the new thread Red

Do they still need to vote to shut down for conference season or does the proroguation (?) cancel that out?

Ellie56 · 04/09/2019 23:29

From the last thread:

It would be hysterically funny to see Tories trooping into the lobby to No Confidence themselves 😂
Another good reason for not providing the ⅔ majority tonight

If Labour can force them into that ridiculous situation, then Labour will agree with them, but it would be a gift in a GE campaign to ALL the Opposition parties, every Tory marginal ! 😂

"the Tories voted they have No Confidence in BJ or themselves. Why should you ?" 😂

BJ would go down in history as the first ever PM to announce No Confidence in himself 😂

Not quite Churchill is it BigChoc? Grin Grin

pumkinspicetime · 04/09/2019 23:29

I have really struggled to follow this today.
Still not sure I'm completely clear on everything.
I can't believe it is still so messy.

CurlyWurlyTwirly · 04/09/2019 23:30

Relieved there won’t be an election for now. I really wouldn’t know who to vote for. Risk that labour / liberal vote would be split and the Tories ( or rather the English Nationalist party, as it has really become) would weasel back in.
I am an ardent remainer,, but would compromise on Theresa May’s deal, so that there was no risk of No Deal, and at the next election we can vote on other issues and get rid of Boris ASAP.

BigChocFrenzy · 04/09/2019 23:31

Thanks, red 💐

It's encouraging that BJ and Cummings are such a pair of fuckups
And light relief too, to ease the stress.

That may be our best hope to stop No Deal, because Starmer, Benn, Grieve and co have the brains,
if they can take Corbyn and enough MPs with them

Noone knows what'll happen
I still think No Deal, but not the 95% I estimated before BJCUM started all these cunning plans

BlackLetterDay · 04/09/2019 23:31

Today was very interesting, I also learned that a channel on twitch is restreaming the parliament channel Confused. Not sure how long it's been going but the chat is fairly insane.

BigChocFrenzy · 04/09/2019 23:31

Whenever I think BJ can't make himself more ridiculous .....
There must come a turning point when enough of his supporters decide this too

Anyway, he is amusing people across the world, not just Europe
I get the opinions from various regions of India, also Skorea and China from work colleagues, not just Germany
They think he is a buffoon and the UK has followed him / Alice down the rabbit hole

prettybird · 04/09/2019 23:33

I think the SNP were right not to go for the GE until BlowJobCum has been tied down and No Deal is off the table it's an indictment on him that his word can't be trusted Hmm

I'm still wary even then as the Conservatives may will still win a majority ShockSad, even though the SNP look like they're going to do really well (back to 2015 numbers) - although there's many a slip twixt lip and cup Confused

....although that's a warning that the Conservatives should also remind themselves of Wink and hopefully CummingBlowJob is so arrogant that he'll forget Grin

pumkinspicetime · 04/09/2019 23:33

Today was very interesting, I also learned that a channel on twitch is restreaming the parliament channel

I found this today as well! As I'm in the US without a vpn I was well chuffed.

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 23:35

David Gauke @Davidgauke
Just received an urgent clarification. Membership still valid but barred from being re-selected. I don’t have anything in common with Dominic Cummings after all.

A happy note on which to end the day.

OP posts:
TheABC · 04/09/2019 23:35

Thank you, everyone. I have just ploughed through two threads, cheering, applauding and saying "WTF" a lot.

Johnson is well and truly backed into a corner. Purely as entertainment, Monday will be epic. I am expecting lies, u-turns and a lot of dirty tricks. It's all he has left.

I also expect a lot of former MPs to be standing as Independents in the event we will have an election this year. I don't think that landslide Conservative victory is a given.

IDontBelieveYou · 04/09/2019 23:36

PMK. Will the Lords likely vote overnight or tomorrow?

PestyMachtubernahme · 04/09/2019 23:36

Johnson may have achieved his dream and become PM. However as Cummings knows, BJ is disposable. Keep an eye on the snake like Gove

lonelyplanetmum · 04/09/2019 23:37

On the subject of overthinking ... what I was rambling about on the other thread is sort of about the psychology of it all.

