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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:11

PS I'm away this weekend. I may or may not be online (most unlikely not as I have a LOT on).

OP posts:
Lisette1940 · 28/08/2019 11:12

Thanks Red.

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 11:12

Horrified and very weary pmk

bellinisurge · 28/08/2019 11:14

Thank you Red.
Bercow tweeted that this was a "constitutional outrage ". It ain't over.

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 11:17

I don't want to upset anyone but...

Whose assassination do we think will tip us into a civil war?

😔😔😔😔😔😔😔😔😔

ImNotYourGranny · 28/08/2019 11:17

I have so much to do today but have been totally knocked for six with this turn of events. So I'm eating chocolate instead and trying not to cry.

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 11:17

.

BirdandSparrow · 28/08/2019 11:17

Well, fuck me, it's about to get really fucking messy, isn't it? I'm a Brit/irish abroad in Spain and watching this just totally open mouthed. Hopefully my Spanish citizenship will come through before the end of the transition period that Spain has granted us Brits here (even without a deal).

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 11:19

I'm off to cuddle my kids.

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 11:19

Song for the day: Won't Get Fooled Again ... the opening verse Sad

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 28/08/2019 11:19

Pmk

Motheroffourdragons · 28/08/2019 11:20

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

SistemaAddict · 28/08/2019 11:21

I'm so angry and anxious about the future of our country.

Lumisade · 28/08/2019 11:21

Is Scottish Independence now an inevitability?

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 11:22

PMK with updated flow chart.

Still think he's being unbelievably optimistic about No Deal at only 20%. I've been at 80% for months... and clearly I'm always right, ha!

Edit: Over my image allowance for the day - Jon Worth has a new flowchart up already on Twitter if any one wants it / cares to post on the thread

Motheroffourdragons · 28/08/2019 11:23

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

TheElementsSong · 28/08/2019 11:23

PMK with a weary lack of surprise. God, I actually wish I was surprised.

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 28/08/2019 11:24

Thanks red

CrunchyCarrot · 28/08/2019 11:24

I am fucking furious and if I had cats they would have fled!!!

Thanks Red for your wonderful updates as usual [flower]

Hazardtired · 28/08/2019 11:24

I've just spent a few moments crouched on the kitchen floor after reading the news while silently mouthing FUCK.

Ta red

TokyoSushi · 28/08/2019 11:25

PM flippin K, I wondered if this might happen, but I certainly didn't think that it would happen today!

It looks as if we might look back on the previous political nightmares as sunshine and flowers, as of 9ish this morning, things just got much, much worse - recommence the stockpiling!

Thanks as always @RedToothBrushRed

MaudBaileysGreenTurban · 28/08/2019 11:25

PMK.

Fuck.

He's done it, hasn't he?

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 11:25

Sebastian Payne

"🚨 No.10 threatening an election 🚨

"If MPs pass a no confidence vote next week then we won’t resign. We won’t recommend another government, we’ll dissolve parliament, call an election between November 1-5 and there’ll be zero chance of Grieve legislation,” says senior official.

For those asking how: Downing Street would sit out 14 day cooling-off period in the Fixed Term Parliament Act, then call an election on a date of their choosing soon after Oct 31.

They don’t think numbers are there for a caretaker govt, and might be right

Apileofballyhoo · 28/08/2019 11:28

Thanks Red. I wish your post did not confirm everything I thought.

lonelyplanetmum · 28/08/2019 11:30

PMK with a fuck as well.

Surely there'll be a VNC?