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Brexit

Westminstenders: Game On?

975 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/08/2019 21:35

Johnson has had prorogation approved by the Queen.

There has been widespread outrage and horror both in the UK and in Europe. Johnson has ripped up the principle of Liberal democracy even if constitutionally what he has done is legal. In shredding convention and the 'gentlemans agreement' of understanding we teeter on the edge of democratic collapse.

Talk is tha Dominic Cummings is persuing a game theory principle of deliberately putting us on collision course with the EU. The idea being that they will blink first because the alternative of what will happen is just too awful for them to allow. The idea is to force others to make the moves whilst Johnson appears principled and strong, even without a proper strategy and plan for a deal.

And there is the rub. Despite all the Talk of no deal, at some point a deal MUST be made, regardless of whether its before or after 31st October. There is no sense of what that could be and how it could be done. And then there's the prospect of a US deal which suffers from the same lack of tangibility.

All there is, is how things look for a General Election. Nothing else.

Johnson is pitching for an election with no sense of what's needed for Brexit - including the legislation needed for no deal. Not to forget that Cummings, strategist that he is, apparently isn't here for the long haul, only being contracted until 31st October, when he goes for surgery he postponed to take on this job.

So what's the plan for Johnson Post Cummings? Or is he going to do even more 'winging it'.

Meanwhile there's an awful lot of moderate Tory MPs getting very nervous and already failing to stick to the Cummings script.

Johnson, until there is an election is going to firmly blow hot and cool, trying to play to the hopes and fears of leavers and remainers to keep them hanging on to hope and the notion that x or y will happen, when x and y can't possibly both happen because they are completely opposing strategies. Hope leads us blindly to stumble like fools into his trap and to win his reelection.

Next week looks very bumpy indeed. Chances are this thread won't make it past Saturday...

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prettybird · 01/09/2019 22:22

The more I think about it, the more I believe that the war gaming that Cummings has undertaken involved deliberately provoking the split in the Conservatives, uniting the Opposition and triggering a GE in October - before B-Day.

It's a big gamble as BlowJob might not win it but it's probably his best chance - before the impact of a No Deal Brexit hits. By talking No Deal tough, he gets Faragit and the Turquoise Party working with him rather than against him - he can always stab them in the back after the election, when he doesn't need them any more.

And anyway, even though it's a major gamble, Cummings a) likes gambling, especially against The Establishment and b) as a Nihilist, he doesn't really care whatever the result, as he has no loyalties and c) and contrarily he is so arrogant in his game playing abilities that he can't conceive on not winning Confused

Apileofballyhoo · 01/09/2019 22:22

YW, cat, someone posted it earlier on this thread or another. It's nice to see you back. I take frequent long breaks when I get too upset and stressed out, but I think I've kind of moved on to an acceptance stage now.

Which nobody here should do. Do not accept. DH and I have said we'll go out and protest against anything happening in Ireland. A good friend of mine, aged about 15, was brought by her parents to the January Events in Lithuania. When she had children of her own, she asked them WTF, and her father said it would have been better for them to stop living than continue on as they were under the Soviets. I hope this doesn't come to that.

On the other hand Jeremy Corbyn seems to be good at campaigning and protesting. Perhaps in some kind of weird way he's exactly the person that's needed now, if he's able to put on the fight of his life. Not take back control, take back democracy.

Dontlickthetrolley · 01/09/2019 22:23

I'm really hoping there's along queue of people crossing the floor on Tuesday.

I've just spent the last hour catching up on the last 36 hours and I want to cry. How the hell has it got to this? But feel this week is going to be ramped up even more, hold on to your hats everyone, it's going to be -even more--bumpy

Peregrina · 01/09/2019 22:24

I wonder how May will vote? After all, she tried her best to get a deal, so she surely won't be able to vote for No Deal?