-Last March TM wanted desperately to pass the WA. She gave that angry speech which went down really badly. In it she basically said I am implementing the will of the people but Parliament is against the people.Therefore I have no choice but to seek an extension from the EU that I do not want. In some way her genuinely wanting to pass it somehow fuelled a reactionary response to prevent it passing.

  • Six months later BJ secretly (??) wants to pass the WA? He also gives speeches which say I am implementing the will of the people in the name of the people. But really he attempts to shut down Parliament. Or does he feign an attempt to shut down parliament knowing this will be stopped. He too may soon be saying I have no choice but to seek an extension from the EU that I do not want.

I'm not sure where I'm going with this but perhaps because he is a true no deal BeLeaver- the paradoxical conclusion of this is that he will get the WA passed because he genuinely doesn't want it and there's a reactionary psyche dominating the voting patterns.

Sorry I think ve flipped.

BigChocFrenzy · 04/09/2019 23:37

No Deal voters were not put off by Project Fear; they went all macho
However, this continual embarassment of a buffoon - and loser - PM might eventually make them settle for soft Brexit

Lewis Goodall✔@lewis_goodall

Remember when all Brexit needed was some “force of personality” to get it through?

Boris Johnson is 4-0 down.

Cwenthryth · 04/09/2019 23:41

Hello new thread. Seems like not so much more will happen now for the next few days (or am I going to be proved wrong on that).

Just want to say - don’t really care if ppl think I’m a party pooper - I find the constant “Blow Job/Cum” references on these threads really puerile, we all know the view of the man, but the juvenile sexual puns are just unnecessary. It makes the arguments & criticisms against him sound weak. We’re better than that. It doesn’t influence my opinion of BJ - he manages to colour that all by himself - it does make me think less of the person writing it and discount their posts more.

LonelyTiredandLow · 04/09/2019 23:41

loney - he will do whatever keeps him in power longest. I do think a lot of the ND stuff has been bluster and heavy handedness to keep the authoritarians onside. However long term it divides and ND would wreck Tory party. So, he gets to deliver Brexit at least, just not as hard as he would have liked (or so he will say).

BigChocFrenzy · 04/09/2019 23:41

"because he is a true no deal BeLeaver"

No, lonelyplanetmum BJ doesn't give a shit about Brexit, never did

He has always been only a BJ Believer
He only wants to stay PM, his lifetime ambition

BigChocFrenzy · 04/09/2019 23:43

btw, the last thread lasted 1 minute under 24 hours !
red again 💐

BlackLetterDay · 04/09/2019 23:43

Lonelyplanetmum maybe its down to good old fashioned misogyny?

LonelyTiredandLow · 04/09/2019 23:43

Thus if you like him you forgive him as a leaver
If you like him you say he united the country

If you don't you wouldn't have liked him anyway and no loss but Brexit will be less painful all around. Vs Corbyn that might win some votes.

Jellykat · 04/09/2019 23:45

What i mean Red is when i watch the news / Newsnight etc, everything i hear/ see is in the here and now.. none of them seem to look at the bigger picture re. what Boris has been really scheming all along..

Of course he wants it all, and a GE will secure it.. he's manipulated everything along these lines from the get go, but there seems to be a lot of almost naive reporting going on, as if we're heading that way by an accidental sequence of events.

Meanwhile i find myself second guessing, in a 'ah yes, if he does A, then B is likely to happen, and he can do C' kind of way.. but i am overly analytical!

lonelyplanetmum · 04/09/2019 23:46

ah yes I always forget Mr Johnsons two letters supporting both sides. But why did the public (including Leavers) really not like it when May said Parliament is against you the people. But do like Mr Johnson echoing the same sentiment by his actions?

Peregrina · 04/09/2019 23:47

Has any new PM lost so many votes in Parliament in such a short space of time?

I think he's already beaten any 20th century politican for losing a vote so quickly in office - and that was after 42 days. But bearing in mind that Parliament has been in recess for most of those 42 days, he's really lost his first vote after about a week.