Westminstenders: Game On?

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has had prorogation approved by the Queen.

There has been widespread outrage and horror both in the UK and in Europe. Johnson has ripped up the principle of Liberal democracy even if constitutionally what he has done is legal. In shredding convention and the 'gentlemans agreement' of understanding we teeter on the edge of democratic collapse.

Talk is tha Dominic Cummings is persuing a game theory principle of deliberately putting us on collision course with the EU. The idea being that they will blink first because the alternative of what will happen is just too awful for them to allow. The idea is to force others to make the moves whilst Johnson appears principled and strong, even without a proper strategy and plan for a deal.

And there is the rub. Despite all the Talk of no deal, at some point a deal MUST be made, regardless of whether its before or after 31st October. There is no sense of what that could be and how it could be done. And then there's the prospect of a US deal which suffers from the same lack of tangibility.

All there is, is how things look for a General Election. Nothing else.

Johnson is pitching for an election with no sense of what's needed for Brexit - including the legislation needed for no deal. Not to forget that Cummings, strategist that he is, apparently isn't here for the long haul, only being contracted until 31st October, when he goes for surgery he postponed to take on this job.

So what's the plan for Johnson Post Cummings? Or is he going to do even more 'winging it'.

Meanwhile there's an awful lot of moderate Tory MPs getting very nervous and already failing to stick to the Cummings script.

Johnson, until there is an election is going to firmly blow hot and cool, trying to play to the hopes and fears of leavers and remainers to keep them hanging on to hope and the notion that x or y will happen, when x and y can't possibly both happen because they are completely opposing strategies. Hope leads us blindly to stumble like fools into his trap and to win his reelection.

Next week looks very bumpy indeed. Chances are this thread won't make it past Saturday...

I get that but hopefully there's some sensible tactical voting amongst opposition parties to counter BJ scooping up the Brexit followers. Nothing short of a fire and brimstone exit will satisfy Farage so he will continue to rally the nut jobs who vote for him.

www.gov.uk/government/news/get-ready-for-brexit-campaign-launched

It's like beloved Manchester's Olympic Bid "Up and Going ". Unsuccessful bid.

Many Labour MPs in seats vulnerable to Tories - or to LDems, SNP, Plaid - would be very afraid of a GE

You would have thought that last time. I lost count of the number of reports I read in the Press about how people have always voted Labour and couldn't vote for Corbyn, so would vote Tory. But May lost her majority.

I think the only real certainty in an election would be to see the Tories wiped out in Scotland.

The key audience is those businesses of all sizes, which haven't yet realised they need to do anything
There will be more serious problems than can be planned for, if they don't wake up

I'd expect the campaign to reassure the public that there is nothing to worry about, to keep them quiet until No Deal has happened

The "Is there anything wrong with this page?" question at the bottom made me laugh, bellinis.

I've chosen this weekend to finally watch "Brexit: The Uncivil War". It's excruciating.

Ties in very well with what's being said about Cummings here. He's actually a type I'm very familiar with, alas.

Yep, I expect the SNP to return to near 2015 seat numbers
and the LDems should also gain some seats, but probably well below 2015

If Corbyn is suckered into a November GE, that would give BJ his best chance of winning a good majority:
No Deal delivered, but no time for it to bite hard

The longer that No Deal effects accumulate, the worse BJ's chances get

For three + years we have been muttering to each other really.

Time to make a stand. But it will not happen. British people are just so tolerant and non confrontational. That is what the Johnson/Cummings administration is relying on now.

Look what they have gotten away with so far!

Awful stuff really, but what can be done? There is no effective opposition/remain group to get behind anymore. Another part of the perfect storm I suppose.

Unfortunately, the tolerant and non-confrontational folk are mostly uncommitted, or on the Remain side
with the authoritarians - who are lapping all this up - on the Leave side

We need to join with soft Leavers who are not keen on going down the nihilist route

Seems almost irrelevant given recent events but can anyone explan what the legal position was re
Dominic Cummings's contempt of Parliament and subsequent admishment by the house. Doesn't that mean he acted illegally?
publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmprivi/1490/149003.htm3.
In such cases what should happen - should the police investigate? Probably seems a futile question just now but I suppose I'm hoping for a reckoning one day for this most odious individual.

BigChocFrenzy

Seems to me that the so called "soft Leavers" have no home to go to either, just like full on Remainers and those who think this current path is insane no matter what way they voted in the referendum.

There doesn't seem to be anywhere to go now to oppose this.

The opposite of Democracy IMV.

I think his attack on the monarchy was timed to convince the Queen how easy it is for him to stoke anti-royal sentiment.