Dontlickthetrolley · 01/09/2019 22:24

Sorry about the spelling and -strike through- errors in that Blush

Dontlickthetrolley · 01/09/2019 22:25

Bollocks

TokyoSushi · 01/09/2019 22:26

I might drop them a little note too @Peregrina

colouringinpro · 01/09/2019 22:27

Timely programme about the troubles on Ch4. 30 years they lasted Sad

GaspodeWonderCat · 01/09/2019 22:29

www.stopthecoup.org.uk/

This website lists the protests and links to 'stop the coup'. Think this is the one people were talking about earlier.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 01/09/2019 22:32

It is :)

protests thread www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3677475-Protests-against-the-Prorogation-of-Parliament

Outsomnia · 01/09/2019 22:33

twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1168266343793221632

Yep. We need this.

Also listen to the podcast on LBC with James O'Brien. Called "Full Disclosure" Not much about Brexit but what an interesting life so far!

OhYouBadBadKitten · 01/09/2019 22:33

Well done thecat

Peregrina · 01/09/2019 22:37

'They' i.e,. Johnson, with his strings pulled by Cummings are now talking about withdrawing the whip and deselecting those who abstain.

gutrotweins · 01/09/2019 22:46

peregrina
One can only assume they've got candidates to replace the deselected MPs should an election happen soon! Maybe they're going to power share constituencies.
What a load of fascist tossers.

Icantreachthepretzels · 01/09/2019 22:47

'They' i.e,. Johnson, with his strings pulled by Cummings are now talking about withdrawing the whip and deselecting those who abstain.

Do Johnson and Cummings understand what a majority is and why they need one?
And that they have to be allowed a GE by parliament? And that mps who have been deselected have absolutely no motivation to vote for an election - they won't vote to lose their job (unlike your average leave voter).

Butterymuffin · 01/09/2019 22:48

Let's say the Johnson / Cummings plan is to provoke a rebellion in order to lose a vote of no confidence and thus get to an election asap. Is there still the 14 day period where an alternative government can be formed if they can command a majority, or does proroguation stop that?

chomalungma · 01/09/2019 22:51

Is there still the 14 day period where an alternative government can be formed if they can command a majority, or does proroguation stop that

I wonder what the Queen thinks on that one...

Apileofballyhoo · 01/09/2019 22:54

I got a really lovely reply from Dominic Grieve in April saying he appreciated support and kind words. I made it clear I'm not in the UK or a citizen so it wasn't like he needed to reply to a constituent or something. I think anybody who has time should send a mail.

chomalungma · 01/09/2019 22:54

If of course they try that tactic, then Labour MPs just need to vote for confidence in the Government - thus ruling out him bypassing the 14 day bit and saying that Parliament needs to be prorogued.

Then Johnson needs to try ruling without a majority. That fails....and then we are into interesting territory.

chomalungma · 01/09/2019 22:58

Is there still the 14 day period where an alternative government can be formed if they can command a majority, or does proroguation stop that

I heard that Johnson has broken the 'Good chap' theory when it came to proroguation. Yes Prime Minister has lots about this theory.

He is playing dirty and not following established conventions. I wouldn't trust him on any precedent.

TokyoSushi · 01/09/2019 22:59

I've emailed Grieve, Gauke & Hammond to say thank you, please don't give up now.

I bet they don't receive very many nice emails although they might be a bit too busy this week to reply!

BigChocFrenzy · 01/09/2019 23:07

Legally, looks like the FTPA and the (up to) 14 days should override any prorogation

However, Corbyn has said this coming week is the last chance to avoid No Deal,
so Labour sound unwilling to take the chance of BJ breaking the rules

  • there may not be actual penalties for this, so why wouldn't he / Cummings?

3 possible outcomes to a VoNC:

  • If the govt win the VoNC, then no change to the situation

  • If the Opposition win a VoNC and get a majority for their candidate then he / she becomes PM and can stop prorogation, request an extension etc

  • if the Opposition win a VoNC but then a couple of rebel Tory MP chicken out / deliberately lie,
    then there will be a GE and BJ can choose it to be say 7 November, with parliament shut down for the preceding 5 weeks.

BigChocFrenzy · 01/09/2019 23:09

Laws without effective penalties for breaking them are meaningless when dealing with sociopaths in positions of power

tobee · 01/09/2019 23:14

Who are the government's legal eagles? I know there's Geoffrey Cox, who I know is Leave but is he also a nihilist?

Motheroffourdragons · 01/09/2019 23:19

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