Westminstenders: Game On?

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has had prorogation approved by the Queen.

There has been widespread outrage and horror both in the UK and in Europe. Johnson has ripped up the principle of Liberal democracy even if constitutionally what he has done is legal. In shredding convention and the 'gentlemans agreement' of understanding we teeter on the edge of democratic collapse.

Talk is tha Dominic Cummings is persuing a game theory principle of deliberately putting us on collision course with the EU. The idea being that they will blink first because the alternative of what will happen is just too awful for them to allow. The idea is to force others to make the moves whilst Johnson appears principled and strong, even without a proper strategy and plan for a deal.

And there is the rub. Despite all the Talk of no deal, at some point a deal MUST be made, regardless of whether its before or after 31st October. There is no sense of what that could be and how it could be done. And then there's the prospect of a US deal which suffers from the same lack of tangibility.

All there is, is how things look for a General Election. Nothing else.

Johnson is pitching for an election with no sense of what's needed for Brexit - including the legislation needed for no deal. Not to forget that Cummings, strategist that he is, apparently isn't here for the long haul, only being contracted until 31st October, when he goes for surgery he postponed to take on this job.

So what's the plan for Johnson Post Cummings? Or is he going to do even more 'winging it'.

Meanwhile there's an awful lot of moderate Tory MPs getting very nervous and already failing to stick to the Cummings script.

Johnson, until there is an election is going to firmly blow hot and cool, trying to play to the hopes and fears of leavers and remainers to keep them hanging on to hope and the notion that x or y will happen, when x and y can't possibly both happen because they are completely opposing strategies. Hope leads us blindly to stumble like fools into his trap and to win his reelection.

Next week looks very bumpy indeed. Chances are this thread won't make it past Saturday...

Outsomnia The UK (under May) and the EU agreed an extension until 31 October

It is unclear whether the UK legally can unilaterally end this and Brexit earlier

In any case, the UK needs the time until 31 October to prepare for No Deal - but still can't be ready ! -
and BJ is still paying lip service to the belief by DD and others that the EU will fold at the 59th minute

So he's under no real political pressure to Brexit earlier and he would gain no advantage by doing so

In fact, it would spoil his plan to blame the EU for No Deal

On reflection, I suspect BJ has received legal advice from the Attorney General that he cannot Brexit before 31 October

Otherwise he wouldn't have needed to prorogue

Farage was on Telegraph Choppers Brexit Podcast outlining his future election plans. Worth a listen, Sam Gymiah and Naomi Smith (Best for Britain) are also interviewed.

Farage outlined his election plans in short he sees himself as a kingmaker for Johnson as long as Johnson toes the line with a ‘clean break’ Brexit. BXP would target Labour seats like Yvette Cooper where they could hoover up enough Labour leaver votes to let the Tory’s in. They would stand down in Tory Brexiteers seats.

However if Johnson goes for a deal BXP would stand in every seat against Tory’s.

@GoodwinMJ
Average in UK polls -past month

Conservative 32%
Labour 24%
Lib Dems 18%
Brexit Party 13%
Green 6%
SNP 4%
Plaid 1%

Conservative majority territory but things are highly volatile

Conservative majority territory but things are highly volatile

See - this is what surprises me. Tactical voting, Lab / Conservative, Lib Dem / Conservative and Lib Dem / Labour areas all make this a very interesting potential election.

Nothing can be taken for certain. As Theresa May found out. The Lib Dems being much higher than usual is a whole new mix in the equation.

However if Johnson goes for a deal BXP would stand in every seat against Tory’s

Where a 'deal' means an agreement for an orderly withdrawal. The work to get a 'deal' follows that, just as it has to follow a disorderly withdrawal.

The difference being that a disorderly withdrawal throws away our negotiating cards and means that any one of the 27 can then impose conditions under threat of veto.

So farage is either on a nice little earner or is a masochist. (Boris is public school, where masochism comes with the network)

Peregrina

“5,300 majority, so very vulnerable. Particularly if the other parties do a deal and stand down. But I expect BlowJob to run to find a safe seat.”

But it doesn’t work like that, does it? (Happy to defer to your greater knowledge). In order to stand in another constituency, he would have to stand down as MP for Ruislip first. Unless he was simultaneously elevated to the HoL, he would no longer be PM.

I have a vague recollection that should the WA have been passed earlier then the UK would go into the transition phase at the end of the following month. Not sure if that applies equally if Parliament had voted for No Deal - not that it was going to do that though, so the specific question & answer may not have been addressed

But now that we're into September, that equals 31 October anyway

But all that needs to happen is for the clock to run down

Terrible pity that the great unwashed are not informed as to whether or not we can leave prior to 31/10 isn't it?

We are relying on various fora, the biased press and so on to inform us.

But I think it is a ploy, a game, take it to the wire, frighten the EU and so on.

Another example of people not being informed of the rules, if they exist that is. What an awful shitstorm this is. But anyway thanks for all the information everyone.

But I think it is a ploy, a game, take it to the wire, frighten the EU and so on

I don't think the EU really give a shit, TBH

Immigrants have to pass the Life in the UK test before they get to vote
should the same apply to Brits?

@Frankiestein402 Farage also waxed lyrical about a potential trade deal with US. He has more than one reason for a disorderly Brexit.

chomalungma

I know this. We know this, the hubristic idiots in Johnson's clique might know it too, but are sending out the message to the plebs that UK will prevail and the EU are terrified now.

L of fkn Ls. Sorry

The Get Ready advice is an eye-opener. The stench of uncertainty is overpowering.

For incoming Erasmus students going on exchanges to the UK (who have paid for travel, deposits on accommodation, etc.), it says:
"Contact your home university to check if you can continue studying on your Erasmus+ placement in the UK.
If you have not already started your placement you may not be able to study in the UK. If you have started, you may not get NHS healthcare, student finance or benefits."
If the sodding UK gvmy doesn't even know who can do what, because they are making it up as they go along, HTF is anyone else meant to?
The ineptitude and lack or regard is just staggering..

When does HofC next sit?
Tomorrow?

Yep, they haven't even respected EU citizens in UK either and many other issues beckon also.

A coup is right. All will be well when they take control. So awful, but if anyone knows what we can do I welcome the advice.

Democracy my arse.

Tuesday, @Hoooo.

No respect for anyone. What a shower of shites.

Motherfuckers

So.

Tuesday will be horrifying interesting

Where is the fightback though? I know many are totally horrified, but where do we start now with a few weeks to go?

I am thinking that many are resigned to this coup. Well not me! But I cannot do it alone can I?

If anyone knows about a fightback I would be grateful. But it looks to me that it is inevitable now. How sad is that.

Facebook is fucking scary.

Had a leaver calling us "terrorists".

Ffs

There are the court cases at the moment.
There is Parliament.
There are protests.

...which are all being ignored...