Which underscores (once again) what a crock we were sold to keep the monarchy in power oh, the Queen isn't influenced by popular opinion, like a politician ....

Heads you lose, tails you lose.

"Contempt of Parliament" is another quaint convention that has no legal teeth

Something else that relies on everyone being "gentlemen"

Most other countries in Europe have either experienced dictatorship, or were next door to countries that did

The UK, in its complacency, has no legal protections against these first few steps on the path away from democracy
Our laws only step in later
Let's hope it is enough

As repeated ad nauseum:

Neither the Queen nor a President can stop an executive that is acting legally, however immorally

The fault lies with the Constitution that does not ban these government actions

The other big problem is that the coutry is evenly divided between Leavers and Brexiters

So even if the Queen / President decided to stop a legal govt action,
which half of the country should they support and which half of the coutry should they override ?

I am sure there is a reason, but why has UK not left already and said Sayonara to the EU?

Why wait until October 31st? If you know what you want, go for it.

Can anyone explain the delay for me?

If by some miracle MPs head off the option for no deal this week. Then what happens? The EU have to be requested to extend - can Parliament instruct the PM to request an extension? Then what happens? Would BJ be fatally wounded if we are still in the EU after 31 October? The clamour for Brexit will still be there. I agree that denying BJ a GE seems wise - although the thought of 5 years is horrifying; the lying and fearmongering and US pressure would carry on and be believed as so many people seem unable to face reality.

Some are saying on here that the only way to puncture the no deal Brexit cult is the reality of no deal and a GE only once the effects have sunk in but this shower will blame the EU, remoaners, MPs...and our right wing press will do their usual.As many have said the ultra right wing agenda will be rolled out. By then we have left. We can't just rejoin the EU when we realise we want to It isn't the National Trust
What should we be hoping for if we can get past 31 October in one piece?

ohrh.law.ox.ac.uk/prorogation-constitutional-principle-and-law-fact-and-causation/
Prorogation: Constitutional Principle and Law, Fact and Causation
Paul Craig

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Paul Craig is perhaps the UK's leading authority on constitutional law

Whack

If Craig is intervening, and in such stark terms, then things are afoot

Expect the courts to consider the prorogation litigation seriously

I had previously thought the chances of the courts intervening on prorogation to be zero, not least for want of remedy

Still think the claims will fail, as ultimately not law but politics

But getting sense judges are not going to make this an easy win for the government

That Craig piece may be as significant as the Hickman et al piece after the referendum which ultimately led to Pannick's victory in the Miller case

Another Silver Surfer of a legal article, heralding a big crunch

Reading that Craig piece makes you think @thatginamiller and Pannick may well pull off another legal victory and that the courts may well strike down the prorogation

On balance unlikely, but the chances are certainly no longer zero

ps I am sometimes incorrectly described as a "constitutional expert"

I am not

I am merely a constitutionalist who believes you either take constitutional principles seriously or you do not

Craig is a constitutional expert, and that is what constitutional expertise looks like

And linked to Carpediem's question, what reason is going to be given for requesting the extension if there is no intention of having a GE or passing the WA, or a variant of it?

The hubris of UK leavers will bite them in the bum in the long run.

EU is watching and thinking, OK, go now why don't you? As in tomorrow thanks and goodbye.

But no, UK will not go at a time of their own choosing, but on a day dictated by EU . Marvellous!

I am totally baffled about this 31/10 date. UK could actually decide to leave tomorrow.

Why don't they want to do this given their love of No Deal?

Would love to know.

news.sky.com/story/javid-bids-to-convince-city-of-brexit-opportunity-11799908
Javid bids to convince City of Brexit 'opportunity'
Execs from Barclays, Goldman Sachs and HSBC will hold talks about a no-deal Brexit with the chancellor on Monday, Sky News learns.

Simple enough, outsomnia
May, who requested the extensions, didn't want No Deal
BJ and those around him do

David Allen Green@davidallengreen
In essence, Craig argues (persuasively IMO) that the principles which underpin a range of leading constitutional case decisions mean that the court would have scope to prevent any attempt to undermine parliament by executive's misuse of prorogation

And he says De Keyser

Big Choc

That really doesn't stop a leave tomorrow though, does it?

I cannot understand the standoff. Well I think it is a game of chicken with the EU now. And I doubt the EU will blink first.

If they do it is the end of the EU anyway and they know it.

If (however unlikely) the UK requests another extension, it would be to have a GE before Brexit, for which the EU have so far said they would extend

and then - after a GE win by Labour (even more unlikely !) a longer extension to negotiate a different PD and then a PV